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Quick Hitter Coastal Threat, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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Looks like 4-6 here (Sunday), if I'm reading things right. Hope James can cash in a bit down on the Cape My 90 yo father in law would kill me, if he heard that lol. He lives in Dennis.

Does this thing have potential for a widespread warning (even at low level) outside of 495 and N of the pike?

 

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve got 4-6” along the 84 corridor for now with 6-8” in sect to sema.

Yup, conservative is the best approach with a system that keeps moving around like this. Once the crazy shifts stop, something more accurate can be forecasted. I am thinking low end here is 2 inches and the high end would be 10"....so 50 hours out 2-10 inches would be the forecast, lol

 

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21 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Looks like most of the TV mets are going conservative at noon.  Bump 'em up for the 5pm reports if 18z comes in strong?

Midday newscasts are tough to make wholesale changes unless it's a real short term thing. No point in jumping on things before the full suite of 12z guidance and ensembles is in. 

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12-18" seems possible at this moment in time for the Cape and Islands, I am not 100 percent confident yet, the 12z EURO will aide in confidence one way or the other.  12z models came in zonked compared to the 00z pedestrian garbage.  6-12" from the Canal to the I-95 corridor and then 3-6" to the CT River and almost nothing west of there.

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Midday newscasts are tough to make wholesale changes unless it's a real short term thing. No point in jumping on things before the full suite of 12z guidance and ensembles is in. 

Yeah I'd never want to make changes just based on the GFS/NAM/Canadian suites....I'd want to see Ukie and of course most importantly the Euro before making a big change that will potentially affect many people's plans.

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