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Quick Hitter Coastal Threat, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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19 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

This looks like one of these storms that is going to keep ticking NW. I'm pretty enthused here. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the hires models win with the amped up southern stream. 

 

18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'll walk out of my last shift on Sunday, headed home for the Super Bowl, with warnings flying left and right and snow amounts doubled.

See model verification sensitivity indicates more amped solutions more viable. EOF 1 is like 87% for deeper closer 

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The storm is already close enough for climate inference/walloping .. In fact, the blend of the ICON/Euro/RGEM/NAM and GFS is between Cape C and BM goal post - my god...

But this flat flow is limiting the polarward extend of the initial IB/WAA bloof of snow there... The whole scaffold of the system is scrunching into the stream line corrdinate and less perpendicular ...   Typically a storm center moves like that and the 80th %tile snow max arc gets to almost SPF-FIT-ASH ~ ...but this wants to 45th and keeps the beef unusually far SE..

Anyway, it's why I only think 4-6 with lollypop 8s S probably ends up the final ?  not a certainty, but we need to get this thing to extend farther perpendicular to the track/open up a bit more.

Also, just an observation of the 3KM NAM ( not a statement as to it's accuracy ...).. That model appears to have a whopper front side WAA/ isentropic lift bomb ...that may be in the process of bend back in the 600 -500 mb as it is leaving, and we see that arc there a bit NW of other guidance.  Not sure .. I don't typically ever look at those lower resolution runs - and only have a handful of scenarios in which I'll consider the 32KM version -

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

See model sensitivity indicates more amped solutions more viable. EOF 1 is like 87% for deeper closer 

I saw the 00z runs had EOF1 that high. I was almost wondering if that pointed more towards a binary situation with two major camps. i.e. Either hits or scrapes. 

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I definitely think we’ll continue seeing ticks northwest. In fact, I was considering going 8-12” statewide. This is going to be yet another super impressive band. Perfect or nearly perfect H85 and H7 low tracks for heavy snow to move over CT. The 800-600 fronto from the FSU banding site was nuts. 
 

60+ knots inflow too feeding moisture into the storm. Probably see QPF continue to bump a bit too 

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The storm is already close enough for climate inference/walloping .. In fact, the blend of the ICON/Euro/RGEM/NAM and GFS is between Cape C and BM goal post - my god...

But this flat flow is limiting the polarward extend of the initial IB/WAA bloof of snow there... The whole scaffold of the system is scrunching into the stream line corrdinate and less perpendicular ...   Typically a storm center moves like that and the 80th %tile snow max arc gets to almost SPF-FIT-ASH ~ ...but this wants to 45th and keeps the beef unusually far SE..

Anyway, it's why I only think 4-6 with lollypop 8s S probably ends up the final ?  not a certainty, but we need to get this thing to extend farther perpendicular to the track/open up a bit more.

Also, just an observation of the 3KM NAM ( not a statement as to it's accuracy ...).. That model appears to have a whopper front side WAA/ isentropic lift bomb ...that may be in the process of bend back in the 600 -500 mb as it is leaving, and we see that arc there a bit NW of other guidance.  Not sure .. I don't typically ever look at those lower resolution runs - and only have a handful of scenarios in which I'll consider the 32KM version -

Double those 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

What was that system in later January 2011?  I seem to remember an over-performer in about that same axis... quick hitting but still left like 8-15” in a very short period of time.

1/27/11...different type of system though. That was the one where Ginxy to Kevin was getting 4” per hour for a couple hours straight and Kevin slept through it. 

 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What was that system in later January 2011?  I seem to remember an over-performer in about that same axis... quick hitting but still left like 8-15” in a very short period of time.  Jackpot like ECT to SE MA?

That I think was Jan 26 which shut 84 in Tolland with trucks knifed. Had 16” in 12 hours overnight. It was the storm they accused me of sleeping thru that I was awake for. My neighbor went into labor and got stuck in her driveway . So they had a town plow , plow her driveway and a route down 74 to get her to the highway on the ambulance 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1/27/11...different type of system though. That was the one where Ginxy to Kevin was getting 4” per hour for a couple hours straight and Kevin slept through it. 

 

Yeah that’s the one.  What was different, just curious?  I do remember like an obscene band just pummeling areas in CT and ENE for a short duration wallop.  It was that system, last few days in January and the third biggie.  I thought that was a quick hitting southern stream?  Or was it a Miller B?

I pictured that when seeing the 18z 3km NAM, lol.  When 1-hr QPF is like 0.25-50” and it’s snowing 4”/hr.

C2515E94-9D6F-4C4F-92CE-49B90227B7E4.thumb.png.7d7982cf9e1f6d432ccdbfa42466174a.png

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What was that system in later January 2011?  I seem to remember an over-performer in about that same axis... quick hitting but still left like 8-15” in a very short period of time.  Jackpot like ECT to SE MA?

think that was 1/21/11 storm, iirc, got 21" in Waterbury on that one, but it may have well been the one before that... was one awesome month, good snow every few days it seemed, with a 12" norlun to boot...was also in Waterbury at the time

edit:1/27/11

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4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The probabilistic snow forecasts are just not good. This does not seem to be a legit 90th percentile forecast for SNE. 

 

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

Yeah you’d basically have to double that for 90th percentile imho. Maybe not quite double it further east but close. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you’d basically have to double that for 90th percentile imho. Maybe not quite double it further east but close. 

I think the prob snow forecasts really struggle at this range when you've got a large gulf between the global models and mesoscale models. They're not really fine tuned for that. As we get closer at the higher res ensembles come into view we're in better shape. 

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