Animal Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I expected at a minimum of 8-10. What I have is 4 . Vent 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 All I can say is damn is it must be frustrating to be a paid met. Everything was there, how can you go against what the "model consensus"? I'm bummed but not gonna rail against those that share what they learned over the years and posted for us to read that a huge Milller B was gonna shellac us and didn't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 Who watches the stables? I need Elon musk to build a massive e weather station. the idea that my forecast was for at a minimum of 8-10 and I end up with 5-6 if it snows to Tuesday night I’d just wrong. Sorta asking how again how this occurs. No longer cheering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Massive massive bust to the SE part of forum. Should have known better with Miller B but I mean every single model was showing it. Need to factor in experience more. Know better. This time last night my area was upgraded to 10-15” along with lower Chester and Delco. Maybe 4-5” total to show for it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Our snow is like having to get all the parts of an engine together to run it only takes one thing off. There was no way of anticipating the primary would be kissing the Jersey coast and that moved the goal posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, bluehens said: Massive massive bust to the SE part of forum. Should have known better with Miller B but I mean every single model was showing it. Need to factor in experience more. Know better. This time last night my area was upgraded to 10-15” along with lower Chester and Delco. Maybe 4-5” total to show for it. Agree.. why did it occur? Elon musk knows... simply put .. I don’t want the standard answers.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 We seem to be in a new phase the last four winters of closer primary lows. The eight years before that we had distant coastal lows and Jersey/extreme SE PA repeatedly smashed it. Must be a cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, RedSky said: We seem to be in a new phase the last four winters of closer primary lows. The eight years before that we had distant coastal lows and Jersey/extreme SE PA repeatedly smashed it. Must be a cycle. It’s disappointing because you look at the companies and see the ideas. Sick and tired being told ..the L moved.. or some other bs story..feels like I live in Washington Dc 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 It's all about expectations. If we had been forecasted 6-12" like originally progged 48 hours out then this storm would feel like a big win. But jacking up totals hours before the storm only to get the chain yanked feels like a loss. You really can't go all in on an event in these parts until the storm is occurring. I mean every 00z last night had 18+" every single model over my house and I'm sitting at half of that... what's the point of even looking at them when they are that off at 6 hours lead time.. not a single model even came close to this storm.. that really says something. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shenanagins1091 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Eh, my personal predictions of 5-10 Philly s&e and 7-14 n&w look great. I didn't hug the Euro and kuchera ratios like some did. Certain models always had the precip being mixed for lengthy periods of time right into PHL, but it did go a little bit further than inland than expected. It's only a bust if you hugged the wrong models and maps and ignored others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: It's all about expectations. If we had been forecasted 6-12" like originally progged 48 hours out then this storm would feel like a big win. But jacking up totals hours before the storm only to get the chain yanked feels like a loss. You really can't go all in on an event in these parts until the storm is occurring. I mean every 00z last night had 18+" every single model over my house and I'm sitting at half of that... what's the point of even looking at them when they are that off at 6 hours lead time.. not a single model even came close to this storm.. that really says something. I keep it real..always saw the models etc.. most gave my street at a minimum of 8 inches.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Shenanagins1091 said: Eh, my personal predictions of 5-10 Philly s&e and 7-14 n&w look great. I didn't hug the Euro and kuchera ratios like some did. Certain models always had the precip being mixed for lengthy periods of time right into PHL, but it did go a little bit further than inland than expected. It's only a bust if you hugged the wrong models and maps and ignored others. "Little bit further inland..." What's 100 mile further north among friends? There wasn't a single model that had the mix line anywhere above 195 in nj. And it went 75 miles north of 195. Massive bust in central jersey no beating around the bush. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: "Little bit further inland..." What's 100 mile further north among friends? There wasn't a single model that had the mix line anywhere above 195 in nj. And it went 75 miles north of 195. Massive bust in central jersey no beating around the bush. Fu ... this is ridiculous. Howard Eskin was right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I mean central NJ, and far SE PA/northern Delaware busted, but almost everywhere else in Mount Holly's CWA did within one "snowfall category" of their expected value or overperformed slightly (and there will likely be another 2-4 inches on the backside before it is all said and done tomorrow. I can see the frustration, but in terms of busts from an area-wide standpoint this is relatively low, and has to do with mesoscale factors you just aren't going to get exactly right in a situation that relies on a deformation band. I think the folks on the SW side (like Delco-New Castle county) could have maybe been forecasted lower amounts with more predictability... but there is no way you are going to actually forecast the central NJ snow hole in this event... I mean you have 12-18 inch totals in Middlesex/monmouth, and likely near 12 inch totals eventually in Bucks, and possibly 8-10 in parts of Burlington... how would you ever guess central NJ gets shafted in between them? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: I mean central NJ, and far SE PA/northern Delaware busted, but almost everywhere else in Mount Holly's CWA did within one "snowfall category" of their expected value or overperformed slightly (and there will likely be another 2-4 inches on the backside before it is all said and done tomorrow. I can see the frustration, but in terms of busts from an area-wide standpoint this is relatively low, and has to do with mesoscale factors you just aren't going to get right in a situation that relies on a deformation band. I am in no way faulting forecasters at all here. I think what they put out was reasonable given the almost unanimous agreement amongst the models. My saying it was a bust is just stating a fact for my area. We all know at this point we are not squeaking out much more than an inch for the remainder. Looking at current radar tells me all I need to know at this point. I can’t believe the amount of dryness out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 11 minutes ago, bluehens said: I am in no way faulting forecasters at all here. I think what they put out was reasonable given the almost unanimous agreement amongst the models. My saying it was a bust is just stating a fact for my area. We all know at this point we are not squeaking out much more than an inch for the remainder. Looking at current radar tells me all I need to know at this point. I can’t believe the amount of dryness out there. Fair enough, I can certainly understand the frustration, and in some ways when it is only a smaller area of a subforum that busts (while some pick up ridiculous amounts) it makes it more painful than a region-wide bust, like some of the other events the last couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 Look I am troubled by this storm. I am old..41 been hearing the same bs stories for 26 years. the L moved. are you effing kiddding me. I had been told expect snow. I had 17 hours of sleet. Its sleet so hard...people take care of your health..wife just told me screech died. wife..told me Dustin died... Sad day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 5.2 storm total.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Worcester, Pa. Moderate snow. 29 degrees. I estimate 10.0" considering compression with the extensive sleet this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 27 minutes ago, Animal said: I am old..41 been hearing the same bs stories for 26 years. You're a youngin'. There's plenty more time for non-Miller Bs. Whenever you get a whiff of "Mr. Miller B" in the air, run the other way from the models, assume a dry slot will set up somewhere near or on top of you, or you get stuck under the subsidence of some Canadian high, and you'll get screwed while someone else cashes in. And if you are fortunate to get under a norlun, celebrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, Animal said: 5.2 storm total.. I feel ya. We got majorly shafted a couple of years back under an almost identical setup. I lived near Coatesville at the time and we were forecasted something on the order of 1-2' of snow. What we actually got was 6" of nothing but sleet. I remember being as angry and as disappointed as you. It sucks, for sure. Hoping you and the rest of the region get better snows in the following weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 36 minutes ago, Animal said: Look I am troubled by this storm. I am old..41 been hearing the same bs stories for 26 years. the L moved. are you effing kiddding me. I had been told expect snow. I had 17 hours of sleet. Its sleet so hard...people take care of your health..wife just told me screech died. wife..told me Dustin died... Sad day. Nothing about the guy himself but I couldn't stand Screech...very annoying. Much like the D-bag Urkel character. Dustin had stage 4 cancer. Probably better off he passed because the rest of his like would have been hell... 28F / mod-hvy snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shenanagins1091 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: "Little bit further inland..." What's 100 mile further north among friends? There wasn't a single model that had the mix line anywhere above 195 in nj. And it went 75 miles north of 195. Massive bust in central jersey no beating around the bush. It played out as expected in most places like I said. Don't really care about CNJ, only really look at PA, SNJ and DE since those are where my friends and family are. Cannot really comment on CNJ sorry. I did tune into the local channels and alot of them just didn't really mention the mixing anywhere except the shore. There's a feel to weather forecasting, it's not all pretty maps. NWS erroneously called for up to 12" in spots in SNJ and all but guaranteed a foot at a minimum in alot of SE PA. Never bought in, didn't buy in to the storm that wasn't before Christmas either. People will never learn either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 It’s done..total 4 inches..forecast 10-14. tell me you groupies how a weather forecast can be so wrong with out waving your xxxxx in a stupid region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, Shenanagins1091 said: It played out as expected in most places like I said. Don't really care about CNJ, only really look at PA, SNJ and DE since those are where my friends and family are. Cannot really comment on CNJ sorry. I did tune into the local channels and alot of them just didn't really mention the mixing anywhere except the shore. There's a feel to weather forecasting, it's not all pretty maps. NWS erroneously called for up to 12" in spots in SNJ and all but guaranteed a foot at a minimum in alot of SE PA. Never bought in, didn't buy in to the storm that wasn't before Christmas either. People will never learn either! Obviously you got snow .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 curious, what is the record for total accumulation of snow on the ground at any given time for the Lehigh Valley.? We stand to have 4 feet of snow in Macungie on the ground by next Monday at this rate. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Charming discussion. I feel I should chime in here. No forecaster--professional or amateur, would've predicted some of the totals we've seen today with this storm. Often, in complex setups that bust, we can look back and go, "ah, well really the signal was there in the form of {these models/the basic physics/some meteo concept}. None of that applied here. The models were unanimous: lots of snow. Maybe some mixing. Not tons. Not super far N. The physics backed that up--cold air mass in place. This afternoon's afd mentioned that the warm air was actually due to air coming in from the ORIGINAL low, e.g. over Ohio. Frankly none of us were paying attention to that, and neither were the models, or anyone else. But that isn't necessarily a fault. In cases where one model say snowtopia and the other says "oops all sleet!", you can castigate mets who go the weenie route. The thing with Miller B's is, we do have all these axioms...dry slot here, don't trust this, someone's getting shafted. That *isn't* actual meteo. That's how you justify to yourself why you feel cursed. Miller A and B storms are, scientifically, OBJECTIVELY, the Philly area's best chance for sig snow. The analogy of a car engine is correct: for many reasons, to get a good snow here, conditions need to align quite well. And with climate change, as we have seen, those opportunities are dropping. As I said a few days ago, I strongly believe climate change is affecting model performances for these events. If you can't correctly model incoming and outgoing radiant flux, you're going to screw up a lot of your secondary calculations. Weather models depend on, well, certain assumptions about our climate. If those assumptions are now even slightly off, we all know well enough how that translates via the butterfly effect (*cough 180 hour forecasts cough*). In 2009/2010, Miller B storms were what gave us those historic incredible snow totals. In 2016, a miller A hammered us. WE ARE NOT WRONG in expecting major Nor' Easters to produce snow for most of us, and it is NOT bad forecasting if that doesn't pan out. On average, if you assume big snow totals out of a miller B with arctic air in place, you will be right more than wrong. Forecasting is an art not just a science. Figuring out the low position down to the mile at a given hour in advance is very hard. Models do fairly well...within 10-20 miles. The problem here wasn't the coastal low's placement, it was warm air from the original low. Case and point, I, in CC phl, had to scrape 2" of sleet off my car today below the snow. That is about 6" of a 10:1 ratio snow, that we got 2" of instead. That'll do it. Now, here's another thing to realize. Snow is going away long term, for us due to climate change. Waive goodbye. So instead of feeling sad cause you didn't get 2 feet, be happy this isn't 2020 where we couldn't get an inch....heck, it's been 3 years since we had a significant storm that didn't TOTALLY bust (2018). As the planet warms, our local climate does too on average. We aren't gonna see the end of snow any time soon, but over time, average yearly snowfall around here will drop. We've already been seeing it to a degree. Shorter cold periods, 70s heatwaves in December. Less sustained cold. More mixed precip events perhaps (not sure there's a study on that but would be unsurprised if that finding held up). You tell me.... look back on your time in Philly and tell me winter today feels like it did 20, 30, 40 years ago (for those who were around here then). Yeah you can cherry pick a good year here or there, I mean on average. Is it any wonder then, that we bust so often, and miss out so often? We are in a La Nina this year as well. We were not expecting much in terms of snow. We've had 2 fairly-decent storms. We may see a couple more in Feb alone if we are lucky. We're doing quite well, relative to what a La Nina can do for us. I for one, am happy--I had an extra unplanned day off from work, I went for a walk and enjoyed the snow we DID get, and just appreciated the return of a feeling of winter and the happiness I saw on so many people's faces today (at least those that weren't driving). So instead of complaining things didn't work out exactly as planned, STOP. Sit. Breathe. Appreciate that we got some snow, that we have technology that remotely lets us predict the freaking future, and will probably still get a bit more tomorrow. You're (probably) not going to die tomorrow...there will be MORE snow events to freak out over (and be disappointed by). If you truly want to see amazing snow without having to get everything perfect...do what professional chasers do...GO to IT. Figure out where it's gonna snow crazily, book a trip, and go there. And finally, to those who DID get snow, don't be an ahole. Don't rub it in people's faces, don't say "I don't care about so and so region"...do you know how that makes people feel? Think about it a sec will ya? Angry. Sad. Upset. Stop it. Stop throwing out insensitive crap into the universe: it very, very clearly sucks enough these days as it is...so please, practice some freaking decency and kindness to others, and learn some empathy. We are all on this planet together, and most in this forum are quite close, at that. End rant. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 Nah..this storm ranks up in busted forecAst in my book..suck your snow up north. plow drivers in my street are pissed.. epic bust. really bad snow forecast south of rt 30 in Pennsylvania. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Animal said: Nah..this storm ranks up in busted forecAst in my book..suck your snow up north. plow drivers in my street are pissed.. epic bust. really bad snow forecast south of rt 30 in Pennsylvania. Cool. Go design a better model then and give us your best accurate forecast for the next one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: Cool. Go design a better model then and give us your best accurate forecast for the next one. Fu ..obviously u are a chipmunk in a field of kangaroos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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