wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Global Canadian not the biggest fan of the sat-mon period, goes to town after the Monday/Tues system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 Models are kind of all over. Even short range ones. Going to be a now cast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 FV3 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not for the faint of heart. A lot of potential. A lot of uncertainty. Definitely feel more confident off Ontario then Erie. That lake is toasty and doesn't freeze. However, chasing off Erie is much easier than Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah. I’ve actually never been to Buffalo but I’m sure getting around and lodging options are much better. Off Ontario it’s Watertown or Pulaski further south, and the Tug is...well, out there lol. I want to chase the big dog though. You can chase any event here in WNY. There are citys/towns everywhere. Tug is different story. Most of the big dogs off tug are in the middle of no where. Off Erie is almost always hits a town or city. As you said basically 2 cities to set up camp and hope it hits you. Watertown (SW wind), Pulaski (W/WNW wind) That is unless you become friends with Carol in North Redfield. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Quote .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- ...Heavy lake snows and blowing snow possible northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Friday Night through Saturday Evening... The 00z model suite continuing to suggest a deep low will pass by to our north Friday toward James Bay forcing a sharp cold front through the area. While temperature profiles suggesting rain or a rain/snow mix ahead of the cold front across lower elevations, higher terrain areas could see mainly wet snow with the potential for a few inches of accumulations not out of the question. Colder air pouring in behind the cold front will then change precipitation back over to snow for all areas from west to east. The mid and upper levels will be drying out as well behind the front. With the surface temperatures falling, there is a chance of a brief period of freezing drizzle during the transition period. Strong cold air advection in wake of the cold front will optimize mixing potential. Even the GFS, which remains on the stronger side of the model envelop with the strength of the surface low, has trended a bit lower with respect to wind speeds in the mixed layer (around 40 knots), nonetheless with some enhancement northeast of the lakes there could be a short period where winds could reach near advisory level 50 mph gusts Friday. Lake effect snow will start to flare up northeast of Lake Erie starting late Friday afternoon. Friday night and Saturday, 850 mb temperatures will drop into the mid negative teens which will increase over-lake instability with lake equilibrium levels over 8kft. Plenty of system moisture will be brought in with the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough. This combination and fact that all the lake convective layer is in the dentritic growth zone, will support a period of heavy lake snows northeast of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Friday night through Saturday evening. The dominant southwesterly flow will for the most part keep the Southern Tier and Ski country out of the heavy snow with the focus for the heaviest snow off Lake Erie expected to pile up from the Buffalo metro area northward to perhaps Niagara Falls with the strong winds aloft blowing the lake effect further inland than usual, perhaps reaching Rochester. Off Lake Ontario, the heaviest snows look to be from the northern Tug Hill up to the Saint Lawrence River, including Watertown/Fort Drum. Snowfall totals a tough call considering the strength of the wind fields which tend to lower amounts, but certainly looks to be in excess of a foot in these areas. While the heavy snow will certainly be an impact, a bigger impact may be the expected strong winds. Profiles suggesting winds could gust over 35 mph through a good part of this event causing considerable blowing and drifting snow and really cutting down on visibility causing hazardous travel conditions. See little reason at this point to change configuration of the current Winter Storm watches for the potential high impact event in terms of snow and wind. Lake snows will diminish in intensity Saturday night as first leading stronger shortwave exits east. General synoptic snow will begin to spread into western NY after midnight, but winds will shift enough to prohibit lake enhancement as the wave arrives. -- End Changed Discussion -- 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3k NAM looks good. I’m right in the middle of that northern bullseye. It’s not a double band on the radar it’s just the good ole transition zone as the band settles further north and then moves quickly further south before quickly heading back north again at the end of the run. The band is still going strong at the end of the run so I’m assuming totals will be well over a foot by the time it’s all said and done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: 3k NAM looks good. I’m right in the middle of that northern bullseye. It’s not a double band on the radar it’s just the good ole transition zone as the band settles further north and then moves quickly further south before quickly heading back north again at the end of the run. The band is still going strong at the end of the run so I’m assuming totals will be well over a foot by the time it’s all said and done. I noticed in the AFD that maybe as far north as Niagara Falls? While the NWS is stating a North Erie special, Mike Cjeika is losing his credibility. He shows the band never getting above the southtowns and bullseye is OP...I think they need new models, just as Todd mentioned himself last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 41 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I noticed in the AFD that maybe as far north as Niagara Falls? While the NWS is stating a North Erie special, Mike Cjeika is losing his credibility. He shows the band never getting above the southtowns and bullseye is OP...I think they need new models, just as Todd mentioned himself last night... If he knows it’s wrong why does he even go out an post something like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: If he knows it’s wrong why does he even go out an post something like this... Exactly...I also love the “land band” between Amherst and Clarence that forms off the Niagara peninsula...toss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 22 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Exactly...I also love the “land band” between Amherst and Clarence that forms off the Niagara peninsula...toss... It’s almost as if the overlay onto the map is off. If you shifted the entire overlay up to target metro/north towns it would look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: It’s almost as if the overlay onto the map is off. If you shifted the entire overlay up to target metro/north towns it would look good. And yet I believe they are aware of this, at least Todd was last night at 6 when he vehemently refused to show the model because it was way off and admitted it was having a lot of problems..this makes the channel look bad not being on the same page. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Interesting...that map looks completely opposite of the 06Z runs for you guys. It looks like more a general, perhaps fluctuating band for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Interesting...that map looks completely opposite of the 06Z runs for you guys. It looks like more a general, perhaps fluctuating band for the area? Yeah again it’s local guys so I take with a grain of salt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Strong winds may get this band into Oswego county lol Wouldn't be much but I also shouldn't be getting snow from a SW flow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3k fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: If he knows it’s wrong why does he even go out an post something like this... The tenths of an inch imply so much precision that you have to laugh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 3k fwiw.. Love that look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Hmm... 3k and the HRRR moved south on bullseye... Grrr.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Hmm... 3k and the HRRR moved south on bullseye... Grrr.... The HRRR is absolutely atrocious for lake effect. If that model were right I’d already be at over 100” on the season. It’s amounts and locations are so off it shouldn’t even be looked at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I like how there all showing some snow all the way to wayne county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: The HRRR is absolutely atrocious for lake effect. If that model were right I’d already be at over 100” on the season. It’s amounts and locations are so off it shouldn’t even be looked at. I’m guessing it’s the model channel 4 is tied into? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Hmm... 3k and the HRRR moved south on bullseye... Grrr.... Yeah it has a WSW wind at best. Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 One thing KBUF does well is Lake Effect. I’m riding with their forecast until told otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 The 6z GFS had round 2 of LES across southtowns and ski country. Some 4' totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: There it is!!! The first 18-24” mark on the map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now