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Quick Hitter Coastal Threat, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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Even with the SE 6Z NAM with very paltry qpf outcome 600-800 avgd F-GEN would put some good banding into CT and E MA, NW of the best fronto. Those qpf amounts dont really match whats going on with mid levels on the NAM. We're waiting for the 12Z cycle to come out then going to put out a map but leaning toward a 4-8 or possibly 6-10 type event for most of CT. 

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Even with the SE 6Z NAM with very paltry qpf outcome 600-800 avgd F-GEN would put some good banding into CT and E MA, NW of the best fronto. Those qpf amounts dont really match whats going on with mid levels on the NAM. We're waiting for the 12Z cycle to come out then going to put out a map but leaning toward a 4-8 or possibly 6-10 type event for most of CT. 

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Yeah I don’t understand some of the bridge jumpers. We know how these work. You toss QPF unless you’re MPM. They always have a deform/ mid level band NW of models. I think the entire state is 4-8” and Lollis to 10” under that band. I suspect the bridge jumpers (surprised at who some of them are) will be quite pleased with 12z

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm still leery of these things when convection gets going and then you get that last minute move sometimes. I dunno....you could come up with reasonable arguments on both sides.

I feel like there are more arguments for a SE tick...really fast flow, no phase, big NAO block, etc. That’s definitely the worry. 

That said, hopefully this southern stream vort beefs up a little in the final 24h and that could overcome some of those other issues. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I feel like there are more arguments for a SE tick...really fast flow, no phase, big NAO block, etc. That’s definitely the worry. 

That said, hopefully this southern stream vort beefs up a little in the final 24h and that could overcome some of those other issues. 

Yeah I know. Then there is that which might be what models are seeing. 

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I feel like there are more arguments for a SE tick...really fast flow, no phase, big NAO block, etc. That’s definitely the worry. 

That said, hopefully this southern stream vort beefs up a little in the final 24h and that could overcome some of those other issues. 

Hate to see you so down on a snow event. Ray have your phone?

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Hate to see you so down on a snow event. Ray have your phone?

I’m not down...I think we all at least see an advisory event which is nice on top of a big pack in the interior.

I’m just a little leery on the warning snowfall amounts outside of SE MA and RI because these things can easily tickle a little further southeast. 

We’re all of the sudden spoiled as we have two more events inside of 7 days after this one. But not every event is going to turn into 10” of snow and this one could end up as one of those that slips a little SE. We’ll see though. I think 12z will be telling. 

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