JKEisMan Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Sure feels great to have such superb model consistency within 24 hours of an event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Kbosch said: Sure feels great to have such superb model consistency within 24 hours of an event. First rate. High certainty consistency. No doubt at all! ahahahahahhahhaa some show something others are not seeing and vice Versa. Deepening? Not deepening? Missed phasing? BL? Idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Kbosch said: Sure feels great to have such superb model consistency within 24 hours of an event. #fastflow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, JKEisMan said: Probably the most robust model run in the last like 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 0z HRRR shows a half inch for Hartford! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 This is just strictly going to be a nowcasting situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 0z HRRR shows a half inch for Hartford!There’s gonna be some deflated weenies in the morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: #fastflowingtears Indeed. Widespread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, Kbosch said: Sure feels great to have such superb model consistency within 24 hours of an event. Instead of dealing with data issues on the v16 and FV3, NCEP should commission a team to study why all of its models are so different so close in this winter. It's not enough to say that each model has its own idiosyncrasies, because garbage in = garbage out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, 78Blizzard said: Instead of dealing with data issues on the v16 and FV3, NCEP should commission a team to study why all of its models are so different so close in this winter. It's not enough to say that each model has its own idiosyncrasies, because garbage in = garbage out. It feels like more than COVID, luck, and event type...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, 78Blizzard said: Instead of dealing with data issues on the v16 and FV3, NCEP should commission a team to study why all of its models are so different so close in this winter. It's not enough to say that each model has its own idiosyncrasies, because garbage in = garbage out. The GFS outputs for the entire globe. Why does NCEP care that much about a margin of error of 50 miles on a storm in such a small geographic area? Not making excuses here, it's just that New England snowfall accuracy in the coastal plain is just one of millions of chaotic events going on at any given time that the models need to predict. That being said, if the US put the same resources into weather modeling like the ECMWF does, we would be better for it. We used to be the best at this, and we no longer are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: The GFS outputs for the entire globe. Why does NCEP care that much about a margin of error of 50 miles on a storm in such a small geographic area? Not making excuses here, it's just that New England snowfall accuracy in the coastal plain is just one of millions of chaotic events going on at any given time that the models need to predict. That being said, if the US put the same resources into weather modeling like the ECMWF does, we would be better for it. We used to be the best at this, and we no longer are. Unless you know the accuracy of it around the globe, you just can't say it's a local issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Instead of dealing with data issues on the v16 and FV3, NCEP should commission a team to study why all of its models are so different so close in this winter. It's not enough to say that each model has its own idiosyncrasies, because garbage in = garbage out. I don’t think it’s possible. Math is math but resolution and meso vs global and other things. Good Mets determine which set of parameters works best in each situation. The models aren’t designed so that a bunch of weenies can feel confident. Model biases are known and past performance creates certain expectations. Garbage in garbage out is too easy and likely unfair. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: The GFS outputs for the entire globe. Why does NCEP care that much about a margin of error of 50 miles on a storm in such a small geographic area? Not making excuses here, it's just that New England snowfall accuracy in the coastal plain is just one of millions of chaotic events going on at any given time that the models need to predict. That being said, if the US put the same resources into weather modeling like the ECMWF does, we would be better for it. We used to be the best at this, and we no longer are. ECMWF is not a government entity as far as I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t think it’s possible. Math is math but resolution and meso vs global and other things. Good Mets determine which set of parameters works best in each situation. The models aren’t designed so that a bunch of weenies can feel confident. Model biases are known and past performance creates certain expectations. Garbage in garbage out is too easy and likely unfair. All I can say is that if the long-standing GFS has been so accurate, why are they replacing it? It is not getting an upgrade as has been done in the past and has been done with the Euro. It is being replaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I’ve always found the NWS site and products to be reasonably good even back in the 2000s the site thoroughness and design sure as hell beats Canada! GFS yeah it’s so so But NWS and NOAA so streamlined and thorough and they work hard and they don’t just tell you the weather. They write a big blog... tell you why! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: ECMWF is not a government entity as far as I know. "The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organization supported by most of the nations of Europe" -Wikipedia. Yes, not a branch of the EU. But we can still do better. We know how the ebbs and flows of politics have affected NOAA the last 10-20 years... but you are 100% correct in your response. The reason why humans interpret models and predict weather is because models aren't perfect, even as they improve and gain resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: All I can say is that if the long-standing GFS has been so accurate, why are they replacing it? It is not getting an upgrade as has been done in the past and has been done with the Euro. It is being replaced. We can’t compete with the euro-it’s much better funded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 CMC ticked east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: CMC ticked east It did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Canadian brought some of the heavier stuff NW a tad, and the lighter stuff east a tad. Goal posts narrowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian brought some of the heavier stuff NW a tad, and the lighter stuff east a tad. Goal posts narrowing. 4-8 PYM-PVD-BDL-ORH-LWM 6-10 SE to HYA 4-8 east of HYA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Think I’m going 3-5” here. But hope I’m wrong and we get 6”+. Should be an interesting nowcast with the bands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Warnings to Tyngsborough? Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: White rain. Funny thing is it never changed over to rain here. It's the most snow I've ever seen fall without anything happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Outside of the NAM, it seems that most meso / major models have significantly pulled back on QPF output. Baring an overnight shift, looks like 2-4 is more likely for Boston, with points south in the 3-6 range, and 4-8 from Plymouth, MA down through upper Cape Cod. Unfortunate given the potential, but at least we have few additional clippers to monitor over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, CCHurricane said: Outside of the NAM, it seems that most meso / major models have significantly pulled back on QPF output. Baring an overnight shift, looks like 2-4 is more likely for Boston, with points south in the 3-6 range, and 4-8 from Plymouth, MA down through upper Cape Cod. Unfortunate given the potential, but at least we have few additional clippers to monitor over the next few days. Clippers? More like pacific west to East runs with us on the good side of the boundary. Also, 6Z NAM crushes BOS pretty good and metro west as well. I’ll be surprised if it isn’t 4-8+ in most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6z NAM is good and others are Coming NW. Come On!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 BOX cut back a little... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now