Hoosier Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Since I think it's meant to be for this thread, the 12z GEM has a really nice event starting Sunday evening and continuing through Monday. Probably would've been better to group together the 7th through 9th because there's a way you can get a longer duration round out of this setup, such as shown by the GEM. The ECMWF runs I cited in medium long range thread had some wave spacing between Sunday and Monday, though it's too soon to tell if we could get one longer event or two shorter events or specifically most favored areas. All we can say is that multiple short-waves that won't be sampled for a couple days lends to lower predictability than last weekend's event. Don't think the threat has really trended downward, gotta take a wait and see approach. The pieces are there for a nice event because of the tight baroclinic zone expected to be in place. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I'll merge the 6-7 thread with this one if it looks like there will be less spacing in between. Still kind of unclear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I think if the late weekend storm can slide off the East Coast and not intensify too much like the ggem portrays, this leaves the baroclinic zone further north, and allow some ridging for some amplification of this wave of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: I think if the late weekend storm can slide off the East Coast and not intensify too much like the ggem portrays, this leaves the baroclinic zone further north, and allow some ridging for some amplification of this wave of energy. No more north trends please. Lol. Time for I80 south to cash in. Would be awesome to build a snowpack to really enhance this arctic outbreak. Bring on the ice age 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 22 hours ago, WeatherMonger said: I can't remember the last arctic punch here that did not have a somewhat sufficient snow pack. Cold or bust.... One would think so but 2020-2021 winter be like rain you shall get. But this upcoming pattern has the most promise I seen all winter. Hopefully us central IL peeps can luck out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 So are we going to merge threads like RC suggested with so many storms close together? It's hard posting in like 2 or 3 threads now. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 So are we going to merge threads like RC suggested with so many storms close together? It's hard posting in like 2 or 3 threads now. Ha. Should be gaps in between main events now, so should prevent it from becoming an issue.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 So confused. Could use a Sparta map or two or even a mention of a block to clear this up. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: So confused. Could use a Sparta map or two or even a mention of a block to clear this up. Respect the block. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Should be gaps in between main events now, so should prevent it from becoming an issue. . I am guessing the the 18z Euro was not impressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I am guessing the the 18z Euro was not impressive?18z Euro does not go out far enough to cover the event in this thread. However, it was still high on the Saturday potential, for the other thread.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: 18z Euro does not go out far enough to cover the event in this thread. However, it was still high on the Saturday potential, for the other thread. . thanks my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 0z UKIE assuming ratios north of 20:1 would not be bad (actually includes a .1 or .2 form saturday night wave) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 maybe.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 woof disclaimer this is a buzz's gf woof and not a big dog woof 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z GFS on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 one and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 #Normalizeusing24hrtotals 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 i'll go with 5" final call for monday, should take depth to proper deep winter levels if saturday works out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12 z ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 euro was already weak but is trending to dust here as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 It has like multiple weak bouts of WAA up and over the baroclinic zone into our area that amount to an inch or two but yeah nothing organized really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: euro was already weak but is trending to dust here as well Good time to pull this out Hopefully it can trend to something decent. Otherwise this stretch runs a risk of being a little underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 absolutely jagsfan.gif'd this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Still a 2-4” event on the Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 GFS improved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: GFS improved Solid 3-6" event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 step back in overnight runs as alluded to by LOT this AM: WE REMAIN LOCKED IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MULTIPLE SUBTLE DISTURBANCES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW ON MONDAY. MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WE ULTIMATELY END UP WITH, HOWEVER. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN A BIT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT'S CONCERNS OF POTENTIALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN VALID, ESPECIALLY WITH THE 500 MB VORTICITY MAX ALIGNED WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING, ANY SNOW THAT FALLS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY STICK TO SURFACES CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Disappointing this turned into a weak turd. Looked promising for a few runs a couple days ago on the euro. It seems every event that shows promise in SEMI this winter turns to poo. All were asking for is one solid event in a 4 month span nov-feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said: Disappointing this turned into a weak turd. Looked promising for a few runs a couple days ago on the euro. It seems every event that shows promise in SEMI this winter turns to poo. All were asking for is one solid event in a 4 month span nov-feb. Hanging your hopes on one operational model run will usually end in disappointment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Hanging your hopes on one operational model run will usually end in disappointment. Other models had a respectable storm also. Not really a disappointment, just the usual this winter. It happens. Thanks for the obvious reminder though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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