BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 First watches posted ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 inches or more in the most persistent lake snows. Winds during the heaviest lake effect snow Friday night into Saturday could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in considerable blowing and drifting snow. * WHEN...From Friday afternoon through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute on Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Not much ice on Lake Erie at all 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 NAM looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 This is through Sat. Morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I need an AED after reading the 324 NWS text forecast... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Heading into Friday night, 850mb temperatures will drop into the mid negative teens which will fully support lake induced instability with lake equilibrium levels over 7kft. Meanwhile, ample moisture will be added to the area through the passage of a mid-level shortwave trough. This combination and fact that all the lake convective layer is in the DGZ, will support a period of heavy lake effect snows northeast of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Friday night through Saturday evening. In addition to the snow, a well mixed blyr is present as cold air advection occurs. Net result, strong and gusty winds. Forecast soundings indicate at least sustained 20-25 mph with gusts at least over 30 mph. In the heart of the strongest lake convection, think these numbers end up to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. That spells trouble as temps will be dropping into the lower 20s or even upper teens and thus blowing and drifting snow will be MUCH more of an issue than we saw with the last Metro Buffalo lake snow event the day after Christmas. The strong winds may hold down total snow amounts (higher winds crush the dendrites and lower the SLRs other than what would be given the thermal profile shown), but for now have starting point of over a foot in many areas within the lake plumes off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Bullseye at least right now would be Buffalo Metro off Lake Erie and Watertown/Fort Drum off Lake Ontario. Winter storm watches have been issued for this potential high impact event in terms of snow and wind. Lake snows will diminish on Saturday night as first leading stronger shortwave exits east. General synoptic snow will begin to spread into western NY after midnight, but winds will shift enough to prohibit lake enhancement as the wave arrives. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The core of arctic air will drop across western portions of the Ontario province on Sunday. As its associated trough axis dives across the Great Lakes, a surface low will pass to our south, with some model disagreement on its track and strength. This could bring a light general snow on Sunday, but in its wake it definitely will be colder heading into next week. GFS/GGEM both drop 850mb temperatures to around -25C, with the `warmer` ECMWF down to around -19 C. This will support highs in the teens for Monday and Tuesday, and even that may be optimistic in some areas if the colder guidance verifies. Bitterly cold wind chills can also be expected. In addition to the cold, this will establish a pattern favorable for lake effect snow. Wind direction and moisture will be key, and it remains too far out to pin down the details. In general, a prevailing WSW flow will place the traditional snow belts east of the lakes at the greatest risk. Does seem at least initially early next week, better focus for the lake effect may be just south of where the weekend event is expected to occur. However, bands will meander, with the potential to impact the cities of Buffalo and Watertown at times. Overall, this WSW flow will diminish the risk for heavy snow for counties immediately south of Lake Ontario, including the Rochester area. Though if winds are strong enough at least advisory level snows could reach into western portions of Monroe county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Let’s be honest as well, this isn’t your run of the mill LES situation...the NWS is already alluding to potentially serious weather conditions due to the wind speeds...I think your idea of blizzard conditions is spot on and has a real chance of occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Enough hot dogs Thinksnow. I've been calling this event 7 days ago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Enough hot dogs Thinksnow. I've been calling this event 7 days ago. There’s isn’t a f!*k yeah emoji so it’s all I’ve got... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 I like how they said starting point is a foot. The potential is sky high with this if we can get a strong band going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Enough hot dogs Thinksnow. I've been calling this event 7 days ago. Yes you nailed it, which makes our local Mets look that much worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I like how they said starting point is a foot. The potential is sky high with this if we can get a strong band going. Agreed. I do think you were on to something with the strong winds and they mentioned the dendrites getting shredded but I agree if this locks over the metro for 12 to 18 hours all bets are off...that’s a full length if a basically wide open lake with aligned winds and moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Agreed. I do think you were on to something with the strong winds and they mentioned the dendrites getting shredded but I agree if this locks over the metro for 12 to 18 hours all bets are off...that’s a full length if a basically wide open lake with aligned winds and moisture... Yeah I think this first event is a KBUF special. We will get hit here but not as much. I'm off all week so might set up shop at my dads house. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 22. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 23. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Areas of blowing snow before 1am. Breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Too far out but NAM takes perfect track for a nice round 2 event behind it along with a few inches of snow. Look at that cold air coming in behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Some 38 degree water temps still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Too far out but NAM takes perfect track for a nice round 2 event behind it along with a few inches of snow. Look at that cold air coming in behind it. Unreal this stretch upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 KBUF going big 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Only a little ice in the western basin. She’s wide open for Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Under the convergence zone there typically is very little wind And you can still get decent sized dendrites. Western and northern New York's time to shine!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Ummmm...Andrew Baglini on 4 just called for 3-6” for the event...due to dry air...they have NO BAND for almost 10 hours on Saturday am to early evening...honestly what is wrong with them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks like BUF is still updating their page but here’s their first call. 80% probabilities of 12+ for both Buffalo and Watertown. Not to split hairs but not much guidance shows the heavier axis over the south towns, I think this their south bias on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Rgem fwiw.. Still a little out of its comfort zone.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Not much change in the GFS.. It's been remarkably consistent.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not much change in the GFS.. It's been remarkably consistent.. Yeah that’s quite remarkable...kinda like the snow donut over Matt’s house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Minus the cutter now...how is that now even possible the GFS is showing that option next Tuesday? Going from ridiculous cold in the teens to rain?! WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Gfs by Monday morning..West flow for Sunday verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I just hope those high winds don’t tear apart the bands like they did with the Jan’16 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, ayuud11 said: I just hope those high winds don’t tear apart the bands like they did with the Jan’16 event. Yeah sustained of 20-25 are not strong enough to do that. Gusts to 40 also won’t do that...the snowflake size will be sheared but with a uniform SW glow I’d be more concerned if there was directional shear I’d be concerned...I also just had to shake my head...Todd santos went to where the NWS is going with more than a foot and actually mentioned, on air their model is handling it poorly...so 30 minutes prior the other met said 3-6” and dry air...the other met says over a foot... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Northtowns special on the 18z RGEM it has SW winds locked in for over 24hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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