February 1st bust

[Violentweatherfan]

3 hours ago, Animal said:

Who watches the stables? I need Elon musk to  build a massive e weather station.

the idea that my forecast was for at a minimum of 8-10 and I end up with 5-6  if it snows to Tuesday night I’d just wrong.

Sorta asking how again how this occurs.

No longer cheering.

Wait wut, Elon Musk. 

No

[Violentweatherfan]

1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

You're a youngin'.  There's plenty more time for non-Miller Bs. 

Whenever you get a whiff of "Mr. Miller B" in the air, run the other way from the models, assume a dry slot will set up somewhere near or on top of you, or you get stuck under the subsidence of some Canadian high, and you'll get screwed while someone else cashes in.  And if you are fortunate to get under a norlun, celebrate.

Lol, Miller B's are a given. There's no avoiding them. 

[JSharp]

Any of these storms are far better than last year. We have to be grateful. We will most likely have an above average winter now.

[Animal]

Final total 5.3 inches..biggest bust Eva.

[Heisy]

9 hours ago, Violentweatherfan said:

All I can say is damn is it must be frustrating to be a paid met. Everything was there, how can you go against what the "model consensus"?  I'm bummed but not gonna rail against those that share what they learned over the years and posted for us to read that a huge Milller B was gonna shellac us and didn't. 

I think a lesson learned for myself and others is h7 pass. Anytime you see the models have an h7 low on top of us you should expect a warm layer to exist. Need it to be farther SE

[Animal]

6 hours ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Wait wut, Elon Musk. 

No

Elon knows weather..my brother has over 2ft...not crapping you..he further text me..another huge storm is possible..done with winter..

[Lady Di]

There’s always a screw zone.  I thought this might happen and tried to keep the 6-9 inch as my expectation.  Had all that sleet been snow very well could have went over. Sleet is the worst!!  

Still have flurries. I may have picked up close to a whole inch over night.  Can’t tell yet, too dark. 

[LVwhiteout]

26.5 inches on the ground, Still snowing lightly.  Temp 30.5.   4 miles west of Allentown, Pa.

[Hurricane Agnes]

9 hours ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Charming discussion. 

 

I feel I should chime in here. No forecaster--professional or amateur, would've predicted some of the totals we've seen today with this storm. Often, in complex setups that bust, we can look back and go, "ah, well really the signal was there in the form of {these models/the basic physics/some meteo concept}. None of that applied here. The models were unanimous: lots of snow. Maybe some mixing. Not tons. Not super far N. The physics backed that up--cold air mass in place. This afternoon's afd mentioned that the warm air was actually due to air coming in from the ORIGINAL low, e.g. over Ohio. Frankly none of us were paying attention to that, and neither were the models, or anyone else. But that isn't necessarily a fault. In cases where one model say snowtopia and the other says "oops all sleet!", you can castigate mets who go the weenie route.

There are and will always be people who DO "pay attention to that" and other things going on and do not always model hug (there are/were multiple lows swirling around those directly associated with this storm, including a weak one that rolled off the coast of the Carolinas).  My own personal analogy to trying to nail down a Miller B is somehow creating an algorithm that can determine where an Olympic long-jumper will land at the end of a jump, once they start their run, and finally launch themselves off the ground.  There are all sorts of parameters associated with that process and the use of statistics, although helping to narrow the possibilities, still introduces errors that really can't be helped due to other factors that can impact result (the runner and their vitals, the track type and conditions, the air conditions, etc).  You can ballpark it but that is about all.

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The thing with Miller B's is, we do have all these axioms...dry slot here, don't trust this, someone's getting shafted. That *isn't* actual meteo. That's how you justify to yourself why you feel cursed. Miller A and B storms are, scientifically, OBJECTIVELY, the Philly area's best chance for sig snow. The analogy of a car engine is correct: for many reasons, to get a good snow here, conditions need to align quite well. And with climate change, as we have seen, those opportunities are dropping. As I said a few days ago, I strongly believe climate change is affecting model performances for these events. If you can't correctly model incoming and outgoing radiant flux, you're going to screw up a lot of your secondary calculations. Weather models depend on, well, certain assumptions about our climate. If those assumptions are now even slightly off, we all know well enough how that translates via the butterfly effect (*cough 180 hour forecasts cough*).

Sometimes "common sense" needs to be used.  When one storm weakens and starts to die out just as another one starts to form some distance away, and you are located somewhere between them, then that equals "dry slot" (an area of little or no precipitation).  In other words, you are now "between 2 systems".  There really is nothing more "complex" or "meteo" about that.

