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Quick Hitter Coastal Threat, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If you look at all the 700mb and banding output on Mesos.. there’s a nice signal of a heavier mid level band from about  DXR to BDL to ORH to Ray 

Haven’t had time to look, can you share some of the banding progs you see? They usually end up a bit NW.

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If you look at all the 700mb and banding output on Mesos.. there’s a nice signal of a heavier mid level band from about  DXR to BDL to ORH to Ray 

was thinking the same... probably why ALY is still sticking with 4-6" for Litchfield county... I could definitely see some banding setting up NW of the coast, with higher ratios to boot... still only expect 3 or 4 imby, but we'll see, about 12 hours from go so almost now casting

edit: also ALY went to advisory now at the 1500 update, so there's that.

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Just now, tavwtby said:

was thinking the same... probably why ALY is still sticking with 4-6" for Litchfield county... I could definitely see some banding setting up NW of the coast, with higher ratios to boot... still only expect 3 or 4 imby, but we'll see, about 12 hours from go so almost now casting

Your area is tough. I think Litchfield Cty is the line between 4-8 and 3-6.  Seems like it could go either way . The cutbacks on some maps are likely going to regret doing it . Gotta look past snow maps and qpf 

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BOX discussion is a good read but not sure I buy the great snow growth for the ORH-BOS-PVD triangle. Esp on some of these solutions where the banding isn’t getting much NW of SE MA...PVD might be best spot in that triangle. The best omega is well above the SGZ on a lot of soundings I checked. However, very frequently we’ll see the fronto bands get a little NW of guidance so using that logic you could make a case. 

Still, I’m not all that enthusiastic about warning snows here. BOS-PVD may be in a decent spot but worried that we’ll be too far NW in the 495 belt and westward. 

On the edge here on the GFS, not a bad look with some instability.  Nowcast situation setting up as us usually the case with these southern streamers. Hopefully we see a bump back NW at 0Z

gfs_2021020618_024_41.75--71.75.png

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Herpes does best inside 36. We shall see

I think we're looking at a solid high end adv/ low end warning event spread across much of CT and SNE. 4-8" for our area i think is the best call right now. We're a little lower than NWS but higher than a lot of people getting spooked and cutting back. 

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Wiz, Kev, this storm is quite impressive down south.  Numerous lightning clusters throughout the eastern Florida waters, over Florida and along the central and northern Gulf coast.  Also the southern stream system is quite dynamic producing its own convection and lightning.  Also, the system is being aided by two areas of vorticity merging.  Our surface low is very broad with surface pressures in a large area of 1008-1010mb.

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28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BOX discussion is a good read but not sure I buy the great snow growth for the ORH-BOS-PVD triangle. Esp on some of these solutions where the banding isn’t getting much NW of SE MA...PVD might be best spot in that triangle. The best omega is well above the SGZ on a lot of soundings I checked. However, very frequently we’ll see the fronto bands get a little NW of guidance so using that logic you could make a case. 

Still, I’m not all that enthusiastic about warning snows here. BOS-PVD may be in a decent spot but worried that we’ll be too far NW in the 495 belt and westward. 

More or less my thoughts. The big problem is that with the parallel band is that underneath it will be great, but if you move it 25-50 miles your forecast looks pretty bad in two locations (where you thought the band would be, and where it moved to). 

16 minutes ago, PWMan said:

The AFD is a great read. Gotta do something about the shape of the ME coast... 

Geology really screwed us on that one. That and the Green Mountains stealing all NH's upslope.

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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BOX discussion is a good read but not sure I buy the great snow growth for the ORH-BOS-PVD triangle. Esp on some of these solutions where the banding isn’t getting much NW of SE MA...PVD might be best spot in that triangle. The best omega is well above the SGZ on a lot of soundings I checked. However, very frequently we’ll see the fronto bands get a little NW of guidance so using that logic you could make a case. 

Still, I’m not all that enthusiastic about warning snows here. BOS-PVD may be in a decent spot but worried that we’ll be too far NW in the 495 belt and westward. 

Feel pretty good we’re close to the crosshairs here.  Should rip for a few hours at 1-2”/hr.  Think 6-8” is not a bad call and maybe we can squeak out 10” if higher ratios (12:1 / 14:1) can be had.

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10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Wiz, Kev, this storm is quite impressive down south.  Numerous lightning clusters throughout the eastern Florida waters, over Florida and along the central and northern Gulf coast.  Also the southern stream system is quite dynamic producing its own convection and lightning.  Also, the system is being aided by two areas of vorticity merging.  Our surface low is very broad with surface pressures in a large area of 1008-1010mb.

We tried to tell him 

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