Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 41 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: That’s SBS and my old stomping grounds lol. I’m on the edge of the 8-12 and 12-18 zone. I think they are going to bust hard on this one especially from the north side of the city out to Amherst. I’m fully expecting less than 4” total here and if I’m wrong I’ll be glad to admit it. You’ve brought me into your camp...although this one isn’t for us, both the 0z and 6z GFS both had WNY over 18” of snow due to synoptic and probably some shifting bands next week. We’ll all get ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 56 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: BUF holding the line still! Even added a 18-24” zone right over my head... Southwest flow lake band should have its act together by early this evening with nearly all mesoscale guidance focusing the strongest band over far northern Erie country, Grand Island into southern Niagara county. Snowfall rates could exceed 1" per hour for a few hours across this area, before steering winds veer slightly to more west-southwest drifting the heart of an intensifying lake band more into the central Erie county, including the city of Buffalo and Buffalo Southtowns, but likely remaining north of the more typical lake effect snow areas of southern Erie county. Instead, this event should remain centered on the city of Buffalo and the Southtowns through Saturday. Snowfall rates of 1"/hr will be likely with the best chance of seeing 2" per hour rates late tonight into Saturday morning. The snow band will begin to diminish late Saturday afternoon, but likely will not completely end until the boundary layer winds become more disorganized and drier air moves in later Saturday evening. I think his one smokes you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 He’s still sitting in his corner screaming why the NWS won’t follow the model output... His model has me in a 2-4” snow hole vs 18-24” on NWS map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 27 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: He’s still sitting in his corner screaming why the NWS won’t follow the model output... His model has me in a 2-4” snow hole vs 18-24” on NWS map. It’s gotta be tough to forecast right now for SB. Half the models show a snow hole half the models show it the bullseye. I personally think it’ll be closer to the bullseye than a snow hole but you never know living in the “transition zone”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: That’s SBS and my old stomping grounds lol. I’m on the edge of the 8-12 and 12-18 zone. I think they are going to bust hard on this one especially from the north side of the city out to Amherst. I’m fully expecting less than 4” total here and if I’m wrong I’ll be glad to admit it. I haven’t been feeling this one either. It seems like there are three possible outcomes for lake storms forecasted to hit the northern part of the metro: bust, sloppy seconds in an itinerant, share-the-wealth event, or jackpot. To get a jackpot, things have to line up perfectly and there has to be unbroken model consistency for days. As a result, a bust is the most likely outcome. The best we have been able to hope for over the last nearly 20 years is that a firehose band passes over us a few times on its way to settling in the southtowns. This storm looked great for the northern metro until about 36 hours out, but once models stated depicting a flow veering towards WSW, the game was over. At this point we will be lucky to get a half foot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just like the Canadian the euro goes to town after the Tues system..Mix of synoptic/LES.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 28 minutes ago, WNash said: I haven’t been feeling this one either. It seems like there are three possible outcomes for lake storms forecasted to hit the northern part of the metro: bust, sloppy seconds in an itinerant, share-the-wealth event, or jackpot. To get a jackpot, things have to line up perfectly and there has to be unbroken model consistency for days. As a result, a bust is the most likely outcome. The best we have been able to hope for over the last nearly 20 years is that a firehose band passes over us a few times on its way to settling in the southtowns. This storm looked great for the northern metro until about 36 hours out, but once models stated depicting a flow veering towards WSW, the game was over. At this point we will be lucky to get a half foot. I mean we did get, well I did at least, 14.5” after Christmas and it was picked over for a bit, same with 2018 January blizzard but yes your point is taken. Still this one isn’t over yet... NWS doesn’t like to bust if they don’t have to do I’m still somewhat hopeful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Just like the Canadian the euro goes to town after the Tues system..Mix of synoptic/LES.. Like I said we all score...may not be 2 feet at a crack but we will all be near 2 feet by weeks end, I’m calling my shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Good luck guys. Hard to believe BUF is looking at a major lake effect snow storm but I’d believe NWS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Well if the gfs is right I'll see about 80" 6z went quite In all seriousness potential is obviously there but the hard part is getting to verify lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6z Hi Res Canadian regional... Verbatim, the band doesn't start forming til 23z Friday and again disintegrates by 21z Saturday so less than 24 hours, but precip and max snowfall on kuchera actually ticked up from 0z run. Overall placement seems very consistent with the 2 previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 42 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I mean we did get, well I did at least, 14.5” after Christmas and it was picked over for a bit, same with 2018 January blizzard but yes your point is taken. Still this one isn’t over yet... NWS doesn’t like to bust if they don’t have to do I’m still somewhat hopeful... The post-Christmas storm was great, but it was a step down from the N Buffalo/ Northtowns blockbuster that global models showed until the mesoscale models were within range. As it turned out, it was one of the best storms of the past decade, but it in no ways was a northern metro jackpot. Storms like that one are how the northern part of the metro reaches seasonal snowfall averages, but it was definitely a southtowns jackpot that we were lucky enough to see back over the northern metro a couple of times, and which had a nice residency as far north as a S Buffalo to KBUF line. I’ll take the weenie tag on this, but every season I hold out hope for a pure SW flow bomb that sits still for a day or more and buries N Buffalo and the northtowns. They are infrequent at best in good times, but we’re now approaching 20+ years (15 of you count the October 2006 storm, but that one seems to be climatologically unique in Buffalo’s recorded history). With the lake freezing up, I think the storm today and tomorrow is our last shot for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Snow is already firing in Michigan off the lake and looks quite robust. Good sign for whoever scores in WNY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Snow is already firing in Michigan off the lake and looks quite robust. Good sign for whoever scores in WNY. I checked as well, and if it looks like that upwind already then I’m willing to gamble it begins here around noontime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I checked as well, and if it looks like that upwind already then I’m willing to gamble it begins here around noontime. That's what we need to do...start a weather betting site. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Firing up on the western end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: That's what we need to do...start a weather betting site. The house would lose everything 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Firing up on the western end! Love the trajectory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Firing up on the western end! See this makes me believe these models haven’t handled this well at all. Local Mets say after evening...that will bust by 5 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 How do you get that view of KCLE Cleveland radar ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 From the looks of it, it looks like the band may be at least temporarily setting up near IAG. No model had it that far north at all that’s for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: From the looks of it, it looks like the band may be at least temporarily setting up near IAG. No model had it that far north at all that’s for sure. Most had it starting very far north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 12Z Models RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Most had it starting very far north I stand corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 3KM looks like a double band structure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: 3KM looks like a double band structure And it looks like those inside the 190-290 loop get passed over due to the strong winds...I still think this is a “share the wealth” band...I’d be happy with 8 or 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 12Z Models RGEM Most of those still hit north towns with a good shot. This isn’t going to be your typical lake set up...multiple bands, oscillation...it will all factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: And it looks like those inside the 190-290 loop get passed over due to the strong winds...I still think this is a “share the wealth” band...I’d be happy with 8 or 10 inches. In Nov 2014 we had 40 mph wind gusts that didn't disrupt the band. But usually high winds are a recipe for disaster for strong LES events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Some places still going big, always a chance. Looks fantastic off of Michigan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nov 2000 the forecast was for 6-12" if I remember correctly and we got 25". You never know with now cast LES events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now