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Quick Hitter Coastal Threat, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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Just now, wxsniss said:

3k 997 to 981 mb = 16 mb in 12 hrs

   vs.

NAM 1003 to 993 mb = 10 mb in 12 hrs

Is there a synoptic reason for the explosive deepening on 3k NAM? I can't find upper air for 3k NAM, but wondering if better upper air divergence?

10 mb in 12 hrs is no slouch, either.

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Do we buy the Hi-res weenie runs....

I've been thinking this ends up a touch more progressive and limits warning snows .. to the 1-95 corridor with advisory snows for MHT- KFIT- BDL but i would like to hear from folks who are in the know

checking in the last couple days I saw weenies lose the storm the other nite then swing back full weenie to 10-12 amounts NW of 95..mmmm sell that unless Euro comes NW at our latitude....

WPC has 8" amounts at maybe 10-20 %

any  25-40 mile ticks will be a pretty big deal on accums

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6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

3k NAM 997 to 981 mb = 16 mb in 12 hrs

   vs.

12k NAM 1003 to 993 mb = 10 mb in 12 hrs

Is there a synoptic reason for the explosive deepening on 3k NAM? I can't find upper air for 3k NAM, but wondering if better upper air divergence?

Check pivotal.  They have some upper air data.

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The 3 KM collocates extreme upper level divergence along with an intense jet streak over the Maritimes of Canada right as the storm takes its explosive deepening route.  The explosive deepening occurs at the same time the shortwave goes negative tilted, and there is a chance our surface low gets a tad stronger in future runs throughout Saturday.  Convection is likely a contributor.  As the low reaches the SC and NC coasts it begins to interact with the baroclinic natural boundary with the Gulf Stream and continental polar air mass over the interior of Mid-Atlantic States.  This boundary spells the deep maritime instability and warmth, with the polar air mass over to the northwest of the boundary.  This is when the Gulf Stream can play tricks on the HIRES models and Global Models with a natural warm front taking place as the surface low emerges off the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Honestly a 978mb at the benchmark is still plausible.

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So???  What’s your call?  Is this something special?  Or just a glitch? 

I would tend to think there is going to be one hellacious band with this. Like with last weeks storm and the one in December, there is going to be a pretty impressive baroclinic zone...perhaps even more impressive. Could be looking at +9C to +12C air in the warm sector with -5 to -6C at 850 over us. 50-60 knots of inflow into the CCB. I think sometimes the degree of banding in these types of setups is "undervalued" from the initial forecasting practices. 

The million dollar question is how far northwest does this banding get but there seems to be a pretty good signal for us here in CT. If the whole organization was several hours earlier (especially with the closing of the 700 low) I would think we could see another foot-plus state wide. 

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