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Quick Hitter Coastal Threat, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z EPS was a tick west of 00z.

Still lots of spread NW of the mean. Some really amped members in there that would dump 6-12 region wide, a bunch of advisory level solutions and lots of whiffs too...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-2720800.thumb.png.123f402d6def1abbc17d6dbe34d7f8bb.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-2742400.thumb.png.5a547b8866440c6274d990f8ccb4e3b4.png

1/3/6" PROBS. Bumped up a bit from 00Z.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-snow_24hr_ge_1-2764000.thumb.png.8633f2b5e49f50a79044601e96175dc9.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-snow_24hr_ge_3-2764000.thumb.png.a6e40fa74c9fa797227ecdcf379436ba.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-snow_24hr_ge_6-2764000.thumb.png.9ebf139cb6c80820417f0aee3edd0b46.png

Bump up across SNE on the qpf as well.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-total_precip_inch-2764000.thumb.png.82da6e0feb9ac08482f3f96994b8ced6.png

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59 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

It did hit 41° here, felt great and makes sledding with the kids more enjoyable when you are not frozen...

That’s why it felt warm in the car yesterday.. cuz it was a mild day. 
 

. And to be honest...anytime you have strong bright sunshine beating into a closed car..it’ll make it warmer. Obviously more so as we head towards spring, but my truck felt warm in late December if the sun was beating in/on it directly. 

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Only things I'll add re Sunday at this time ...

-- this pattern incoming/setting up post this swath of fast moving snow/rain showers .. is highly sensitive to minor perturbations and nuanced flow mechanics, from S of Alaska to S of NS ... right along which this event being tracked is railed   ... Should bear that in mind, and that was true three .. two days ago and now, in the virtual setting of the models trying to paint whatever happens for that synoptic movie.  I have noticed the track of the 500 mb wave space and the attending sfc responses/subsequent tracks .. in all guidance, have/has been en masse driven [apparently] more so by the entire integration of the flow between Florida and Jame Bay making giga motion-wiggles cycle-to-cycle, NW SE ...back NW.   That's why whatever consensus there has been - albeit leaving something to be desired and having spread - showed cross guidance shifting together.  It's kind of interesting.  The wave space is high confidence; the delicate track handling is not.

-- the wave space in question is just as of 12z ( now ..), been relaying off the Pacific and is passing over roughly the coastal Oregon .. It may not mean much to this, but could offer a some wild card, should the 12z "wiggle" bump things back NW, and then added to that ...this has more in situ stream mechanics.. This could jump back into some earlier illustrations for fan glory over a couple of short-order cycles.

-- I saw the GEFs and GEPs still carry along substantial spread ...all of which is contained around their NW arcs of the cyclone. ..though perhaps slightly less in the GEFs.  Some of those members in that stressed track guidance are < 990 MB

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Because if they are suppressed, then you know you are porked.

Yeah they are almost the inverse-NOGAPS rule from years ago....you'd look at the NOGAPS back then and if it was pretty far NW, you knew that was kind of a red flag.

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