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Quick Hitter Coastal Threat, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m not down...I think we all at least see an advisory event which is nice on top of a big pack in the interior.

I’m just a little leery on the warning snowfall amounts outside of SE MA and RI because these things can easily tickle a little further southeast. 

We’re all of the sudden spoiled as we have two more events inside of 7 days after this one. But not every event is going to turn into 10” of snow and this one could end up as one of those that slips a little SE. We’ll see though. I think 12z will be telling. 

Oh ok.. just seemed like you were down on it. I have a feeling NAM bumps west 

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Just now, Hoth said:

that people are letting their moods be dictated by the fickleness of models like the NAM and GFS.

...it's been going on since people began to have  the ability to view the models online and the dawn of the weather forum(s).......but yes some people  do let the models control their mood(s) 

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It’s getting closer to significant winter storm despite the recent surface trends. Boston to SE MA should def hedge snowfall forecasts significantly higher. 
 

We’re seeing a -NAO develop with UL heights building into New Brunswick, and QC from the central Atlantic. This is having the effect of slowing the disturbance and increasing chances of an earlier northern stream phase.

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_atl_fh42_trend.gif

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48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah even here the SE ticks hurt. Since my “snowpack” is like elephant man, I’ll take even a few inches.  Look away Scooter, I’m hideous.

Sure...I’ll take a few inches too because my “snowpack” is like the dad that went out for cigarettes, but never came back! We bare. 

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55 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Even with the SE 6Z NAM with very paltry qpf outcome 600-800 avgd F-GEN would put some good banding into CT and E MA, NW of the best fronto. Those qpf amounts dont really match whats going on with mid levels on the NAM. We're waiting for the 12Z cycle to come out then going to put out a map but leaning toward a 4-8 or possibly 6-10 type event for most of CT. 

nam_ne.frontb39.thumb.png.29c4580324a191ec8a467d991fe3da0c.pngnam_ne.frontb37.thumb.png.8204b3693e1a28a861f58b01be894982.png

Thats a pretty epic band

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