I do agree that climate change is impacting these models in terms of an assumption that they are including some type of typical "climo" data (i.e., based on some past "x" years of weather conditions to determine what is "more likely to happen" in a particular case).  There will always be a "freak" set of circumstances that will be outliers but I think other factors, like climate cycles, are also hard to nail down to include in that "climo" data, and might or might not be used in a model.  For example, the current PHL all-time record low of -11F (2/4/34) since record-keeping began back in 1870 here, hasn't been matched again (yet).  And so far, since 1994, the city still hasn't registered a temp below 0.  The heat island (often mentioned by Paul) is real.  The city's defacto building height restrictions were breached in the mid-80s and the skyscraper construction since has created a dense masonry/metal/glass heat sink.

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In 2009/2010, Miller B storms were what gave us those historic incredible snow totals. In 2016, a miller A hammered us. WE ARE NOT WRONG in expecting major Nor' Easters to produce snow for most of us, and it is NOT bad forecasting if that doesn't pan out. On average, if you assume big snow totals out of a miller B with arctic air in place, you will be right more than wrong. Forecasting is an art not just a science. Figuring out the low position down to the mile at a given hour in advance is very hard. Models do fairly well...within 10-20 miles. The problem here wasn't the coastal low's placement, it was warm air from the original low. Case and point, I, in CC phl, had to scrape 2" of sleet off my car today below the snow. That is about 6" of a 10:1 ratio snow, that we got 2" of instead. That'll do it.

This area's proximity to a HUGE body of (relatively warm) water means an increased possibility of large precipitation events, any time of the year.  It's that simple.  Whether it is a noreaster in the winter or a hurricane in the summer.

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Now, here's another thing to realize. Snow is going away long term, for us due to climate change. Waive goodbye. So instead of feeling sad cause you didn't get 2 feet, be happy this isn't 2020 where we couldn't get an inch....heck, it's been 3 years since we had a significant storm that didn't TOTALLY bust (2018). As the planet warms, our local climate does too on average. We aren't gonna see the end of snow any time soon, but over time, average yearly snowfall around here will drop. We've already been seeing it to a degree. Shorter cold periods, 70s heatwaves in December. Less sustained cold. More mixed precip events perhaps (not sure there's a study on that but would be unsurprised if that finding held up). You tell me.... look back on your time in Philly and tell me winter today feels like it did 20, 30, 40 years ago (for those who were around here then). Yeah you can cherry pick a good year here or there, I mean on average. Is it any wonder then, that we bust so often, and miss out so often?

I have taken note a couple decades ago when the Carolinas were plagued with ice storms.  That phenomena gradually moved north including this area - notably 1994 when we started getting an increase in ice storms.  It was sortof the canary in the coal mine (1996 aside).  That also corresponded with the year with the last below 0 temp in the city proper as well.  The ocean SSTs have warmed further north over time and that large body of water off the coast has a major say in what happens here. 

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We are in a La Nina this year as well. We were not expecting much in terms of snow. We've had 2 fairly-decent storms. We may see a couple more in Feb alone if we are lucky. We're doing quite well, relative to what a La Nina can do for us. I for one, am happy--I had an extra unplanned day off from work, I went for a walk and enjoyed the snow we DID get, and just appreciated the return of a feeling of winter and the happiness I saw on so many people's faces today (at least those that weren't driving). So instead of complaining things didn't work out exactly as planned, STOP. Sit. Breathe. Appreciate that we got some snow, that we have technology that remotely lets us predict the freaking future, and will probably still get a bit more tomorrow. You're (probably) not going to die tomorrow...there will be MORE snow events to freak out over (and be disappointed by). If you truly want to see amazing snow without having to get everything perfect...do what professional chasers do...GO to IT. Figure out where it's gonna snow crazily, book a trip, and go there.

Thankfully I'm retired so I don't have to deal with trying to drive in this. It'll be enough of a PITA to clear off my SUV.  And regarding chasing, I expect you missed back when this place was called "Eastern Weather" and the Admins (including Randy), along with a bunch of others who frequent the MA Forum, chased a Tug Hill Plateau lake effect monstrosity and "live blogged it", complete with pics.  I'm not sure whether that got archived on the site somewhere with the name change of this site, but it was fascinating to follow.  I know there are chasers at AmWx (notably chasing hurricanes - e.g., Josh) and Wentzadelphia does appear to try to chase winter storms and BBasil chases severe for photos.  I always appreciate the contributions of many who post here.

