Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Another Hi-RES model showing a good hit, the HRRR 18z out to 48 hours, 00z loading soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Off hour Euro . You know the drill. It’s been notoriously low since it’s inception. 18z cuts back and then 00z goes buck it actually beefed up for us, fully expect widespread warning snows for 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Some signs of maybe a convection element too. IOW I wonder those closer to mixing line just rip insane rates even though it’s borderline. The soundings do show steep lapse rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: it actually beefed up for us, fully expect widespread warning snows for 00z. Oh yeah I saw it increased CT, but it’s infuriating at how slow it moves . It is playing catch-up as usual close in .. to the hi res stuff. But it had no problem going 600 miles OTS on Wednesday morning after showing a blizzard the prior 5 runs. That will be forgotten in grading 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Granted it's the RAP, but it's pretty meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh yeah I saw it increased CT, but it’s infuriating at how slow it moves . It is playing catch-up as usual close in .. to the hi res stuff. But it had no problem going 600 miles OTS on Wednesday morning after showing a blizzard the prior 5 runs. That will be forgotten in grading I know I agree. It only gets a nod for being the first to show it early in the week before it completely lost it. It's gone northwest now 7 of 8 runs besides the 18z blip yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh yeah I saw it increased CT, but it’s infuriating at how slow it moves . It is playing catch-up as usual close in .. to the hi res stuff. But it had no problem going 600 miles OTS on Wednesday morning after showing a blizzard the prior 5 runs. That will be forgotten in grading That’s how it should be. Knee jerk models just don’t do anything for confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: I know I agree. It only gets a nod for being the first to show it early in the week before it completely lost it. It's gone northwest now 7 of 8 runs besides the 18z blip yesterday. The NW clustering last 2 days was tell tale sign. Tauntonflizz said not to use ensembles, but we knew we had to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: That’s how it should be. Knee jerk models just don’t do anything for confidence. So what about when it went from 12-24 at 12 z Tuesday to 600 miles OTS at 00z Wednesday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So what about when it went from 12-24 at 12 z Tuesday to 600 miles OTS at 00z Wednesday night? It’s too bad it did that. But I find within 72 hours it does incremental shifts. I’d rather that vs models jumping all over. Plus we knew EPS was NW all along so take euro op with caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s too bad it did that. But I find within 72 hours it does incremental shifts. I’d rather that vs models jumping all over. Plus we knew EPS was NW all along so take euro op with caution. Too many Mets still live and die by the Euro and it’s a shame. At any rate.. let’s rip everyone a good storm on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 It's a shame the developing jet streak doesn't really get going sooner. It starts to round the base of shortwave south of our region. If that happened as it was exiting the Ohio Valley this would probably a region wide 12-18'' type deal. Would possibly help with pushing that QPF farther northwest...but I still think that ultimately happens. Even some nice MAUL's on some of the soundings. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 First call 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah no kidding. Even H7 lift was strong, so I'm sort of scratching my head. Anyways, not really worried. Yeah I think it would actually hit eastern areas harder than the qpf showed. H5 looked a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think it would actually hit eastern areas harder than the qpf showed. H5 looked a little better. It looks like there is a ton of convection in the warm sector. I wonder if it is robbing some of that moisture. Or it could just be a product of the just a bit too late of development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Same exact output in 18z EPS, still most members NW of the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think it would actually hit eastern areas harder than the qpf showed. H5 looked a little better. Rates like last time? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8umSIiGZic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Same exact output in 18z EPS, still most members NW of the mean. Yes. Great look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yes. Great look: I'm pretty freaking stoked for this. Having Ryan and Wiz both bullish as well is not typical, and adds confidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: I'm pretty freaking stoked for this. Having Ryan and Wiz both bullish as well is not typical, and adds confidence. A snowstorm on top of good pack, is rare here and will be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: A snowstorm on top of good pack, is rare here and will be fun. Absolutely. Might have to go back to Jan '11 to find two events of this magnitude in such close temporal proximity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 31 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: First call Nice map! I think this is pretty close to reality 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, Hoth said: Absolutely. Might have to go back to Jan '11 to find two events of this magnitude in such close temporal proximity. Yup. Ray agrees. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup. Ray agrees. Delayed but not denied! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 45 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: First call grats, you guys deserve it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 heh...SREFs are still zonked. Too bad they suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: heh...SREFs are still zonked. Too bad they suck. Looking is the first step of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 18 minutes ago, weathafella said: Nice map! I think this is pretty close to reality Move all zones 25-50 NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 24 minutes ago, Hoth said: Absolutely. Might have to go back to Jan '11 to find two events of this magnitude in such close temporal proximity. Wait until 3 and 4 hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottieBird Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I knew this storm had potential when the Pope stepped out on his balcony and greeted the unwashed masses. Just be careful. If he's calling for a Taunton jack it'll probably occur in Montreal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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