Major LES Events- Feb 5-?

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah I’m guessing the NWS is not on board with that based on my above post.

Probably not, but nearly all models have showed it last 12 hours. As I've already said now casting event. Band likely starts north of Buffalo and drops south into city/southtowns.

[Thinksnow18]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Probably not, but nearly all models have showed it last 12 hours. As I've already said now casting event. Band likely starts north of Buffalo and drops south into city/southtowns.

Yeah probably right, it’s a share the wealth band

[Thinksnow18]

I guess we’ll have to see what they think about the split band idea vs. one consolidated band.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I guess we’ll have to see what they think about the split band idea vs. one consolidated band.

There is a lot going against this event. Lake temps are marginal, winds are very strong and changing, moisture is good for a limited time, and its a short time frame that LES can be produced. Friday-Sat. afternoon.

[wolfie09]

Concerning the lake effect off Lake Erie, flow initially in lake
convective layer is from sw so it now appears the strongest band
will begin over far northern Erie into southern portions of Niagara
county. Snowfall rates may exceed 1" per hour for at least a few
hours on Fri evening before winds veering to more wsw push the
increasing band of snow across more of Erie county, settling to the
Southtowns but likely remaining north of the more typical lake
effect snow areas in southern Erie county (eg. Boston Hills) and
south into Ski Country of Southern Tier. Instead, this event appears
to be centered on South Buffalo and the Southtowns and over the city
of Buffalo much of the time as well. Stronger winds will push plume
of lake snow into Genesee and Wyoming counties overnight Friday
night into Saturday, with heavier snow as far Corfu, Attica and
maybe Batavia. Overall this snow band will produce 1"/hr snow rates
with best chance of seeing 2" per hour rates later Fri night into
Sat morning. The snow band will begin to diminish late Saturday
afternoon but likely will not completely end until wsw winds become
more disorganized and drier air moving in takes toll on the lake
effect later Saturday evening.

Strong and gusty winds 20-30mph with gusts to 40 mph at times will
result in considerable blowing and drifting snow and will make the
snow hard to measure at times. The blowing and drifting and low
visibility will be big issue with this lake event compared to the
one that Buffalo Metro experienced the day after Christmas. This
will be big factor in potential hazardous travel conditions.

Turning attention to Lake Ontario, the models are very locked in
that the heaviest snows occur from later Friday evening through
early Saturday evening over much of Jefferson county and into
northern portions of Lewis county, north of Lowville. At this time
the more sw persistent wind direction does not appear to favor Tug
Hill for significant accumulations but instead will favor Saint
Lawrence River and Watertown/Fort Drum. Snowfall totals still could
easily exceed a foot for these areas especially as the primary band
of snow off Lake Ontario will not be oscillating much. Have opted to
leave winter storm watch for now with a later starting time for
heavier lake effect to develop, but could see this being converted
to a warning overnight tonight.

Away from the lake effect into Saturday, do not expect much snow
though some snow showers and flurries could make it as far as
western Monroe county off Lake Erie. Temps will be chilly everywhere
with highs in the low to mid 20s and apparent temps remaining in the
single digits above zero. There could be some partial sunshine
though.

Once the lake effect diminishes then ends late Saturday night,
weaker wave moving through may be some general light snow the area
on Sunday. Primary forcing for this passes north, so kept pops in
the chancy range for now. Temps will remain chilly on Sunday with
highs in the 20s and apparent temps again in the single digits
above zero.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Looks like NWS still going pretty big. 1-2” per hour for about 18 hours. 

[Thinksnow18]

3 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Looks like NWS still going pretty big. 1-2” per hour for about 18 hours. 

Yeah but this is now a south Buffalo and west Seneca special...what looked so good no longer does. Probably in line for a few inches at best as the band swings through...the dreaded transition zone 

[Buckeyes_Suck]

1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah but this is now a south Buffalo and west Seneca special...what looked so good no longer does. Probably in line for a few inches at best as the band swings through...the dreaded transition zone 

Sorry you’re going to be left out. If it hugs s buffalo out to just south of the airport I’ll do pretty well. 