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And finally, to those who DID get snow, don't be an ahole. Don't rub it in people's faces, don't say "I don't care about so and so region"...do you know how that makes people feel? Think about it a sec will ya? Angry. Sad. Upset. Stop it. Stop throwing out insensitive crap into the universe: it very, very clearly sucks enough these days as it is...so please, practice some freaking decency and kindness to others, and learn some empathy. We are all on this planet together, and most in this forum are quite close, at that.

 

End rant.

This place has as variety of weather lovers who either enjoy a specific type or all types of weather situations - whether winter-related and/or severe and/or tropical.  Much of what goes on here involves a lot teasing and "banter", and there will always be trolling (as with any web discussion forum and mods usually take care of it). In general, this particular sub-group is pretty laid back compared to the others. But I think people will eventually move on to the next event and I expect that most here are "adults", so "parenting" (when not a mod) probably isn't called for.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Not sure how this was a widespread bust. Maybe some localized areas? Widespread 12"+ majority of E PA  N of the Turnpike. Mixing happened in SE PA as modeled (oddly the mesos failed here and the GFS the entire week was showing a sleet event for S PA....go back thru the runs). Yes, it did go farther N and W with the sleet but those areas still did very well and right in the NWS 12-18" range (the higher forecast areas the NWS had didnt mix or not for long still within NWS range of 18-24"). Only areas that hung on longer to the sleet that actually screwed them was confined to 5 miles S of the Turnpike to the DE border no? I mean, this thread is fine to vent but i don't think this is a huge bust. If you really feel this is the worst bust ever, you haven't been around long. There will be a next time. Chin up.

[Animal]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not sure how this was a bust. Maybe some localized areas. Widespread 12"+ majority of E N of the Turnpike. Mixing happened in extreme SE PA as modeled. Yes, it did go farther N and W with the sleet but those areas still did very well and right in the NWS 12-18" range. Only areas that hung on longer to the sleet that actually screwed them was confined to 5 miles S of the Turnpike to the DE border no? I mean, this thread is fine to vent but i don't think this is a huge bust. If you really feel this is the worst bust ever, you haven't been around long. There will be a next time. Chin up.

It was a bust on my street...rather significant 
I will no longer comment on the topic.

[ChescoWx]

10 hours ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Now, here's another thing to realize. Snow is going away long term, for us due to climate change. Waive goodbye. So instead of feeling sad cause you didn't get 2 feet, be happy this isn't 2020 where we couldn't get an inch....heck, it's been 3 years since we had a significant storm that didn't TOTALLY bust (2018). As the planet warms, our local climate does too on average. We aren't gonna see the end of snow any time soon, but over time, average yearly snowfall around here will drop. We've already been seeing it to a degree. Shorter cold periods, 70s heatwaves in December. Less sustained cold. More mixed precip events perhaps (not sure there's a study on that but would be unsurprised if that finding held up). You tell me.... look back on your time in Philly and tell me winter today feels like it did 20, 30, 40 years ago (for those who were around here then). Yeah you can cherry pick a good year here or there, I mean on average. Is it any wonder then, that we bust so often, and miss out so often? We are in a La Nina this year as well. We were not expecting much in terms of snow. We've had 2 fairly-decent storms. We may see a couple more in Feb alone if we are lucky. We're doing quite well, relative to what a La Nina can do for us. I for one, am happy--I had an extra unplanned day off from work, I went for a walk and enjoyed the snow we DID get, and just appreciated the return of a feeling of winter and the happiness I saw on so many people's faces today (at least those that weren't driving). So instead of complaining things didn't work out exactly as planned, STOP. Sit. Breathe. Appreciate that we got some snow, that we have technology that remotely lets us predict the freaking future, and will probably still get a bit more tomorrow. You're (probably) not going to die tomorrow...there will be MORE snow events to freak out over (and be disappointed by). If you truly want to see amazing snow without having to get everything perfect...do what professional chasers do...GO to IT. Figure out where it's gonna snow crazily, book a trip, and go there.

 

 

Nice post until climate change....that made me laugh! While we all of course believe in climate change....because fact - climate is of course always changing..... Now man made warming or change?? I for one am confident this is simply a warmer cycle - check out my analysis for Chester County PA - away from the dreaded PHL heat island impact. By the time any of this speculation becomes settle science and fact....like the world is round....you and I will be long gone from this mortal coil!!

