Nelson Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 It's a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 41 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: snow depth via 12Z Euro that would be truly unbelievable shakedown 1979 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 If the ratios/flake quality are as good as seems possible with this one, it could be the best event of the season easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: shakedown 1979 Good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Respect the block. Storm will trend south folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Nice set up for all of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The block!!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Nice set up for all of next week There is very obviously a SE ridge there too. It can only trend so far south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 25 minutes ago, Stebo said: There is very obviously a SE ridge there too. It can only trend so far south. Yea think this one will probably be a higher confidence scenario track wise. With the block over the pole, there's a limit to how far northward this can reasonably track, and the flexing SE ridge should limit the ability for this to end up super suppressed. In fact, the more the ridge presses and tightens the baroclinic zone, the greater the likelihood of a more organized system imo. That polar airmass will be entrenched at the surface and tough to move, which may lend itself to an ice scenario for someone, especially if we get a more well defined system with a moderate/strong WAA regime out in front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 29 minutes ago, Stebo said: There is very obviously a SE ridge there too. It can only trend so far south. It's nice to have Stebo in our neck of the woods offering his insight and wisdom. He's kind of like a big brother for us Michigan/Indiana/Ohio folk. Thanks, Stebo 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: Cue that happening because so far this winter everything has missed me north so only logical that next it would miss me south. Lol. Hoping I can squeeze a few nice fluffy snows out of this sustained cold pattern. Would be a waste to not put this quality cold air to work I can't remember the last arctic punch here that did not have a somewhat sufficient snow pack. Cold or bust.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 14 minutes ago, Frog Town said: It's nice to have Stebo in our neck of the woods offering his insight and wisdom. He's kind of like a big brother for us Michigan/Indiana/Ohio folk. Thanks, Stebo 20 minutes ago, hlcater said: Yea think this one will probably be a higher confidence scenario track wise. With the block over the pole, there's a limit to how far northward this can reasonably track, and the flexing SE ridge should limit the ability for this to end up super suppressed. In fact, the more the ridge presses and tightens the baroclinic zone, the greater the likelihood of a more organized system imo. That polar airmass will be entrenched at the surface and tough to move, which may lend itself to an ice scenario for someone, especially if we get a more well defined system with a moderate/strong WAA regime out in front. Yeah there will be a squeeze play here which will force a strong gradient pattern at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Yeah there will be a squeeze play here which will force a strong gradient pattern at the very least. Squeeze play? Dont tell wallstreetbets 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, hlcater said: Squeeze play? Dont tell wallstreetbets GFS/GGEM/ECMWF to the moon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, hlcater said: Yea think this one will probably be a higher confidence scenario track wise. With the block over the pole, there's a limit to how far northward this can reasonably track, and the flexing SE ridge should limit the ability for this to end up super suppressed. In fact, the more the ridge presses and tightens the baroclinic zone, the greater the likelihood of a more organized system imo. That polar airmass will be entrenched at the surface and tough to move, which may lend itself to an ice scenario for someone, especially if we get a more well defined system with a moderate/strong WAA regime out in front. I can see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve23guy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Ok is this legit ?? cuz it’s supposed to be mega cold in southern wisco .. and all my forecasts don’t show any snow .. just brutal cold for Monday and Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Detroit Crush City on the 00z GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 0z GFS wave#2 weaker but north of 20:1 ratios still bring it (snow totals for both waves) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 27 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: Detroit Crush City on the 00z GFS Your standards has really dropped crush job? It’s a 4-6” event. CMC squashed the storm 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 GEFS looks aight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Expect a good amount of run to run variability on the op runs. 00z GFS is still decent but not nearly to the extent of its previous runs, while GEM is more suppressed and sheared. Meanwhile the 00z UKMET is juiced for the system with QPF up to 0.4 to 0.7 across the LOT CWA. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, dmc76 said: Your standards has really dropped crush job? It’s a 4-6” event. CMC squashed the storm He's more desperate for snow than a prost!tute who just got outta jail. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: Expect a good amount of run to run variability on the op runs. 00z GFS is still decent but not nearly to the extent of its previous runs, while GEM is more suppressed and sheared. Meanwhile the 00z UKMET is juiced for the system with QPF up to 0.4 to 0.7 across the LOT CWA. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk With temps in the teens at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Stevo6899 said: He's more desperate for snow than a prost!tute who just got outta jail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, Stebo said: Me and aaron go way back lol. I aint lyin tho. Looks like euro gonna turn it into a progressive turd. Cant get a low to amplify at the right time around these parts (MI) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Im not worried about run to run changes, there are several moving parts in a fast flow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 hours ago, Stebo said: Im not worried about run to run changes, there are several moving parts in a fast flow pattern. I agree. Everything is all over the place with location, intensity, timing, etc. The one good constant is an active pattern seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: Me and aaron go way back lol. I aint lyin tho. Looks like euro gonna turn it into a progressive turd. Cant get a low to amplify at the right time around these parts (MI) HAHAHA yo what is good Steve! Hope you are doing well brotha! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Since I think it's meant to be for this thread, the 12z GEM has a really nice event starting Sunday evening and continuing through Monday. Probably would've been better to group together the 7th through 9th because there's a way you can get a longer duration round out of this setup, such as shown by the GEM. The ECMWF runs I cited in medium long range thread had some wave spacing between Sunday and Monday, though it's too soon to tell if we could get one longer event or two shorter events or specifically most favored areas. All we can say is that multiple short-waves that won't be sampled for a couple days lends to lower predictability than last weekend's event. Don't think the threat has really trended downward, gotta take a wait and see approach. The pieces are there for a nice event because of the tight baroclinic zone expected to be in place. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 ^ pattern recognition FTW. Caveat: my weenie novice point of view. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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