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Quick Hitter Coastal Threat, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Right...that system from 9 years ago that we all remember. Damn dude, you’re sicko.

I have that kind of memory as well with snow storms, probably not to that extent but i can remember every single event we got from 2000-present, what the models were doing, the forecasts, its pretty sick.

12/29 was a great system. Over peformed, models beefed up every run leading up to the event. Half daytime storm half during the evening. Most of CT got 5-10 but the best was in the east. I got 8.5"

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I said this before, but anecdotally...I feel like this year has shown a lack of consistency with model solutions within 48 hrs or less. 

Thanks Covid.....It really has, led to some surprises though, the postive busts are always better than the rug getting pulled out though

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm kind of thinking that the lack of a strong high to the Northeast is going to keep f-gen tied closer to the mid level lows rather than a classic NW Dendy band.

The mesos have it into NJ and then SE NY and western SNE before moving it east. I still wonder if that stuff near far SE areas also has a bigger convective element. Almost like a thump. 

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It's been a text-book academia for two aspects:

-- compression flow uncertainty and more specifically ..how/why very small perturbations can cause disproportionately ( relative to cyclone climate/geometries..) larger vs small impacts at small latitudes more so than longitudes, in deterministic forecasting.

-- don't get involved in this pastime if your doing it seeking the 'drug'  LOL  ...

seriously though, the former rules out the latter as a very favorable gamble on getting inspiration/joy circuitry returns.

Be that as it may...obviously the 12z NAM shows a bump back NW with the Logan back to .8" liq equiv... where as ( hmm...) I wonder if anyone noticed the 06z had whittled the ordeal all the way back to < .5"?   Just taking a peek at 12z ( .. and not really wanting to  lol ), it appears that hefty QPF relo isn't very ubiquitously fair - or at least it appeared that way at a glance.  Like I said, I peeked at it...  I've been schooled rather brutally over the last 6 months of my life in the art of no-God dogma, so ... my personal wick is primed to see it as totally reasonable for 18" of snow at KTAN and .4" of snow at KORH ...no problem.  

Ha!  Between velocity saturation everywhere, and as Will mentioned ..other hemispheric scaled synoptic sore-butts not really favoring a closer track, these factors were both on the table the last three days of hopes and dreams frankly ... Even free of charge no less.  It's funny there's been zero takers on that gift - remarkable... 

Just bustin' nuts a bit... So even if this comes back a tick more here almost into now-cast even, the above limitations were still/are observably constraining.  I still see moderate impact as the ceiling. The above facets capping ... anomalies do happen relative to other anomalies, and exceed the ceiling would take that - i.e., not dependable.  Systemic translation at 'ludicrous' speed ( c/o Space Balls weather cinema incarnate ) may just be the one anomaly that cannot be defeated by two wrongs making a right no God atmosphere. 

I'll tell you ... 'always look on the bright side of life'  ... It's nice to have been dealt a solid 24 hour nor'easter last week, actually NOT then sent summarily through a 60 F balm ... but rather, delivered unto thee this learning or fantasy expose'  - parse out which of those to the individual consumer..  My intellect was at war with my love for dramatic weather events all week, but I think the former won for me. 

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26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s interesting in that a lot of modeling initially gets the banding up to our west like into SE NY and W MA and then it consolidates well SE. It’s like a race to see if we can rotate good banding into interior SNE before the best forcing shifts SE. 

Actually some similarity to the 12/29/12 system in that respect. 

I'd be down

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17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

 Decided to check CIPS for sh**s & giggles... and 12/29/12 storm just happens to be the #1 analog for the 12Z NAM run, thats funny

54333345Capture.thumb.JPG.9e112dbf639ddab9cfad8c89d3c78740.JPG

That Jan 2015 system that preceded the big dog wasn't bad out this way 6.5"... And we like to see the Jan and Feb 2011 mentions as well.   The March 2016 system was rather meh however, at least IMBY.  3".

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37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The mesos have it into NJ and then SE NY and western SNE before moving it east. I still wonder if that stuff near far SE areas also has a bigger convective element. Almost like a thump. 

Yeah, the NAM for instance really slides it east rather than pinwheeling it north like a more classic system. No real pivot. 

And parallel bands are notorious for the sharp northern gradient.

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