[Lady Di]

Animal never said "widespread" just for the record.  I'm sorry he feels that way, and sorry I get amused at a vent thread turning into a lecture.

Still have light snow and think my area will end up around the 6" mark by the end of the day.  Some people, in my opinion, should be allowed to call that a bust.  I'm happy to see the snow, anytime and anyhow I can get it. I decided to work remotely again today because I don't want to go out in it.  At least is was enough to plow. Barely, LOL.

Onto the next one.

 

[Shenanagins1091]

Not sure why everyone hates the GFS. I stuck with the old gal and feel pretty good about what I told folks since it played out basically perfect per my expectations. Guys like WXrisk and EPAWA plus kuchera map weenies are to blame for pissing people off. This wouldn't be considered a bust if people weren't told to expect a foot or more when they got 8"

[Albedoman]

if anyone has a true meteorology educational background, they know this storm event was not a bust.  MIller B's are notorious for this widespread precip types in a very narrow areal viewpoint.  Sorry that many of you were on the short end of the stick when it came to snowfall amounts but Miller B's are a starve to gluttony situation when it comes to final snowfall counts. For once, the Lehigh Valley was the jackpot zone- which has been rare in the last 20 years when compared to Philly and NY with Miller B's.  Hopefully you drain your sorrows down with a beer and wait for  a potential monster on Sunday- Monday with the possibility of actual Miller A storm event where everyone scores big.

[bluehens]

It’s snowing harder now here than at any point yesterday. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, bluehens said:

It’s snowing harder now here than at any point yesterday. 

Right? People should always wait until the event is completely over. Not saying anything more significant accumulates, but cancelling at the midway point sometimes isn't the best course of action.

[zenmsav6810]

36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Right? People should always wait until the event is completely over. Not saying anything more significant accumulates, but cancelling at the midway point sometimes isn't the best course of action.

One of the reasons I haven't commented until now. There's no dance the snow gods like better than the weenie jump... it eggs them on! 

[kickingupastorm]

How tf did Ardmore only get 4 inches? Final Totals tend to be mostly 6 inches and below....how, exactly?

i actually and legitimately do not understand this.

[bluehens]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Right? People should always wait until the event is completely over. Not saying anything more significant accumulates, but cancelling at the midway point sometimes isn't the best course of action.

Ralph this isn’t the midpoint. This is pity flakes for us to the south. This storm is over. Already drying up out there on radar. 

[Lady Di]

Just now, bluehens said:

Ralph this isn’t the midpoint. This is pity flakes for us to the south. This storm is over. Already drying up out there on radar. 

Right, there will be a HUGE difference once the final totals are in.  At least we managed another inch this morning.  Back to flurries and getting brighter out there.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, bluehens said:

Ralph this isn’t the midpoint. This is pity flakes for us to the south. This storm is over. Already drying up out there on radar. 

Was referring to him creating this post early evening yesterday which was about midway

[hazwoper]

6 hours ago, Animal said:

Final total 5.3 inches..biggest bust Eva.

you were expecting 8-10 and got 5.3" (guessing more by now as well).  Yet this was the biggest bust ever???  OK

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

you were expecting 8-10 and got 5.3" (guessing more by now as well).  Yet this was the biggest bust ever???  OK

March 2001...20"-30" widespread forecast just 12 hrs before event. Most spots across SE PA saw 1-2". THAT is a bust. 

[Violentweatherfan]

Don't forget 2015

[The Iceman]

Don't think bust is the right word but I will say the storm was officially a disappointment for my area and I'll just leave it at that. I said before the event that my baseline was a foot based on the calls of 12-18"+ by the nws (which was upped to 16-22" during the event). Absolutely zero mention of sleet in my forecast until it started sleeting. So with all the hype and hoopla, this one's a disappointment for here. We went in with a chance of historical and came out slightly above average. Less than a foot spread out over 3 days is a solid event but solid won't be remembered in a few years time and with the set up in place for this one, I was aiming higher than solid. Just my two cents.

 

 

 

 

[Animal]

4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

March 2001...20"-30" widespread forecast just 12 hrs before event. Most spots across SE PA saw 1-2". THAT is a bust. 

Yea..that’s turn out the lights stuff.

[zenmsav6810]

6 hours ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Don't forget 2015

2001 was classically bad (so bad it ruined a guy's career)... 2015 was ironically bad in the sense that we should have never fallen for it in the first place. 

[MGorse]

Interesting thread.

[JTA66]

32 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Interesting thread.

It's another example why we no longer have red taggers in our forum.