The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Nice tick NW on the GFS16. Good to see the H5 SW sharper and dig a little deeper. Stronger SLP. Overall system looks a lot healthier run-to-run. We take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Nice tick NW on the GFS16. Good to see the H5 SW sharper and dig a little deeper. Stronger SLP. Overall system looks a lot healthier run-to-run. We take. This particular trend movie is exquisitely useful for this specific scenario - LOL Seriously though ..it wonderfully exemplifies the high degree of sensitivity in the correct mass-field handling of the totally integrated field. The compression locks the whole thing from JB to Florida...where if the N/ stream SPV N moves even a little bit, en masse the flow geometry all he way to Florida adjusts in concert - the wave ends up more NE trajectory instead of E and that enhances cyclogen response... and blah blah - But, notice the N / stream is slightly less suppressing across this sequence of frames. Nice contribution ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Sizeable left-leaning group on the GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Looks like Ukie just scrapes, but good move NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 An hour and 15 minutes from now will be telling...does the Euro follow and continue its 6z trend NW? We hope so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like Ukie just scrapes, but good move NW. Says no, But maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks like Ukie just scrapes, but good move NW. Yeah, looks slightly more amped than the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Tough to hate the trends so far at 12z for this area. Little daytime snow and then Super Bowl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Ukie likes the 9th like the GGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 12Z GEFS probs went up quite a bit across the board. 1/3/6/12 shown. (FYI i just posted the Season To Date snowfall for CT in the snowstorm memories page, as well as all the event maps to date) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, looks slightly more amped than the GGEM Yeah I would say the UKMET is somewhere between the GGEM and the GFS. It’s a miss down here for sure. Probably not entirely up in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I'll always dance with the fishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 UKMET continues the theme. Big jump NW. Cape scraper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Ha... just saw the NAM. Nice 6-10” warning event here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 To Will's point earlier in the day (other thread...), the NAM as an 'isolated sweetener' really cannot be trusted, but trend establishing over the bevy of guidance sources lends credence. ( Obviously we don't need "reminding" that trend is not the end...so this is an evolving scenario still - just sayn' just sayn' ) The ICON - in fairness - had major short duration impact by this system over a couple runs recently ... back when it was centered more on the 8th. Also, prior to that, the Euro as we know was having an raging skizoid break with it - ...it's probable that it's governing mechanics in the general eddy were always there but the model tech at this state of the art is still lacking when there's this kind of velocity saturation/compression maelstrom characteristic messing with coherency. So we get closer in time... his system's governing mechanics appears to have been moved up in time, ...more 7th proper. That in of itself is actually a nod in favor of this thing being a real mechanics presence in the flow, because the flow is fast and the correction would tend to be to move things up - spacial-temporal placement during fast progressive flow constructs still corrects sooner.. etc. Probably, this gets earlier yet right down to now-casting ...and ends earlier too... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I'm sure other's have noted this ... but just in case - The 72/78 hour GEFs have all the spread on the NW side of the consensus cyclone track - which as 101 deterministics go ..that's typically where we'd see future model runs correct toward. Noting at 84 hours, the spread persists, with some deep members there, too - few of which are < 980... In fact, all the more depthy members are in that NW skew plot, which seems to suggest there is some track sensitivity based upon the intensity - Euro/EPS outta be a hoot - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Surface reflection and QPF not withstanding I thought the NAM & GFS looked nearly identical at 500 mb at a quick glance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm sure other's have noted this ... but just in case - The 72/78 hour GEFs have all the spread on the NW side of the consensus cyclone track - which as 101 deterministics go ..that's typically where we'd see future model runs correct toward. Noting at 84 hours, the spread persists, with some deep members there, too - few of which are < 980... In fact, all the more depthy members are in that NW skew plot, which seems to suggest there is some track sensitivity based upon the intensity - Euro/EPS outta be a hoot - A hootnanny? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Can notice a difference out west already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Euro is def west of the 06z run so far....we'll see if it is enough to get decent snows into SNE this run or if it is a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Def a more pronounced SW near TX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Yeah definitely will be west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z Euro digging more in the middle of the US @H5, Heights are higher out ahead too then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 So no phasing, this is the srn vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: So no phasing, this is the srn vort. Yeah it kind of slingshots around the northern stream in the lakes....it just needs enough room to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Pretty potent s/v going to do the work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 This thing is hauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 This is the mess I've been watching. It's been lifting N, allowing our storm to dig more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: So no phasing, this is the srn vort. It is a bit closer to having some N stream interaction...bet against that in this flow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Here she comes euro! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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