[Thinksnow18]

36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

NAM seems to have a more WSW component to the winds then previous runs.

Good catch on this!!!!

[Thinksnow18]

1 minute ago, Luke_Mages said:

Sorry you’re going to be left out. If it hugs s buffalo out to just south of the airport I’ll do pretty well. 

Yeah I’m tucked in transit road by greiner and maple so probably a 1 mile or two too far north there will be more chances per NWS after next Tuesday 

[Buffalo Bumble]

8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah I’m tucked in transit road by greiner and maple so probably a 1 mile or two too far north there will be more chances per NWS after next Tuesday 

Don’t give up yet!  These are always nowcasting events when you’re talking about a few miles being the difference between a few inches and a a foot plus. And I’m still stubbornly optimistic with that low position sitting near Lake Superior that we end up with a longer residence time north of BUF. 

[TugHillMatt]

Nam 3K even has ME getting hit by your Lake Erie band....lol

[wolfie09]

Pops still look good, haven't decreased or increased in the last couple cycles..So obviously they expect the bands to move around.. Plenty of opportunity..

Friday

Snow before 2pm, then snow showers likely, mainly between 2pm and 4pm. High near 35. Southeast wind 13 to 17 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Friday Night

A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Southwest wind around 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday

A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Breezy, with a west wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night

A chance of snow showers, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. West wind 7 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday

A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night

Snow showers likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday Night

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday Night

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[Thinksnow18]

16 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Don’t give up yet!  These are always nowcasting events when you’re talking about a few miles being the difference between a few inches and a a foot plus. And I’m still stubbornly optimistic with that low position sitting near Lake Superior that we end up with a longer residence time north of BUF. 

I’m normally a very (almost ridiculously) positive person but I’ve lived here long enough to know better...I’m in the bridesmaid zone, the last guy picked in gym class and the friend zone...

[TugHillMatt]

21 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’m normally a very (almost ridiculously) positive person but I’ve lived here king enough to know better...I’m in the bridesmaid zone, the last guy picked in gym class and the friend zone...

...and Carol Yerdon is the bully...who steals all your lunch money...

[Buckeyes_Suck]

 

13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’m normally a very (almost ridiculously) positive person but I’ve lived here long enough to know better...I’m in the bridesmaid zone, the last guy picked in gym class and the friend zone...

On the plus side Wegmans by you never has any snow either so its easy to push my cart out to the truck.

[Thinksnow18]

14 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

 

On the plus side Wegmans by you never has any snow either so its easy to push my cart out to the truck.

See! Positives!!!

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah but this is now a south Buffalo and west Seneca special...what looked so good no longer does. Probably in line for a few inches at best as the band swings through...the dreaded transition zone 

Transition Zone Special!  Speaking of which where do we define this zone?  I always classified it as if you drew a line down Broadway on the north side and down the 400 on the south side.  

[Thinksnow18]

2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Transition Zone Special!  Speaking of which where do we define this zone?  I always classified it as if you drew a line down Broadway on the north side and down the 400 on the south side.  

Well for this one in general it appears to be broadway north to the 990 south...the pit of misery, the screw zone, suburgatory

[wolfie09]

Really hoping the gfs is right here lol

Band once again starts just south of me BUT with an impending system to our SW the wind flow starts to back..Takes about 12+ hours to get through pulaski lol

[wolfie09]

Winds never go west on the gfs , I'm in a slow transition zone from WNW-WSW lol So if it starts over me or north of me I'm probably screwed haha..

[wolfie09]

Rgem starting to show a little love with the Erie band, not much but a couple/few inches verbatim.. Would be a first for me east of Ontario, that I can remember lol

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Either the NWS call is gonna bust huge on this event or all the locals need to evaluate where they get their info from.  Is a bit concerning in my opinion that the NWS forecast map hasn’t changed at all since last night which is unusual.  Also worried as all the local models have similar differences to the NWS call.

2 puts the bullseye all the way out in Genny county.  Band should go well inland with the winds but ehh...  Starts the initial band well South almost down to Springville then pops a second northern band for a few hours before merging it into the southern band.

