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Quick Hitter Coastal Threat, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

it actually beefed up for us, fully expect widespread warning snows for 00z. 

Oh yeah I saw it increased CT, but it’s infuriating at how slow it moves . It is playing catch-up as usual close in .. to the hi res stuff. But it had no problem going 600 miles OTS on Wednesday morning after showing a blizzard the prior 5 runs. That will be forgotten in grading 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh yeah I saw it increased CT, but it’s infuriating at how slow it moves . It is playing catch-up as usual close in .. to the hi res stuff. But it had no problem going 600 miles OTS on Wednesday morning after showing a blizzard the prior 5 runs. That will be forgotten in grading 

I know I agree. It only gets a nod for being the first to show it early in the week before it completely lost it. It's gone northwest now 7 of 8 runs besides the 18z blip yesterday. 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh yeah I saw it increased CT, but it’s infuriating at how slow it moves . It is playing catch-up as usual close in .. to the hi res stuff. But it had no problem going 600 miles OTS on Wednesday morning after showing a blizzard the prior 5 runs. That will be forgotten in grading 

That’s how it should be. Knee jerk models just don’t do anything for confidence. 

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Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I know I agree. It only gets a nod for being the first to show it early in the week before it completely lost it. It's gone northwest now 7 of 8 runs besides the 18z blip yesterday. 

The NW clustering last 2 days was tell tale sign. Tauntonflizz said not to use ensembles, but we knew we had to

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So what about when it went from 12-24 at 12 z Tuesday to 600 miles OTS at 00z Wednesday night?

It’s too bad it did that. But I find within 72 hours it does incremental shifts. I’d rather that vs models jumping all over. Plus we knew EPS was NW all along so take euro op with caution.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s too bad it did that. But I find within 72 hours it does incremental shifts. I’d rather that vs models jumping all over. Plus we knew EPS was NW all along so take euro op with caution.

Too many Mets still live and die by the Euro and it’s a shame. At any rate.. let’s rip everyone a good storm on Sunday

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It's a shame the developing jet streak doesn't really get going sooner. It starts to round the base of shortwave south of our region. If that happened as it was exiting the Ohio Valley this would probably a region wide 12-18'' type deal. Would possibly help with pushing that QPF farther northwest...but I still think that ultimately happens. Even some nice MAUL's on some of the soundings.

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50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah no kidding. Even H7 lift was strong, so I'm sort of scratching my head. Anyways, not really worried. 

Yeah I think it would actually hit eastern areas harder than the qpf showed. H5 looked a little better. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think it would actually hit eastern areas harder than the qpf showed. H5 looked a little better. 

It looks like there is a ton of convection in the warm sector. I wonder if it is robbing some of that moisture. Or it could just be a product of the just a bit too late of development

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