Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Some places still going big, always a chance. Looks fantastic off of Michigan. Wow NWS not backing down. The battle is on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Nov 2000 the forecast was for 6-12" if I remember correctly and we got 25". You never know with now cast LES events. Agreed. And I remember that storm very well too. I was driving back from Syracuse university and remember the band was supposed to be mostly north towns then swing quickly to the south, instead it stalled square over the metro and well that mess happened with the schools and kids, crazy for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: And it looks like those inside the 190-290 loop get passed over due to the strong winds...I still think this is a “share the wealth” band...I’d be happy with 8 or 10 inches. Hell I’d be happy with 6” of wind driven snow at this point. Our snowpack survived the “thaw” pretty good yesterday and we still have a good 4” of glacier pack. Give me 6” of wind driven snow on top and I’ll take my chances with all the possible scenarios next week and be a happy camper. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Hell I’d be happy with 6” of wind driven snow at this point. Our snowpack survived the “thaw” pretty good yesterday and we still have a good 4” of glacier pack. Give me 6” of wind driven snow on top and I’ll take my chances with all the possible scenarios next week and be a happy camper. Yea like I said earlier this will be a true week of winter. Multiple opportunities synoptic and mesoscale 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yeah our long duration LES event is more intermittent now as several synoptic systems are on the table..Gfs wants to phase in the PV next weekend..So it may be hit or miss on the LES front.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah our long duration LES event is more intermittent now as several synoptic systems are on the table..Gfs wants to phase in the PV next weekend..So it may be hit or miss on the LES front.. If the PV is that close there will be unmodeled shortwaves moving through changing the flow. Can almost guarantee it. Need to get short range models into play. It's a great look. But Lake Erie will be completely frozen in 2 weeks time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Several days of LES on the backside of that system but way out there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah our long duration LES event is more intermittent now as several synoptic systems are on the table..Gfs wants to phase in the PV next weekend..So it may be hit or miss on the LES front.. Interesting model battle there for next weekend. Like you said, GFS drops the PV on us while Euro has it about 1,500 miles northwest over the Canadian archipelago while we mild up a bit. Let’s see which way Euro goes at 12z. Such a huge difference at that lead time though is pretty remarkable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Hell I’d be happy with 6” of wind driven snow at this point. Our snowpack survived the “thaw” pretty good yesterday and we still have a good 4” of glacier pack. Give me 6” of wind driven snow on top and I’ll take my chances with all the possible scenarios next week and be a happy camper. LOL you'll get more than that just gotta get that band cranking early for us to have a shot at some good snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaistDeepSnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: So, this is the brutal February warmth they were talking about? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The 12z RGEM vs all the other models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, ayuud11 said: The 12z RGEM vs all the other models lol That bad eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Is the lake band currently trying to form over the Niagara peninsula of Ontario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The warmer air east of the lakes is a good thing, means it's snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Is the lake band currently trying to form over the Niagara peninsula of Ontario? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Eastern GLs look a little prude compared to the other lakes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Looking at most of meso models you can take niagara and Orleans out of wwa and add monroe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Looking at most of meso models you can take niagara and Orleans out of wwa and add monroe Here’s the point that actually takes all those mesos and debunks them...sho me which one has a band that formed over the Niagara peninsula...I’ll help you it’s zero...there is some snow showers south of buff and in fact I’m getting some flakes here in Williamsville, but, you can actually see the formation of the full stretch of the lake... that’s the band IMO, that will head south over the course of the afternoon and in fact is mentioned by the NWS text...NWS 1, all other models 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3k starting to get into range for Sunday evening.. Looks healthier than what the rgem shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Light snow and wind has started here. Just gassed up my car for the chase tonight. Lets go Boys! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Eastern GLs look a little prude compared to the other lakes lol Whats with all the snow over the water lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Is there a temperature that’s too cold for LES? I mean the colder the drier it probably is. Thinking of keeping my powder dry this weekend. Looks solid, but I’m only coming out there for a blockbuster event. Not really. It impacts Erie as the lake freezes. The dendrites are sometimes smaller and don't accumulate as quickly. But there have been many single digit LES Events. This one I remember vividly. 22" here for the event and 60" max off Tug. The frigid airmass, with 850mb temperatures of 25 to 30 C below, charged across the Northern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley during the weekend leading up to the event. Climatologically, this set the stage for a significant lake effect snow event. The largest lake snows in the Buffalo metro area typically occur when the cold air lifts out of the Ohio Valley and up the full axis of Lake Erie, rather than taking a direct route from the Upper Great Lakes or Southern Ontario. The slow track of the upper level vortex and its associated surface low were also recognized as key elements to portend a crippling snowfall. This pattern recognition played a huge role in forecasting this event. Lake effect snow watches were issued three full days ahead of the event with lake effect snow warnings issued over 30 hours before significant snows accumulated. As the event unfolded, blizzard warnings were issued in the Buffalo Metro area for the first time since 1993. The likelihood of blizzard conditions and snowfall amounts of 5 to 6 feet (for the Tug Hill) were discussed in the Area Forecast Discussion and with various radio media outlets days before the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yeah good point.. Canadian guidance trying to do that with next event, it's like we have no wind lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Gfs with a similar flow but the band is farther inland..Does slowly retract as the band moves north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Look at those lower heights near superior. That is literally the PV. Crazy LES potential in that timeframe. Winds would back ahead of that thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Still not budging. Your thoughts BW? I re-read the WWA for Niagara county...it does mention the band forming north then sinking south this evening...is that the main band forming over the Niagara peninsula? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Still not budging. Your thoughts BW? I re-read the WWA for Niagara county...it does mention the band forming north then sinking south this evening...is that the main band forming over the Niagara peninsula? My thoughts are watch the radar and enjoy! It's now casting time. Anything can happen tonight! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: My thoughts are watch the radar and enjoy! It's now casting time. Anything can happen tonight! Aye aye! Gonna grab a six pack like jimmy griffin once said and stay in and drink 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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