4 model locks the band in place south of the city for the entire event with only some slight jogs north then back south.  Can tell Todd tossed the output map and just free handed a map close to the NWS forecast.  Again it is concerning as their model never really brings the band back into the city after it slides south.

7 is very similar to 2 with the band WAY south to start the event then pops a second northern band that makes some unbelievable arch into Erie County.  Map actually looks ok but again can tell it’s been adjusted and not just the model output.  
 

 

[Thinksnow18]

11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Either the NWS call is gonna bust huge on this event or all the locals need to evaluate where they get their info from.  Is a bit concerning in my opinion that the NWS forecast map hasn’t changed at all since last night which is unusual.  Also worried as all the local models have similar differences to the NWS call.

2 puts the bullseye all the way out in Genny county.  Band should go well inland with the winds but ehh...  Starts the initial band well South almost down to Springville then pops a second northern band for a few hours before merging it into the southern band.

4 model locks the band in place south of the city for the entire event with only some slight jogs north then back south.  Can tell Todd tossed the output map and just free handed a map close to the NWS forecast.  Again it is concerning as their model never really brings the band back into the city after it slides south.

7 is very similar to 2 with the band WAY south to start the event then pops a second northern band that makes some unbelievable arch into Erie County.  Map actually looks ok but again can tell it’s been adjusted and not just the model output.  
 

 

Every one of those maps are absolutely atrocious looking. Every in-house model these stations have access to should be replaced or at very least updated. Not a chance in hell 7 comes to fruition and 2 is just, I don’t even have words for what 2 is...and Todd is smart and realizes the models suck. I believe the NWS is doing a great job with ACTUAL forecasting based on LP placement and upper air currents. These models aren’t good for much.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Ahhh!  Spectrum News here to save the day!  If we get a 30 mile wide band this might hold up.  lol

 

[lakeeffectkid383]

38 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Ahhh!  Spectrum News here to save the day!  If we get a 30 mile wide band this might hold up.  lol

 

That’s not really Spectrums forecast is it?!? LMFAO ! That looks like it was done on Microsoft Paint from Windows 98. 
 

if only the good ole BTV WRF was still around. It’s amounts were always way overdone but in my opinion it had the best placement of lake effect bands of any mesoscale model out there.

[lakeeffectkid383]

55 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Every one of those maps are absolutely atrocious looking. Every in-house model these stations have access to should be replaced or at very least updated. Not a chance in hell 7 comes to fruition and 2 is just, I don’t even have words for what 2 is...and Todd is smart and realizes the models suck. I believe the NWS is doing a great job with ACTUAL forecasting based on LP placement and upper air currents. These models aren’t good for much.

Honestly 7s total snowfall amounts look pretty reasonable to me. Everything is still on the table but IMO this is a SB/WS/Lancaster special. I would call for 3-6” for me and you if I had to make a call right now. I think we’ll get into the band for a few hours here in there but the bands do look to oscillate from time to time and think we will only see them when the band is on its northern extent. Southern extent to me is Hamburg out to East Aurora. 

[ayuud11]

8 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

That’s not really Spectrums forecast is it?!? LMFAO ! That looks like it was done on Microsoft Paint from Windows 98. 
 

if only the good ole BTV WRF was still around. It’s amounts were always way overdone but in my opinion it had the best placement of lake effect bands of any mesoscale model out there.

Bro you don’t know how much I miss that BTV WRF model lol

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

8 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

That’s not really Spectrums forecast is it?!? LMFAO ! That looks like it was done on Microsoft Paint from Windows 98. 
 

if only the good ole BTV WRF was still around. It’s amounts were always way overdone but in my opinion it had the best placement of lake effect bands of any mesoscale model out there.

Holy Smokes!  Just tried the link one last time and they brought it back from the dead!  On the negative side the BTV is also showing the band moving well south of the city overnight and never making it back up...

 

[Thinksnow18]

1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Holy Smokes!  Just tried the link one last time and they brought it back from the dead!  On the negative side the BTV is also showing the band moving well south of the city overnight and never making it back up...

 

Well I guess it’s the NWS and Todd Vs everyone else