The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Right...that system from 9 years ago that we all remember. Damn dude, you’re sicko. I have that kind of memory as well with snow storms, probably not to that extent but i can remember every single event we got from 2000-present, what the models were doing, the forecasts, its pretty sick. 12/29 was a great system. Over peformed, models beefed up every run leading up to the event. Half daytime storm half during the evening. Most of CT got 5-10 but the best was in the east. I got 8.5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I said this before, but anecdotally...I feel like this year has shown a lack of consistency with model solutions within 48 hrs or less. Thanks Covid.....It really has, led to some surprises though, the postive busts are always better than the rug getting pulled out though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm kind of thinking that the lack of a strong high to the Northeast is going to keep f-gen tied closer to the mid level lows rather than a classic NW Dendy band. The mesos have it into NJ and then SE NY and western SNE before moving it east. I still wonder if that stuff near far SE areas also has a bigger convective element. Almost like a thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Interesting how each cycle one model goes one way and one another way. 6Z RGEM looks like the 12Z NAM and vise versa. Frustrating.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 It's been a text-book academia for two aspects: -- compression flow uncertainty and more specifically ..how/why very small perturbations can cause disproportionately ( relative to cyclone climate/geometries..) larger vs small impacts at small latitudes more so than longitudes, in deterministic forecasting. -- don't get involved in this pastime if your doing it seeking the 'drug' LOL ... seriously though, the former rules out the latter as a very favorable gamble on getting inspiration/joy circuitry returns. Be that as it may...obviously the 12z NAM shows a bump back NW with the Logan back to .8" liq equiv... where as ( hmm...) I wonder if anyone noticed the 06z had whittled the ordeal all the way back to < .5"? Just taking a peek at 12z ( .. and not really wanting to lol ), it appears that hefty QPF relo isn't very ubiquitously fair - or at least it appeared that way at a glance. Like I said, I peeked at it... I've been schooled rather brutally over the last 6 months of my life in the art of no-God dogma, so ... my personal wick is primed to see it as totally reasonable for 18" of snow at KTAN and .4" of snow at KORH ...no problem. Ha! Between velocity saturation everywhere, and as Will mentioned ..other hemispheric scaled synoptic sore-butts not really favoring a closer track, these factors were both on the table the last three days of hopes and dreams frankly ... Even free of charge no less. It's funny there's been zero takers on that gift - remarkable... Just bustin' nuts a bit... So even if this comes back a tick more here almost into now-cast even, the above limitations were still/are observably constraining. I still see moderate impact as the ceiling. The above facets capping ... anomalies do happen relative to other anomalies, and exceed the ceiling would take that - i.e., not dependable. Systemic translation at 'ludicrous' speed ( c/o Space Balls weather cinema incarnate ) may just be the one anomaly that cannot be defeated by two wrongs making a right no God atmosphere. I'll tell you ... 'always look on the bright side of life' ... It's nice to have been dealt a solid 24 hour nor'easter last week, actually NOT then sent summarily through a 60 F balm ... but rather, delivered unto thee this learning or fantasy expose' - parse out which of those to the individual consumer.. My intellect was at war with my love for dramatic weather events all week, but I think the former won for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 any Met maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm kind of thinking that the lack of a strong high to the Northeast is going to keep f-gen tied closer to the mid level lows rather than a classic NW Dendy band. This is why we love cold highs. But I guess this will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 ICON isnt THAT bad...still throws >.5 back through most of CT RI and SE MA. Would argue for low end warning amounts still...not as good as it was 6Z and definitely ticked SE a bit. RGEM on the other hand...pretty paltry looks the HRRR is right as Coastal said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Decided to check CIPS for sh**s & giggles... and 12/29/12 storm just happens to be the #1 analog for the 12Z NAM run, thats funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Cape Cod is in a sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 That was the storm Will told me that it’s a wonderful life and it’s not worth it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s interesting in that a lot of modeling initially gets the banding up to our west like into SE NY and W MA and then it consolidates well SE. It’s like a race to see if we can rotate good banding into interior SNE before the best forcing shifts SE. Actually some similarity to the 12/29/12 system in that respect. I'd be down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Man gfs has a blob just south of LI and goes over the cape. Just get that a smidge NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, JC-CT said: I'd be down No recollection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: No recollection Biggest dendrites I've ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 12Z GFS looks like noise more or less to me No help.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Man gfs has a blob just south of LI and goes over the cape. Just get that a smidge NW. James just passed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Biggest dendrites I've ever seen What were totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: 12Z GFS looks like noise more or less to me No help.. Sort of expanded the precip shield a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: What were totals? Foot+ for ECT, EMA couldn't cool though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Good luck Jimmy Hoping you get 8-10” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What were totals? theres my 8.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: the Nice...didnt even realize I probably jacked that storm. I had 12" on the driveway just measuring when it stopped. Didnt know anything about snow boards or clearing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Last 9 runs of the GFS. Ever so slight tick of improvment qpf-wise anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Decided to check CIPS for sh**s & giggles... and 12/29/12 storm just happens to be the #1 analog for the 12Z NAM run, thats funny That Jan 2015 system that preceded the big dog wasn't bad out this way 6.5"... And we like to see the Jan and Feb 2011 mentions as well. The March 2016 system was rather meh however, at least IMBY. 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Was Feb 11 the ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The mesos have it into NJ and then SE NY and western SNE before moving it east. I still wonder if that stuff near far SE areas also has a bigger convective element. Almost like a thump. Yeah, the NAM for instance really slides it east rather than pinwheeling it north like a more classic system. No real pivot. And parallel bands are notorious for the sharp northern gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2013 storm brought .57 water equivalent and 9.3 inches of snow here in Worcester. Looks like a lot less QPF for here this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Good luck Jimmy Hoping you get 8-10” What a melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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