TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 12-18” in ema as conservative? Start high, adjust higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 12-18” in ema as conservative? Only if the start, middle, and end are rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 12-18” in ema as conservative? He’s playing all the folks lol.. going opposite end extreme like Dec 17.. we see it, but they don’t. Pope knows how to work the crowds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 This storm is sneaking up on us almost as fast as January 2000 in the mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 GGEM in line with the other 12z guidance for nice deformation band through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 People have different memories than me of 2/7/2003. I remember it was a Friday and modeled cape scraper. BOX had 1-3 for me and insisted on that until someone decided to look out the window. My wife called me and told me the roads were awful and it was snowing 2/hour fluff. Ended before I left work and I walked home in a foot. One of the best over performers ever! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Not much change on the GEFS. Just tightened up the mean leaving only a couple western stragglers. Mean QPF trimmed back on western side as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He’s playing all the folks lol.. going opposite end extreme like Dec 17.. we see it, but they don’t. Pope knows how to work the crowds Noyes putting up a 1-3 for our zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Fozz said: This storm is sneaking up on us almost as fast as January 2000 in the mid-Atlantic. That was nowcast. At least this had a signal at d6 and came to reasonably consensus at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: That was nowcast. At least this had a signal at d6 and came to reasonably consensus at 48 hours. Todd Gross had 3-5. I think NGM was most bullish. I came home from Lowell to 16" of fluff. Looked like a Jeep commercial as I went tearing down my driveway and fluff flying everywhere. Best combo of baseball flakes of fluff and no wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: That was nowcast. At least this had a signal at d6 and came to reasonably consensus at 48 hours. Yeah the signal has been there for some time, but until the last few runs it looked like nothing eventful, and now suddenly a foot of snow is a possibility. I also do recall early Feb 2003. A nice 4-8" storm for most of the northeast cities, but I remember being shocked when the Weather Channel reported the New England totals, which seemed to happen so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Robust muthufukkas! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Todd Gross had 3-5. I think NGM was most bullish. I came home from Lowell to 16" of fluff. Looked like a Jeep commercial as I went tearing down my driveway and fluff flying everywhere. Best combo of baseball flakes of fluff and no wind. I think BOX had upgraded to advisory late in the game in the overnight package for the pike region. I remember the advisory being out (the old snow advisory), but nobody saw the obscene mesoband coming. Obviously back in those days, the model guidance was a little harder to parse for that kind of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Shocked the precip shield is so narrow with the storm so close to the coast on the GEM. Have to think the NAM is a little more accurate WRT western extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 It was Also the only time I had the “Shovel across the drive way. Turnaround. Already covered“ experience. Which makes sense being my only donated 4” per hour experience. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Ukie crush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 16 minutes ago, Fozz said: This storm is sneaking up on us almost as fast as January 2000 in the mid-Atlantic. not even close. that was like hours. this is 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 One things also in the 2/7/03 event was that the QPF wasn't a huge bust, I think BOS had under a half inch of QPF and even blue hill wasn't much more than that. It was that there was an absolute perfect cross-hair sig in that with a deep SGZ so it was basically 20 or 25 to 1 blower powder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Shocked the precip shield is so narrow with the storm so close to the coast on the GEM. Have to think the NAM is a little more accurate WRT western extent. I feel like that's a fairly common model bias. I don't know about the Canucks, but the GFS seems to do that regularly. I agree with your thinking vis-a-vis the Nam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: One things also in the 2/7/03 event was that the QPF wasn't a huge bust, I think BOS had under a half inch of QPF and even blue hill wasn't much more than that. It was that there was an absolute perfect cross-hair sig in that with a deep SGZ so it was basically 20 or 25 to 1 blower powder. Hingham, 16.3" on 0.70" QPF. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH is prob better than CON by a couple ticks, but I think where dendrite is does better than ORH by a few ticks and his area up there is also better for retention. That is that start of big time CAD land. ORH is a good spot for retention overall but not as good as getting up north of CON. ORH is sort of where the CAD starts in earnest in a lot of messier events, but it hits a new tier when you get north of CON and then it goes into nuclear bunker mode once into W ME. If you like monster 18"+ synoptic storms, then ORH is one of the best spots due to the elevation and proximity to the ocean. There is really no terrain that screws with it during ocean storms....easterly flow or northerly or northeasterly flow are all going to work there. I've actually noticed - seein' as y'allz talkin' 'bout it - that Ayer is a relative nadir. My Town Hall elevation is 295' ( give or take ...) above sea level. I was amazed when I saw that this far inland. But the Nashoba Valley really means valley I guess. Anyway, as one drives out of town west, south or east down rt 2, they can't really get more than a 2-5 mi in any direction and the elevation increases. South is the most - Prospect Hill is a part of a ridge-line, more than less the geomorphology 'echo' of the other side of this, the head of the N. V. region ... Worcester Hills as it were over yonder. To which Mt Wachusetts is a part ..etc.. etc.. To the right of those stunning clear day vistas the Manadnock seem like you must be able to go, "Hey hey hey" and someone should be able to report back. Also, an easy spy of Mt Greylock in far NW Mass... But, the Valley beneath .. in which sets Fort Devans and Ayer .. I believe suffers slightly because due N is of course gaining elevation albeit slower, but ends up around Keene at 1200 foot and gaining ... So, we're down-sloping from every direction. We have a cold drain problem too - man...can't tell you how many times I've left my pad, backin' outta the drive way at 6:50 am ( pre Pandouchic ) and it'd 21 F steering wheel knuckle aching cold, and by the time I hit 117 and 190 S interchange, some 150 feet higher ( ~) it's 33...it can be that dramatic in radiator nights. But this effects - I wonder - snow totaling. We are "supposed" to be in snow zone, being sort of climo on the west side of CF phenomnenon, and also being along the pipe axis of the typical "tuck" jet... Yet, I am pretty routinely 4-6" lower than surrounding during bigger events. Sometimes it's subtler than that too - Then again, Dec 23 1997 ...this town was opposite ...but of course that was a hugely unique scenario - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ukie crush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: The snowfall distro is extremely tight considering track and low position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah in this event you sort of want to be right on the nose of that 700mb low that is pointing toward S RI there....maybe just a hair north of it. There's where you're gonna find some intense banding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah in this event you sort of want to be right on the nose of that 700mb low that is pointing toward S RI there....maybe just a hair north of it. There's where you're gonna find some intense banding. Wheeee we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, EastonSN+ said: The snowfall distro is extremely tight considering track and low position. Look at the wind flags on that map...you'll see they are SE at 50-60 knots over LI sound but by the time you get into NW CT, they are southwest at 40 knots. There will be a pretty good cutoff in the heavier stuff with that type of look. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 36 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Noyes putting up a 1-3 for our zone. I would guess closer to 5-8” for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I’ll be making a map tonight.... early guess 6-10” south of Boston 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 38 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Noyes putting up a 1-3 for our zone. Lol. We don’t care. He’ll be taking em up ... a lot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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