Major LES Events- Feb 5-?

[Thinksnow18]

3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

I’m thinking northern band fires back up in next 2 hours then around midnight slides south, merges with the southern band and camps out Hamburg to East Aurora overnight.  It starts sliding north towards morning and as winds ease up we get a more solid band that will be more efficient in dumping.  Slides north to the city and dies out mid afternoon. 

Yeah that sounds about right.

[TugHillMatt]

47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

3km NAM has a pretty sweet band near Watertown by 3-4am. 

Watertown? Meh.

[ayuud11]

FYI the latest 0z HRRR model has the current band completely dying by midnight then a more organized band starts to fire up by 4-5am.

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, ayuud11 said:

FYI the latest 0z HRRR model has the current band completely dying by midnight then a more organized band starts to fire up by 4-5am.

 

 

Michigan still going strong, have a long way to go

[Thinksnow18]

Just now, ayuud11 said:

FYI the latest 0z HRRR model has the current band completely dying by midnight then a more organized band starts to fire up by 4-5am.

 

 

Well that northern band looks to be getting stronger and headed straight at the north towns.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

FYI the latest 0z HRRR model has the current band completely dying by midnight then a more organized band starts to fire up by 4-5am.

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Still getting heavy snow here, but that is a sad looking band. I'm going to take a shower and maybe a nap and see what it looks like a little later. Not worth chasing.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Still getting heavy snow here, but that is a sad looking band. I'm going to take a shower and maybe a nap and see what it looks like a little later. Not worth chasing.

Even the southern bands inflow is getting shredded into cellular bursts rather than a band.  

[TugHillMatt]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I realize that I talk about Watertown a lot around here and nobody lives there  

Haha....I had looked at it as an option.

I know you like chasing there, so you have a special connection. They've been doing really well these past couple winters.

[ayuud11]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That's all from the second band that forms at 4-5am.

[BuffaloWeather]

New WRF runs

 

[ayuud11]

Damm another snowstorm for the NYC area? weenies must be overjoyed down there lol..

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, ayuud11 said:

Damm another snowstorm for the NYC area? weenies must be overjoyed down there lol..

It's the new climo. Eastern snow storms. Eastern NY average snowfall going up. We're all going down. We rely a lot on cold air for our yearly averages. With global warming we have to expect lower yearly snowfall totals.

[BuffaloWeather]

RGEM looks better for metro

[ayuud11]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's the new climo. Eastern snow storms. Eastern NY average snowfall going up. We're all going down. We rely a lot on cold air for our yearly averages. With global warming we have to expect lower yearly snowfall totals.

Yea that's true bro.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m loyal to places that are good to me. It @BuffaloWeather can get me an epic one down there I may become part of Bills Mafia.

Too late for this year. We did have 2 good ones, one dropped 3' in Springville with really high rates. I got 30" in 2 days here around Christmas.

[ayuud11]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

RGEM looks better for metro

I think that band early tomorrow could be a good one if the winds die down a bit.

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, ayuud11 said:

I think that band early tomorrow could be a good one if the winds die down a bit.

I still have some hope we can get a good band going, until Lake Michigan shuts down we have hope. The dry air is going to work in west to east.

[lakeeffectkid383]

I don’t see any way that anyone in this band hits anywhere near 18” unless the winds die way down and this thing can consolidate. The band is just too cellular and swinging all over like a firehose. I think the upper limit of this storm is more like 12”. Would be happy to be wrong though. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Still getting heavy snow here. Has to be a few inches down.

[ayuud11]

35dBZ all the way towards Brockport. Crazy!!

[tim123]

Can see band reorganize near Cleveland on sat.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Bye Bye...

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Twin bands over Lake Erie likely to persist all night...but the band
along the south shore expected to be the dominant feature. This will
extend across immediate southern sub of Buffalo to Lancaster and
northeast to Batavia and Monroe county. In fact...this band is
feeding the multiple banded lake snow northeast of Lake Ontario that
is impacting the Thousand Island Region.

The southern lake Erie band will become better organized overnight.
While a cap of 6kft will somewhat limit the snowfall rates...once
better organized...we should still see rates of an inch an hour from
this feature into the initial daylight hours of Saturday. Strong
wind fields will push the lake plume into Genesee and Wyoming
counties overnight tonight into Saturday, with heavier snow still
looking to extend as far east as Corfu, Attica and Batavia. The snow
band will begin to diminish late Saturday afternoon, but likely will
not completely end until the boundary layer winds become more
disorganized and drier air moves in later Saturday evening. In
general few changes were made to going snow amount forecast for band
of Lake Erie. Over a foot looks likely in many areas, but totals
more toward a foot and a half will only be where band becomes nearly
stationary overnight.

Strong and gusty winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph at times
will result in considerable blowing and drifting snow and will make
the snow hard to measure at times. The blowing and drifting and low
visibility will be big issue with this lake event compared to the
one that Buffalo Metro experienced the day after Christmas. Near
whiteout conditions are expected at times. This will be big factor
in potential hazardous travel conditions.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

There’s virtually nothing left over the lake anymore... 

 

[Thinksnow18]

3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

There’s virtually nothing left over the lake anymore... 

 

Yeah and the wind isn’t that strong anymore, I think I saw Todd say at 10:30 it’s sw at 19 gusting to 31? That’s not strong at all. Something else has to be at play as well...because all the other lakes are having no issue with band structure 

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah and the wind isn’t that strong anymore, I think I saw Todd say at 10:30 it’s sw at 19 gusting to 31? That’s not strong at all. Something else has to be at play as well...because all the other lakes are having no issue with band structure 

dry air

[tim123]

Nice squall in roc now

[BuffaloWeather]

On 2/4/2021 at 10:48 AM, BuffaloWeather said:

In terms of confidence with this 1st event I'm at like a 2 out of 5. Has bust potential. Winds/Dry air/Location of bands forecasted...That's the beauty of LES, this is a now cast storm.

On 2/4/2021 at 3:33 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

There is a lot going against this event. Lake temps are marginal, winds are very strong and changing, moisture is good for a limited time, and its a short time frame that LES can be produced. Friday-Sat. afternoon.

I should of stuck with my guns. Once I saw that band going earlier, it got me excited.

[lakeeffectkid383]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

dry air

No, winds are still ripping. Port Colborne just had a gust to 59mph in the last few minutes. BUF still gusting to 40. Probably close to 50 on the lake front.