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Quick Hitter Coastal Threat, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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25 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Wiz, Kev, this storm is quite impressive down south.  Numerous lightning clusters throughout the eastern Florida waters, over Florida and along the central and northern Gulf coast.  Also the southern stream system is quite dynamic producing its own convection and lightning.  Also, the system is being aided by two areas of vorticity merging.  Our surface low is very broad with surface pressures in a large area of 1008-1010mb.

A strong storm and big snow are not mutually exclusive here. The storm can be as strong as it wants, but if it’s not close enough, it’s not going to matter.

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31 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

More or less my thoughts. The big problem is that with the parallel band is that underneath it will be great, but if you move it 25-50 miles your forecast looks pretty bad in two locations (where you thought the band would be, and where it moved to). 

Geology really screwed us on that one. That and the Green Mountains stealing all NH's upslope.

Yeah ...I don't know- do y'all have protocols for this sort of lateral banded routine ?

I give them a pass on this because the ability to see exactly where the axis aligns is outside of the purview of the technology.  It seems to me the band, albeit more likely southern CT to SE zones down here cannot be ruled out as ending up NW by 30 clicks then suddenly ORH-BED is unprepared -

I think this is just one of those unsavory situations where hands are cuffed to responsibility, to keep the public aware, while not having the best of confidence in the what/why, discretely.

Not that anyone asked but this looks like a moderate impactor ceiling to me, primary SE but I wouldn't bet the farm either.  The NAM comes back at 00z with .8" at logan, suddenly ORH-BED are getting 6" in 3 hrs

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12 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

I'm going to hazard an overproducer vs. under here in Worcester. Just a feeling that slightly better QPF and 15:1 ratios will help us. Maybe a bit like the proverbial Dec 29, 2012 event.

In general, as long as you’re close enough to the storm this is because of land elevated lower temps and even orographic support? 

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