weathafella Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The 1.5-2.0" line tickles Monomoy Island south of CHH. It also engulfs ACK! My vendor shows qpf of 0.75-1 on the cape and ACK tickling 1.25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The 1.5-2.0" line tickles Monomoy Island south of CHH. It also engulfs ACK! Tickle this: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: My vendor shows qpf of 0.75-1 on the cape and ACK tickling 1.25. Nope, mine does not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 QPF 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yes it is, but it closes off at H5 southeast of NYC. Time for it to trend more intense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 12k with 0.06" here and 3k with 0.03". Stein! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Here you go Jerry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Pretty far southeast with the banding signal...like really far SE. keeps it super close to low. :scared: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I'm shocked the RPM finally dropped the 12-16" for NH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Current 500mb charts on the SPC mesoanalysis page suggests that the southern stream system is out ahead of the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Seems like good model convergence today. HREFs are still juiced at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Here you go Jerry Thanks Will! I’d lock that now given everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: QPF 18z NAM Lol....I finally noticed SV changed their scale. My excitement went up a notch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Lol....I finally noticed SV changed their scale. My excitement went up a notch! the freaking NWS just issued the updated statement with the WSW for the Cape, they are now expecting mostly rain on the outer Cape with 1-3" of snow now expected. What is the crap with this? Why such a warm forecast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I think 4-6 here is a start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: IS this compared to forecast or just a observation not related to modeling Bc there has been something getting this to Tick se on modeling...nothing major just small moves..like maybe N stream acting as kicker Nam was the last zonked model to go SE....12z looked beautiful and Euro was decent at 12z so would have been nice to see nam not cut totals in half for 495 It's a close situation...i could see this come back another 25 miles NW or do a few more east tickles It is an observation, looking at the H5 mesoanalysis page at H5, it shows the orientation of the northern stream trough being positive and the southern stream is east of the trough axis. Again, rain is not happening here, maybe CHH and the National Seashore, and maybe ACK for a bit, but the latest NAM guidance shows all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucklesMV Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Unbelievable NWS just dropped the Winter Storm Warning to a advisory saying we will be lucky to get 6” I thought we where getting pummeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It is an observation, looking at the H5 mesoanalysis page at H5, it shows the orientation of the northern stream trough being positive and the southern stream is east of the trough axis. Again, rain is not happening here, maybe CHH and the National Seashore, and maybe ACK for a bit, but the latest NAM guidance shows all snow. Well, im routing for you James, but i wouldn't bet against the NWS. I would LOVE the Northern stream to stop slowing down and acting as a kicker. But given the trends last 12 hours i would guess messenger tickle east or two from here on out and this ends up a i-95 storm for S CT/ Central/ E Ri/ SE mass ( maybe including Bos ) .....but that is based on the assumption we see some East tickles The ceiling and accumulation goal posts for SNE ... on this looks higher than usual ..given how it's juicy and gets strong quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: 12k with 0.06" here and 3k with 0.03". Stein! I'm flipping tables here at the office making this forecast. Classic NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well, im routing for you James, but i wouldn't bet against the NWS. I would LOVE the Northern stream to stop slowing down and acting as a kicker. But given the trends last 12 hours i would guess messenger tickle east or two from here on out and this ends up a i-95 storm for S CT/ Central/ E Ri/ SE mass (Bos SE) .....but that is based on the assumption we see some East tickles The ceiling and accumulation goal posts for SNE ... on this looks higher than usual ..given how it's juicy and gets strong quickly... That is the only reason I see why the Outer Cape would rain is the storm is stronger and produces a more intense low level easterly jet, but the dynamics offset any boundary layer warming as the models show that at 925mb the temps are below -3C and 850mb below -7C. That is plenty cold for all snow even on the Cape. Also omega approaches 40 microbars in the Dendritic Growth Zone (-12 to -18C). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Sup gang? What’d I miss today? Looks like 6-8” on track here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 WSW are up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I Should say expanded N of Bo's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I am not buying the rain this time, especially with the dynamics this system brings and the track it take. Now if it was southwest of me, then sure, but this is south and southeast of me, all snow for me. ACK might mix, I am not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Sup gang? What’d I miss today? Looks like 6-8” on track here. Standard pint can is 6" tall. Just FYI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm flipping tables here at the office making this forecast. Classic NAM. Just go 1-2 for our area. If it is 3 nobody will notice. cept the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, trat said: I Should say expanded N of Bo's. They must be blending with their surface observations down south and realize the models are not initializing this system well at all. That disturbance over AR and eastern OK and TX means quite the business, it is showing tremendous lift on the southeast flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Just go 1-2 for our area. If it is 3 nobody will notice. cept the weenies It's my SE zones where I've had a harder time. I essentially issued a forecast I don't believe in to make the map work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: It is an observation, looking at the H5 mesoanalysis page at H5, it shows the orientation of the northern stream trough being positive and the southern stream is east of the trough axis. Again, rain is not happening here, maybe CHH and the National Seashore, and maybe ACK for a bit, but the latest NAM guidance shows all snow. Ever think about hopping in a boat and relocating to the main land? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Standard pint can is 6" tall. Just FYI. So your saying I’m going to need a couple. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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