lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Holy Smokes! Just tried the link one last time and they brought it back from the dead! On the negative side the BTV is also showing the band moving well south of the city overnight and never making it back up... Well there’s the nail in the coffin. As Porky the Pig says, that’s all folks. On to the next event. Congrats BuffaloWeather. Lmao. Crazy stuff and good find. You just made my day by finding this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Wow missed that model. Glad they brought it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 LR Hrrr Fwiw.. Which obviously isn't much lol But it's also showing couple/few inches off Erie.. Rochester proper close to several inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Well there’s the nail in the coffin. As Porky the Pig says, that’s all folks. On to the next event. Congrats BuffaloWeather. Lmao. Crazy stuff and good find. You just made my day by finding this! I think you’re overdoing it a bit. Until I see the NWS drop the advisory for Niagara and Orleans and I don’t see a low straight above Lake Superior I still think we’re good. Time will tell I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: LR Hrrr Fwiw.. Which obviously isn't much lol But it's also showing couple/few inches off Erie.. Rochester proper close to several inches.. Again these models have snow over the Boston hills and south. It’s just mind boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The incoming runs over the next hour should give us a better consensus on band placement... hopefully.... fwiw the HRRR was not the starting point many of us wanted to see... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: LR Hrrr Fwiw.. Which obviously isn't much lol But it's also showing couple/few inches off Erie.. Rochester proper close to several inches.. Yeah that gives monroe 3 to 5 inches to central and southern monroe. Even get band to me in walworth with 2 to 3 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Lake effect is usually always nowcasting anyway lol I was just trying to point out the length of the band which the gfs has been showing for days..I feel the GFS shows LES much better than the Para which I'm going to miss lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Gfs since upgrage is actually better than it used to be for sure. All the models show this even as long lasting streamers. So the idea is there for accumulating snow well inland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Here was the 18z hi res Canadian regional for the 24 hour period ending 18z Saturday... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Models even show the erie band to Oswego county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Again these models have snow over the Boston hills and south. It’s just mind boggling. I mean if they’re all showing the same thing maybe they’re on to something lol. I was half joking about it being the nail in the coffin. But when the BTV WRF shows the bands down that way like the rest of the mesoscale models it gives me a little more confidence that they may not all be out to lunch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3km nam looks like a mess of erie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yea 0z high res model output not looking good for lake effect thinking we have a shot at maybe 6hr window for a good band to get going.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NWS might be bullish on this one. If current trend holds we could be looking at a 4-8” type event lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, ayuud11 said: NWS might be bullish on this one. If current trend holds we could be looking at a 4-8” type event lol Yeah this one fell apart as quickly as the Bills in the 2nd quarter of the Chiefs game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3k holds south! Quick hit on back end of event for eastern burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 HRW set all have good 12”+ hits. Little south but in the game for the metro. Very close blend to NWS call in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Look at Rochester being the runt that picks up the scraps. Keep getting these 2 to 3 inchers guys and you'll be at normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: HRW set all have good 12”+ hits. Little south but in the game for the metro. Very close blend to NWS call in my opinion. Is that the progression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Is that the progression? No. That’s the output from each of the three different ones. That’s a good grouping. RGEM will be the tie breaker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 16 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: No. That’s the output from each of the three different ones. That’s a good grouping. RGEM will be the tie breaker. That is a good cluster. At this point it’s all about just letting it all play out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 28 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: That is a good cluster. At this point it’s all about just letting it all play out. My point and click forecast is laughable at this point. 12-21” lmfao. I’ll be lucky to see a quarter of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Canadian has LES practically everyday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 0z high resolution Canadian regional output. The band is completely disintegrated by 21z Saturday verbatim... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Isn't this model considered one of the best for lake snow 7 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 0z high resolution Canadian regional output. The band is completely disintegrated by 21z Saturday verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 22 minutes ago, tim123 said: Isn't this model considered one of the best for lake snow I think you might be right. I've never really paid too close attention to LES, but I believe I've heard the Canadian regional referenced as being a decent model for LES. Not sure if that applies to both the RDPS (10km) and HRDPS (2.5km) versions or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 BUF holding the line still! Even added a 18-24” zone right over my head... Southwest flow lake band should have its act together by early this evening with nearly all mesoscale guidance focusing the strongest band over far northern Erie country, Grand Island into southern Niagara county. Snowfall rates could exceed 1" per hour for a few hours across this area, before steering winds veer slightly to more west-southwest drifting the heart of an intensifying lake band more into the central Erie county, including the city of Buffalo and Buffalo Southtowns, but likely remaining north of the more typical lake effect snow areas of southern Erie county. Instead, this event should remain centered on the city of Buffalo and the Southtowns through Saturday. Snowfall rates of 1"/hr will be likely with the best chance of seeing 2" per hour rates late tonight into Saturday morning. The snow band will begin to diminish late Saturday afternoon, but likely will not completely end until the boundary layer winds become more disorganized and drier air moves in later Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I hope that’s @BuffaloWeather House in the little 24-30 circle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 22 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: I hope that’s @BuffaloWeather House in the little 24-30 circle. That’s SBS and my old stomping grounds lol. I’m on the edge of the 8-12 and 12-18 zone. I think they are going to bust hard on this one especially from the north side of the city out to Amherst. I’m fully expecting less than 4” total here and if I’m wrong I’ll be glad to admit it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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