Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think TAN may be even too far NW for warning amounts....especially if we tic East another cycle Your map from yesterday will end up verifying. Remember that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 If you look at all the 700mb and banding output on Mesos.. there’s a nice signal of a heavier mid level band from about DXR to BDL to ORH to Ray 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Looks meh. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 30 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm just having a hard time justifying QPF much over 0.25" for most of my area. It's going to be hard to crank out 4-5 inches of snow that way. The AFD is a great read. Gotta do something about the shape of the ME coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, PWMan said: The AFD is a great read. Gotta do something about the shape of the ME coast... We set back to far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If you look at all the 700mb and banding output on Mesos.. there’s a nice signal of a heavier mid level band from about DXR to BDL to ORH to Ray Haven’t had time to look, can you share some of the banding progs you see? They usually end up a bit NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If you look at all the 700mb and banding output on Mesos.. there’s a nice signal of a heavier mid level band from about DXR to BDL to ORH to Ray was thinking the same... probably why ALY is still sticking with 4-6" for Litchfield county... I could definitely see some banding setting up NW of the coast, with higher ratios to boot... still only expect 3 or 4 imby, but we'll see, about 12 hours from go so almost now casting edit: also ALY went to advisory now at the 1500 update, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, tavwtby said: was thinking the same... probably why ALY is still sticking with 4-6" for Litchfield county... I could definitely see some banding setting up NW of the coast, with higher ratios to boot... still only expect 3 or 4 imby, but we'll see, about 12 hours from go so almost now casting Your area is tough. I think Litchfield Cty is the line between 4-8 and 3-6. Seems like it could go either way . The cutbacks on some maps are likely going to regret doing it . Gotta look past snow maps and qpf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 HRGEM bumped NW as well with a nice bump up in qpf across the area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BOX discussion is a good read but not sure I buy the great snow growth for the ORH-BOS-PVD triangle. Esp on some of these solutions where the banding isn’t getting much NW of SE MA...PVD might be best spot in that triangle. The best omega is well above the SGZ on a lot of soundings I checked. However, very frequently we’ll see the fronto bands get a little NW of guidance so using that logic you could make a case. Still, I’m not all that enthusiastic about warning snows here. BOS-PVD may be in a decent spot but worried that we’ll be too far NW in the 495 belt and westward. On the edge here on the GFS, not a bad look with some instability. Nowcast situation setting up as us usually the case with these southern streamers. Hopefully we see a bump back NW at 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Haven’t had time to look, can you share some of the banding progs you see? They usually end up a bit NW. When you get some time later .. take a look . It won’t take you long to see it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: HRGEM bumped NW as well with a nice bump up in qpf across the area. Herpes does best inside 36. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I’m in a likely decent place for this. Surrounded by higher hills just to our north, which can’t hurt either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Haven’t had time to look, can you share some of the banding progs you see? They usually end up a bit NW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Herpes does best inside 36. We shall see I think we're looking at a solid high end adv/ low end warning event spread across much of CT and SNE. 4-8" for our area i think is the best call right now. We're a little lower than NWS but higher than a lot of people getting spooked and cutting back. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Wiz, Kev, this storm is quite impressive down south. Numerous lightning clusters throughout the eastern Florida waters, over Florida and along the central and northern Gulf coast. Also the southern stream system is quite dynamic producing its own convection and lightning. Also, the system is being aided by two areas of vorticity merging. Our surface low is very broad with surface pressures in a large area of 1008-1010mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 think the 700 fronto will be the key, and as I said higher ratios, so hopefully we get a few hours of good growth... my area tends to do well in the 84 corridor divider events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Even though the 2/6 NAM is further south with the track near the BM compared to the 2/5 run, it is a quite a bit stronger at the surface center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 38 minutes ago, Patfan1987 said: NWS has lowell getting 6-8. I don’t buy it. 4-8" is going to be tough, probably more like 3-5". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 They put on a Weenie Band for Cory! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, TheSnowman said: They put on a Weenie Band for Cory! uh-oh kiss of death for CorEy Think this plays out as a slightly tamer 12/29/12, do like that as an analog. I got a lot ridin on this storm, im the thread starter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BOX discussion is a good read but not sure I buy the great snow growth for the ORH-BOS-PVD triangle. Esp on some of these solutions where the banding isn’t getting much NW of SE MA...PVD might be best spot in that triangle. The best omega is well above the SGZ on a lot of soundings I checked. However, very frequently we’ll see the fronto bands get a little NW of guidance so using that logic you could make a case. Still, I’m not all that enthusiastic about warning snows here. BOS-PVD may be in a decent spot but worried that we’ll be too far NW in the 495 belt and westward. More or less my thoughts. The big problem is that with the parallel band is that underneath it will be great, but if you move it 25-50 miles your forecast looks pretty bad in two locations (where you thought the band would be, and where it moved to). 16 minutes ago, PWMan said: The AFD is a great read. Gotta do something about the shape of the ME coast... Geology really screwed us on that one. That and the Green Mountains stealing all NH's upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BOX discussion is a good read but not sure I buy the great snow growth for the ORH-BOS-PVD triangle. Esp on some of these solutions where the banding isn’t getting much NW of SE MA...PVD might be best spot in that triangle. The best omega is well above the SGZ on a lot of soundings I checked. However, very frequently we’ll see the fronto bands get a little NW of guidance so using that logic you could make a case. Still, I’m not all that enthusiastic about warning snows here. BOS-PVD may be in a decent spot but worried that we’ll be too far NW in the 495 belt and westward. Feel pretty good we’re close to the crosshairs here. Should rip for a few hours at 1-2”/hr. Think 6-8” is not a bad call and maybe we can squeak out 10” if higher ratios (12:1 / 14:1) can be had. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Feel pretty good we’re close to the crosshairs here. Should rip for a few hours at 1-2”/hr. Think 6-8” is not a bad call and maybe we can squeak out 10” if higher ratios (12:1 / 14:1) can be had. how much did TAN get last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Wiz, Kev, this storm is quite impressive down south. Numerous lightning clusters throughout the eastern Florida waters, over Florida and along the central and northern Gulf coast. Also the southern stream system is quite dynamic producing its own convection and lightning. Also, the system is being aided by two areas of vorticity merging. Our surface low is very broad with surface pressures in a large area of 1008-1010mb. We tried to tell him 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Herpes ftmfw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: how much did TAN get last week I only got 3” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I could see some areas starting as a period of rain while they wet bulb out on the Cape and Islands. Maybe an hour or 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That and the Green Mountains stealing all NH's upslope. Not all of it... Although some folks at GYX certainly seem to think that with their forecasts for upslope here. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natedizel Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 This winter like Cam Newton in RI. Meh 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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