JC-CT Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Can't remember the last time I've seen a 12km vs 3km difference that big. I'm sure it's happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6z EPS was a tick west of 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Things look pretty good here. Pretty damn close across multiple models' that we may get deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Think we’re close to regional 3-6/4-8” type event The region in general should invest in Tuesday, though some may reap a reward on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 It wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor, and it ain't over now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z EPS was a tick west of 00z. Still lots of spread NW of the mean. Some really amped members in there that would dump 6-12 region wide, a bunch of advisory level solutions and lots of whiffs too... 1/3/6" PROBS. Bumped up a bit from 00Z. Bump up across SNE on the qpf as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I like where I sit, for once. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3-6 here would be nice hopefully we can trend it closer and the se folk can cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Sref are insanely amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Congrats Jimmy......guy deserves it. I will gladly pass on this one and await my 6-10" from Tuesday PM SWFE that the Euro is advertising. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Hopefully we can sneak into the good snows here. We're east enough, but may be too far north this time? We get Cape climo for good coastals, but we miss out on Cape scrapers. Give me 2-4 and I'll delay the next melt. HA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 28 minutes ago, Hoth said: It wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor, and it ain't over now. Am I missing something?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Sref are insanely amped That's my prayer. Haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 SREFs look like the RPM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Are the Srefs useful at all though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Are the Srefs useful at all though? Not really....'nor is the RPM at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 59 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: It did hit 41° here, felt great and makes sledding with the kids more enjoyable when you are not frozen... That’s why it felt warm in the car yesterday.. cuz it was a mild day. . And to be honest...anytime you have strong bright sunshine beating into a closed car..it’ll make it warmer. Obviously more so as we head towards spring, but my truck felt warm in late December if the sun was beating in/on it directly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are the Srefs useful at all though? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No So the next logical question one would ask oneself is why look at them or post them? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Looks to me like the 12z NAM is coming back north this run through 24 hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Only things I'll add re Sunday at this time ... -- this pattern incoming/setting up post this swath of fast moving snow/rain showers .. is highly sensitive to minor perturbations and nuanced flow mechanics, from S of Alaska to S of NS ... right along which this event being tracked is railed ... Should bear that in mind, and that was true three .. two days ago and now, in the virtual setting of the models trying to paint whatever happens for that synoptic movie. I have noticed the track of the 500 mb wave space and the attending sfc responses/subsequent tracks .. in all guidance, have/has been en masse driven [apparently] more so by the entire integration of the flow between Florida and Jame Bay making giga motion-wiggles cycle-to-cycle, NW SE ...back NW. That's why whatever consensus there has been - albeit leaving something to be desired and having spread - showed cross guidance shifting together. It's kind of interesting. The wave space is high confidence; the delicate track handling is not. -- the wave space in question is just as of 12z ( now ..), been relaying off the Pacific and is passing over roughly the coastal Oregon .. It may not mean much to this, but could offer a some wild card, should the 12z "wiggle" bump things back NW, and then added to that ...this has more in situ stream mechanics.. This could jump back into some earlier illustrations for fan glory over a couple of short-order cycles. -- I saw the GEFs and GEPs still carry along substantial spread ...all of which is contained around their NW arcs of the cyclone. ..though perhaps slightly less in the GEFs. Some of those members in that stressed track guidance are < 990 MB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So the next logical question one would ask oneself is why look at them or post them? Because if they are suppressed, then you know you are porked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 27 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Am I missing something?? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Because if they are suppressed, then you know you are porked. Yeah they are almost the inverse-NOGAPS rule from years ago....you'd look at the NOGAPS back then and if it was pretty far NW, you knew that was kind of a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NAM coming back I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM coming back I think. Little bit of phasing with northern stream at 33h right now...don't think they'll stay connected, but that helps pump heights up downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Were on to Tuesday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z NAM is definitely more amped from the previous two runs. A different trend in the other direction. This might be due to sampling better, but I will wait until the 00z runs tonight to see if the new data changes anything. Right now, it would be nice to trend towards a benchmark track below 990mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The NAM seems slower overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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