mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: This was easily predictable. Another big SNE stretch begins. Enjoy everyone. could be painful for a bit, but tuesday could come norther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 You know ... not that anyone doesn't know this or takes it into consideration ... but, caution when using CIPs or any other analog method - Some critical aspects to keep in mind are timing, and 'best fit' constraints. Timing: the best fit analog may in fact be moving slower/faster than a given present comparison, which may by mimicry in the synoptic features ( snap shots ) look more or less similar; however, that residence time over any given location may skew the results to more or less. Best fit: may in fact be a poor fit in reality - it just happpens to be the best that can be found.. The smarts kid with Down's Syndrome - not saying that is that case here. But we bandy out these CIPs ominous references...and I frequently find when running over to the NCEP library that the 500mb and surface evolution for the analog in question may only look so-so, or not so lo good to me as real comparisons - just regarding those two primary comparison metrics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 but big trends for sunday probably stop at 18z, well maybe 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’ve been telling you all this is happening. Good things come when you keep hope alive. If all you needed was hope James and metfan would have 100” right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 41 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I have not paid attention to this one at all. What does it look like out this way, 2 to 4 inches? Maybe we can snag 3" of high ratio fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: If all you needed was hope James and metfan would have 100” right now. Yes. But this event had that good look to me and I refused to cave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 GFS aboard the EMA crush train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 That's a damn potent little s/w aint it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 12Z RPM came in zonked again, takes another ride over scotts house and does donuts in the backyard. 4-8 region wide, 8-16 in the mtns. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 WSW all of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: 12Z RPM came in zonked again, takes another ride over scotts house and does donuts in the backyard. 4-8 region wide, 8-16 in the mtns. Third best model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Gfs, getting there, keeps getting better every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Pretty sizable jump west with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Gfs is a nice look for my hood. Everything's coming up Milhouse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Cape Cod burial on the GFS. 1-2"+ per hour PLUS wind...blizzard potential? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Third best model? Like I said last night...we’re down to the SREFs and RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 32 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Wow. On the RGEM. That trend GIF is LOL ... It's interesting ...that trend - the last in the sequence shows a cyclone tracking between the Cape and the BM ( extrapolating...), yet despite that lat/lon axis ... the denser QPF struggles to find S NH. I think that reflects the compressed field/fast flow typology of system type in that their impact is narrowed - that seems to show that. But even so, that looks almost too much.. I'd also like to see more commitment to "classic mechanical" featuring ...such as more 850 mb ... 700 surfaces.. The paltry characteristic of these sigma levels, also a bit SE of ideal climo track, strikes me a potential oversell on QPF over the NW expansion.. A fast moving shred fest on radar is a viable correction NW middle CT to SE Mass This is also in flux too - I mean these metrics may look more impressive on the 18z ..as more relay off the Pac and some subtle nuanced constructive interference in an overall bath of destructive speed interference ...work so hard to hide this f'n thing's secrets ... but just based on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nice move on the GFS. Big fronto-sig over SE MA/RI that run. Someone is going to get a good band in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice move on the GFS. Big fronto-sig over SE MA/RI that run. Someone is going to get a good band in this. 60 hours is enough time for some more moves. We aren't even in the 24 hours messenger shuffle time yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Best look se mass has had in probably a couple of years 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Best look se mass has had in probably a couple of years Pretty good chance ORH area steals this one too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Best look se mass has had in probably a couple of years I'd say 12/17 was dam good with 12-15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: Pretty good chance ORH area steals this one too? There is a chance haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: Pretty good chance ORH area steals this one too? Can't be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: I'd saw 12/17 was dam good with 12-15" Yeah it wasn’t bad... I’m talking purely setup here.... this is how this area gets good snows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Pretty good chance ORH area steals this one too? Sure... anything is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nice! A good 6-8 or so will cheer me up after that last disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd say 12/17 was dam good with 12-15" I think he meant the best chance for him to get good snows without sharing with the rest of SNE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Pretty good chance ORH area steals this one too? Always possible. Though this isn't really a "stealing the snow" setup for ORH, it is more likely the type of setup that ORH will be just far enough southeast to get into the really good stuff and then Ray will complain how they are always "just far enough in one direction" to get the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Pretty good chance ORH area steals this one too? Yeah we may 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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