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Quick Hitter Coastal Threat, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Soon we'll be offering Brian congratulations. 

Definitely think the sensitivity (also) here is related to the orientation of the N/ stream SPV pearling going on N of the Lakes to the western/lower Maritime.  Ubiquitous ...even subtle backing off on the suppressive nature in how that is integrating everywhere ( really ..) ... immediately evinces the incredible baroclinic potency - it's like under constant pressure, and as that backs off.. metaphor slowly unscrewing a cap and we hiss our way into a flat wave NJ Model low type in step.. 

The ICON - obviously you know all this gunk ... - was back well off that SPV aspect a few cycles ago and had a pretty impressive short duration albeit major impact, and another 3 degs of lat/lon relaxation may bring those robuster solutions back to the discussion, another 6 and we open wave-style fast moving bomb.  

It's really a blessed time for multi subforum interests ... to be relayed into another focus in such short order to the last.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Since Kevin is confused most of the time.

Here are the 700mb temps and VV to point out what I am saying. 

Thermal gradient is about 20mi offshore co-aligned with the VV.

1407739688_Screenshot2021-02-04131800.thumb.png.664ea6208161fd56e98785fdbff19a3b.png

229202266_Screenshot2021-02-04131844.thumb.png.1b505c05e821a03b3ced7012e74d8491.png

Yeah where you see those isotherms packed, you'd prob get a weenie band displaced NW of that...esp in a very tilted system like this one. The key is getting it close enough so the realy good band gets over land. It might get the Cape on this run (even though it doesn't directly show it on QPF)

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

They should do a median-much better representative especially with an n of low numbers like gefs. It even 51 can have one member skew the mea too much.

wow, just trying to think how I would do that and the math gets very complicated on the global scale.

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19 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

image.png.231368b1dc0c69184983911514b72161.png

image.png.bc9c9e24bd83151eeb11e26594591017.png

Oh right - duh ... heh - sorry

Forgot about this product. 

Yeah, so...again, like the GEFs - the spread appears to be over the NW arc.  Man, that'd be a hoot: that 975 mb near Cape Ann -

The thing is we actually want to watch the SB ...not just having to know the SB in airing while we're in the dark cuz a dystopian cryo bomb's going off in the area.

  • Haha 1
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