Baum Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Stevo6899 said: Other models had a respectable storm also. Not really a disappointment, just the usual this winter. It happens. Thanks for the obvious reminder though. yeah, talk about kick a man when he's down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 28 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Disappointing this turned into a weak turd. Looked promising for a few runs a couple days ago on the euro. It seems every event that shows promise in SEMI this winter turns to poo. All were asking for is one solid event in a 4 month span nov-feb. The other night we had some of the heaviest rates anyone in this sub has had this Winter (outside of a lake band I'm sure). 3" fell in 1.5 hour and it was dense snow too. Total accumulation for the 4 hour event was just over 4" so obviously not a big storm, but coming from someone who has criticised many big storms over the years for taking too many hours, you should have appreciated the weather porn aspect of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The other night we had some of the heaviest rates anyone in this sub has had this Winter (outside of a lake band I'm sure). 3" fell in 1.5 hour and it was dense snow too. Total accumulation for the 4 hour event was just over 4" so obviously not a big storm, but coming from someone who has criticised many big storms over the years for taking too many hours, you should have appreciated the weather porn aspect of it. Yea it would've been cool to be home for that. Still down in Florida until march. I have a bunch of delta miles to use and planned to use them this winter if a 8+ storm looked likely. I assumed back in November I would fly home atleast once this winter but there's been no opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Yea it would've been cool to be home for that. Still down in Florida until march. I have a bunch of delta miles to use and planned to use them this winter if a 8+ storm looked likely. I assumed back in November I would fly home atleast once this winter but there's been no opportunities. you can fly home if you want tundra lol. The snowpack is frozen dense so everything on top will build it up. Definitely looks like deep winter. Next potential good one is next Friday. Only 2 of the past 20 winters have not seen a 6 plus inch storm and there were 36 such storms in that time frame. I think we will get one however I also have a funny feeling it will come in March. Obviously we remember the February 2015 bitter cold as having very deep snow, but some of the other infamous February cold snaps of years past have had very little snow cover and then we get a big March storm. In fact 2 of the more infamous cold snaps were Feb 1899 & 1934. During each of those cold snaps we only had around an inch of snow on the ground, then March brought a big snowstorm (12+ in 1899, 10 in 1934). It could be worse... Bismarck will be spending most of the next 2 weeks with wind chills between 30 and 50 below 0, dew points in the -20 's and no snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 KLOT thoughts for Monday Snow is likely to be ongoing across, at least southern portions of the area at the start of the period Sunday evening. This snow will likely overspread the rest of the area for Monday into Monday evening. Given the strength of the baroclinic zone across the area, we are likely to see some enhanced isentropic upglide and bands of lower level frontogenesis develop with each approaching mid-level impulse, and this should in turn support at least some locally heavier periods of snow, especially on Monday and Monday evening. A deep dendritic growth zone in this arctic airmass is also likely to support high snow ratios (possible in excess of 20 to 1 at times), and this should in turn support some notable snow accumulations through Monday evening. With this in mind, we will have to keep an eye on the snow amounts for this period, with advisory level snow amounts (2"-5") certainly looking probable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 This one is fading away as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: This one is fading away as well all good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: This one is fading away as well Our promising week is quickly becoming cold and dry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: This one is fading away as well Looks the same as it has the past few days...A few to a couple of inches for a wide area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Looks the same as it has the past few days...A few to a couple of inches for a wide area. yep. the hope is you can spring a big dog while the ingredients are there, Fretting over every 24-36 model depiction of these various impulses in this flow is useless. Embrace the ride. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Baum said: Fretting over every 24-36 model depiction of these various impulses in this flow is useless. on point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I happen to love these refreshers. Just enough to cover the old crusty bits of snow and make it look fresh. Reminds me of a ski resort out there tonight 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Our promising week is quickly becoming cold and dry. Yes. As a met I'm sure you know the possibility of a shut out with the arctic overtaking the pattern with suppression exists. But I'll take my chances with that given the ingredients exist for some decent events compared to the pattern from 12/1-1/16. Can't win em all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, Baum said: Yes. As a met I'm sure you know the possibility of a shut out with the arctic overtaking the pattern with suppression exists. But I'll take my chances with that given the ingredients exist for some decent events compared to the pattern from 12/1-1/16. Can't win em all. At least we have snow on the ground, but, yes, suppression always a concern, especially with cold of this magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: At least we have snow on the ground, but, yes, suppression always a concern, especially with cold of this magnitude. The last of my snow cover down here melted yesterday. Trying to start over tonight but it doesn't look like much. #Jennings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Keep hope the GFS is wrong. Not so improbable. Ukie and GEM look promising 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Keep hope the GFS is wrong. Not so improbable. Ukie and GEM look promising Keep hope? Are you feeling okay? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The magnitude and longevity of this arctic outbreak is a feat in itself. Can't recall the last time I saw a pattern like this. Like Baum said, predicting low amplitude impulses in this flow is fickle. Hoping we can either get several small events or one decent one next week. It's a battle between cold surging south and moisture surging north. Unfortunately the cold will eventually win out and suppress the storm track. Hopefully we can squeak out a few nice storms before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 20 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Keep hope? Are you feeling okay? lol Feeling strangely optimistic.Never hurts to see mounds of snow either. At this point playing with house money 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 seems to be a consensus between 12z NAM and GFS of a general 1-3 inch refresher area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 This looks decent now for here. Was expecting this to be mostly an I-70 special. Looks like we might get a little more from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Should add some more sparkle to the snowpack here tomorrow night. The question is, will this be a sugar snow or a fluffy snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Very Light snow here now Perhaps the first patch of many the next few days 18zNAM nickels and dimes central IL 2-4 inches by 18z Tuesday then a brief break before the weds system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Bring on April please this pattern is a write off here in SEMI and SW Ontario plenty of cold but no storms possible this far north (suppression) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Owensnow said: Bring on April please this pattern is a write off here in SEMI and SW Ontario plenty of cold but no storms possible this far north (suppression) That's not necessarily true. Anything is possible. We will see several bouts of snow this week to add to our snowpack. Nothing significant at this time however the models are in pure chaos mode struggling with multiple waves. Just embrace deep Winter in the Great Lakes for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Have picked up a solid 1/2" maybe closer to 3/4" and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 hours ago, WeatherMonger said: Have picked up a solid 1/2" maybe closer to 3/4" and still snowing. You been lucking out with some nice bands. Bypassing here per usual. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Over performed here a bit. Good solid 4 inches of fluff. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Been SN to -SN here for the last 2 or 3 hours. Pixie to quarters and back again but steady. About an inch so far. There seems to be a touch more moisture than forecast (doesn't take much with these temps) and the subtle forcing seems to be hanging around longer than forecast. Returns to the west looking decent so maybe add another inch or 2 by morning if we're really lucky. Keep the Swoop McClain ripples coming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Woke up to a surprise this morning. Measured 2.2" new snowfall. This has to be like 40:1 ratio. Total fluff. Cotton balls still falling. Pretty cool. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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