TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 NAM still slays here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 NAM and 3KM NAM are silly, the NAM is bit less intense with the surface low while the 3KM is 12 mb stronger on the benchmark. Dynamic cooling takes over and that is why it snows with the exception maybe ACK throughout the entire duration which is only 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3k nam ponders bombogenesis. Nam seems more realistic to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Nothing to see here. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Nothing to see here. a sight for sore eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 That’s just a ridiculous 3km nam run. Not as zonked out as 18z, but to see 1”+ QPF tossed out in in such a short duration is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Is this real 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 What’s 2-6” per hour amongst friends lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Is this real Ya I don’t know what’s up with the 3km back to back runs showing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Yeah 3k was actually less impressive than 18z which says more about 18z than the 00z run. The 00z run was still ridiculous but didn’t quite match 18z. Regardless. Someone is gonna get croaked in some banding with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya I don’t know what’s up with the 3km back to back runs showing that it's spitting out 40-50dbz lol. Sometime I like double or triple check these point-and-click soundings...sometimes they load some totally funky and wonky charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 MAULed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: MAULed 70-80mph gusts over the Cape Cod National Seashore and coastal waters. Damn! And the tamer gusts will be 60-70mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I was going to post during the 12z runs and never did for 18z ones, but as Scott alluded to a little while ago, there does look to be some convective nature to this that may bring some intense banding and thunder snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I was going to post during the 12z runs and never did for 18z ones, but as Scott alluded to a little while ago, there does look to be some convective nature to this that may bring some intense banding and thunder snow potential. Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I'll take a 5-6"/hr rate for one hour, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3k NAM 997 to 981 mb = 16 mb in 12 hrs vs. 12k NAM 1003 to 993 mb = 10 mb in 12 hrs Is there a synoptic reason for the explosive deepening on 3k NAM? I can't find upper air for 3k NAM, but wondering if better upper air divergence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: it's spitting out 40-50dbz lol. Sometime I like double or triple check these point-and-click soundings...sometimes they load some totally funky and wonky charts So??? What’s your call? Is this something special? Or just a glitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, wxsniss said: 3k 997 to 981 mb = 16 mb in 12 hrs vs. NAM 1003 to 993 mb = 10 mb in 12 hrs Is there a synoptic reason for the explosive deepening on 3k NAM? I can't find upper air for 3k NAM, but wondering if better upper air divergence? 10 mb in 12 hrs is no slouch, either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Do we buy the Hi-res weenie runs.... I've been thinking this ends up a touch more progressive and limits warning snows .. to the 1-95 corridor with advisory snows for MHT- KFIT- BDL but i would like to hear from folks who are in the know checking in the last couple days I saw weenies lose the storm the other nite then swing back full weenie to 10-12 amounts NW of 95..mmmm sell that unless Euro comes NW at our latitude.... WPC has 8" amounts at maybe 10-20 % any 25-40 mile ticks will be a pretty big deal on accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 25 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: The apology storm. Another 6 to 8 on top of 14. Nice period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, wxsniss said: 3k NAM 997 to 981 mb = 16 mb in 12 hrs vs. 12k NAM 1003 to 993 mb = 10 mb in 12 hrs Is there a synoptic reason for the explosive deepening on 3k NAM? I can't find upper air for 3k NAM, but wondering if better upper air divergence? Check pivotal. They have some upper air data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The 3 KM collocates extreme upper level divergence along with an intense jet streak over the Maritimes of Canada right as the storm takes its explosive deepening route. The explosive deepening occurs at the same time the shortwave goes negative tilted, and there is a chance our surface low gets a tad stronger in future runs throughout Saturday. Convection is likely a contributor. As the low reaches the SC and NC coasts it begins to interact with the baroclinic natural boundary with the Gulf Stream and continental polar air mass over the interior of Mid-Atlantic States. This boundary spells the deep maritime instability and warmth, with the polar air mass over to the northwest of the boundary. This is when the Gulf Stream can play tricks on the HIRES models and Global Models with a natural warm front taking place as the surface low emerges off the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Honestly a 978mb at the benchmark is still plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So??? What’s your call? Is this something special? Or just a glitch? I would tend to think there is going to be one hellacious band with this. Like with last weeks storm and the one in December, there is going to be a pretty impressive baroclinic zone...perhaps even more impressive. Could be looking at +9C to +12C air in the warm sector with -5 to -6C at 850 over us. 50-60 knots of inflow into the CCB. I think sometimes the degree of banding in these types of setups is "undervalued" from the initial forecasting practices. The million dollar question is how far northwest does this banding get but there seems to be a pretty good signal for us here in CT. If the whole organization was several hours earlier (especially with the closing of the 700 low) I would think we could see another foot-plus state wide. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Nothing to see here. Lol...one for the weenie archives. Jacks me with 5.7”/hr. And yes, I know how that sounds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 icon also tones it down a bit, still a nice solid event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We held with our 3-6/6-10 for a first call but I totally agree with you. This one is really close to being an outstanding event across CT. Hope we get there tonight or early tomorrow across guidance. Where is the 3-6 and 6-10 in CT if you don’t mind me asking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We held with our 3-6/6-10 for a first call but I totally agree with you. This one is really close to being an outstanding event across CT. Hope we get there tonight or early tomorrow across guidance. Is Spencer out west somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Is Spencer out west somewhere? ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Don't look at the ICON please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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