Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,592
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Manpower
    Newest Member
    Manpower
    Joined

Quick Hitter Coastal Threat, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Lol....I finally noticed SV changed their scale.  My excitement went up a notch!

the freaking NWS just issued the updated statement with the WSW for the Cape, they are now expecting mostly rain on the outer Cape with 1-3" of snow now expected.  What is the crap with this?  Why such a warm forecast?

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

IS this compared to forecast or just a observation not related to modeling

Bc there has been something getting this to Tick se on modeling...nothing major just small moves..like maybe N stream acting as kicker

Nam was the last zonked model to go SE....12z looked beautiful and Euro was decent at 12z so would have been nice to see nam not cut totals in half for 495

It's a close situation...i could see this come back another 25 miles NW or do a few more east tickles 

It is an observation, looking at the H5 mesoanalysis page at H5, it shows the orientation of the northern stream trough being positive and the southern stream is east of the trough axis.  Again, rain is not happening here, maybe CHH and the National Seashore, and maybe ACK for a bit, but the latest NAM guidance shows all snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It is an observation, looking at the H5 mesoanalysis page at H5, it shows the orientation of the northern stream trough being positive and the southern stream is east of the trough axis.  Again, rain is not happening here, maybe CHH and the National Seashore, and maybe ACK for a bit, but the latest NAM guidance shows all snow.

Well, im routing for you James, but i wouldn't bet against the NWS. 

I would LOVE the Northern stream to stop slowing down and acting as a kicker. But given the trends last 12 hours i would guess messenger tickle east or two from here on out and this ends up a i-95 storm for S CT/ Central/ E Ri/ SE mass ( maybe including Bos ) .....but that is based on the assumption we see some East tickles

The ceiling and accumulation goal posts for SNE ... on this looks higher than usual ..given how it's juicy and gets strong quickly...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Well, im routing for you James, but i wouldn't bet against the NWS. 

I would LOVE the Northern stream to stop slowing down and acting as a kicker. But given the trends last 12 hours i would guess messenger tickle east or two from here on out and this ends up a i-95 storm for S CT/ Central/ E Ri/ SE mass (Bos SE) .....but that is based on the assumption we see some East tickles

The ceiling and accumulation goal posts for SNE ... on this looks higher than usual ..given how it's juicy and gets strong quickly...

That is the only reason I see why the Outer Cape would rain is the storm is stronger and produces a more intense low level easterly jet, but the dynamics offset any boundary layer warming as the models show that at 925mb the temps are below -3C and 850mb below -7C.  That is plenty cold for all snow even on the Cape.  Also omega approaches 40 microbars in the Dendritic Growth Zone (-12 to -18C).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, trat said:

I Should say expanded N of Bo's.

 

They must be blending with their surface observations down south and realize the models are not initializing this system well at all.  That disturbance over AR and eastern OK and TX means quite the business, it is showing tremendous lift on the southeast flank.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It is an observation, looking at the H5 mesoanalysis page at H5, it shows the orientation of the northern stream trough being positive and the southern stream is east of the trough axis.  Again, rain is not happening here, maybe CHH and the National Seashore, and maybe ACK for a bit, but the latest NAM guidance shows all snow.

Ever think about hopping in a boat and relocating to the main land?

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...