BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 NAM doesn't look that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: NAM doesn't look that great. Dry air might be an issue.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 27 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: Dry air might be an issue.. I’m confused. The NWS has nothing about dry air. In fact it speaks of ample moisture...there’s a shortwave nearby and has moisture with it...not sure why the NAM shows it, hell even Todd debunked it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM doesn't look that great. 3k looked good and was ripping at hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM doesn't look that great. 12k output is a low resolution mess. 3k just caught onto first couple hours at 18 run and looked much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: I’m confused. The NWS has nothing about dry air. In fact it speaks of ample moisture...there’s a shortwave nearby and has moisture with it...not sure why the NAM shows it, hell even Todd debunked it... It’s something that has to given credence at this still early juncture. There’s gotta be a reason why models are not overly bullish wether it is moisture or too high of wind speeds. At least we know it’s not a frozen lake. I feel like 6-12” is a good call right now for this event, can always adjust upwards if need be but I’m not seeing anything that’s making it look like it’ll be a blockbuster atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 It's basically only Sunday night-monday now as a synoptic wave comes through, after that who knows..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Canadian was pretty week with it, starting WSW veering West..Gfs was a good deal stronger with mainly a 270-280 flow, that's the model I'm rooting for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Canadian was pretty week with it, starting WSW veering West..Gfs was a good deal stronger with mainly a 270-280 flow, that's the model I'm rooting for 270? Odd how the winds off Erie are 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 HRRR extended has a nice band cranking by 5-6pm Friday and already outputting 3” by the end of the run at 8pm. That keeps going in the same spot all Friday night and into Saturday... could be some big totals. As mentioned the winds reducing ratios could drop the snow total but still this setup is starting to look very promising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 It's for Mon which most guidance has some sort of westerly flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's for Mon which most guidance has some sort of westerly flow.. Got it...thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3k with the goods! 6”+ strip right through the city by 7am only halfway into storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 3k with the goods! 6”+ strip right through the city by 7am only halfway into storm. That’s a classic band...my unprofessional opinion...the stronger that band is the better chance it has surging any of the other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 That’s only through 7am... Just grabbed it and pulled it back north. Beautiful.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Hope you guys get yours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 48 hour WRF and ARW all fire up a band north side of the metro Friday afternoon and have 3” down by end of the run at 7pm Friday. All look to favor metro and north towns to at least open the event. RGEM tonight should be interesting!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: HRRR extended has a nice band cranking by 5-6pm Friday and already outputting 3” by the end of the run at 8pm. That keeps going in the same spot all Friday night and into Saturday... could be some big totals. As mentioned the winds reducing ratios could drop the snow total but still this setup is starting to look very promising! I could see this happening with the strong winds often creating that double band structure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Looking good for perhaps you North Erie county guys, isn't it? lakeeffect, are you still at your old home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Looking good for perhaps you North Erie county guys, isn't it? lakeeffect, are you still at your old home? Yes it’s looking rather good at this juncture. Yup LEKid still lives up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yes it’s looking rather good at this juncture. Yup LEKid still lives up here. What's your current snow depth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 43 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: That’s only through 7am... Just grabbed it and pulled it back north. Beautiful.... That band looks like some dry air in it. It's like 3 miles wide, not what we want at all tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 RGEM looks better than NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 GFS has much better moisture 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: What's your current snow depth? About 4 1/2”. Some compaction today and the temp jumped up to 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM looks better than NAM NAM seems to be on its own...but even it gets us a good hit by Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Gfs still cutting that mon night/Tues system over the eastern great lakes, pretty big lake response follows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I think the models are factoring in icing of Erie into the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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