WeatherMonger Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, luckyweather said: everything he “models” is long range so my money is on teleconnections a la beiring sea rule or lezak recurring cycle or an “all blend” of both making “Brian’s proprietary model” copyright 2021 ps no diss Brian, while your maps are vague with farmers almanac levels of leaving yourself open to being accurate no matter what happens you have had some ringer level hits this season That was my initial impression as well, mentioned them in one of the other threads as well. I think there is a little credence to all of them in their own rite, but to call a theory a model is a bit much. I'll end it at that as I've come to acknowledge they're(other theories) not well received here for scientific purposes. No issue with that either, I just love to be prepared for what lies ahead regardless the means, and morseo use the greater knowledge of everyone involved to keep friends and family safe days in advance. For all I know he was Musk or Bezos and had supercomputers with an alias to keep it on the downlow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 With all the snow just north of me, it looks like I'll be going into this cold snap with close to no snow on the ground. I wonder how hard it would be to find the lowest recorded temperature with <1" of snow on the ground at a given observing site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 hours ago, fluoronium said: With all the snow just north of me, it looks like I'll be going into this cold snap with close to no snow on the ground. I wonder how hard it would be to find the lowest recorded temperature with <1" of snow on the ground at a given observing site. February 1996 redux incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 hours ago, fluoronium said: With all the snow just north of me, it looks like I'll be going into this cold snap with close to no snow on the ground. I wonder how hard it would be to find the lowest recorded temperature with <1" of snow on the ground at a given observing site. I believe hoosier has posted stats before, and it's way more common than you would think to have no snow or just a trace on the ground with temperatures below 0, especially away from the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I believe hoosier has posted stats before, and it's way more common than you would think to have no snow or just a trace on the ground with temperatures below 0, especially away from the Great Lakes. The mammoth artic blast Christmas December '83 is an excellent example, in SE Ohio in Athens Co we went below zero for 3 days down to -13F w/o a flake of snow, then 2 days later the very next spec of precip was..... ....wait for it, ....rain! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 I edited the title to change the dates to Feb 7-12, as there is growing consensus of a prolonged cold snap. IMO, how extreme on any given day is still TBD. 6z GFS still shows significant cold temps here...and that's even before the true cold drops down around Days 7-9. Seems like more of a radiator set-up overall, where nights are extremely cold but it warms up (relatively speaking) during the day because the airmass itself is not brutal...though still colder than normal. It's like the freezer keep regenerating, with all of the snow cover and consistent high pressure in a colder-than-normal airmass. It shows 8 consecutive days of subzero low temps here, with some days not getting much above 0...not easy to do this time of year. Really an amazing GFS run for prolonged arctic cold, verbatim...noting the usual op run caveats further out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 eurythmics going on the shelf for a while 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: I edited the title to change the dates to Feb 7-12, as there is growing consensus of a prolonged cold snap. IMO, how extreme on any given day is still TBD. 6z GFS still shows significant cold temps here...and that's even before the true cold drops down around Days 7-9. Seems like more of a radiator set-up overall, where nights are extremely cold but it warms up (relatively speaking) during the day because the airmass itself is not brutal...though still colder than normal. It's like the freezer keep regenerating, with all of the snow cover and consistent high pressure in a colder-than-normal airmass. It shows 8 consecutive days of subzero low temps here, with some days not getting much above 0...not easy to do this time of year. Really an amazing GFS run for prolonged arctic cold, verbatim...noting the usual op run caveats further out in time. Shouldn't you edit the dates to Feb 5-12 ? I think the arctic air arrives in some areas on the 5th ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Snownado said: Shouldn't you edit the dates to Feb 5-12 ? I think the arctic air arrives in some areas on the 5th ? Sure, why not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Verbatim, the 12z GFS has subzero or single digit temps out to 240+ with 20-24" of snow depth for N IL/S WI/E IA. You don't get any more "winter" than that. Ballin' 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Verbatim, the 12z GFS has subzero or single digit temps out to 240+ with 20-24" of snow depth for N IL/S WI/E IA. You don't get any more "winter" than that. Ballin' doesn’t meet beavis criteria.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenwald Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 It looks like the Euro backed off the initial blast and strengthened the second round from Wednesday into Friday. Remnants hanging around still @240. Para has been awol since 06z Tue but seems to be trickling in now @12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: doesn’t meet beavis criteria. . Ha. Now that there is extensive snow cover, I'd rather put all of our chips in on the cold. But if the choices are "cold with snow" or "extreme cold with not as much snow"...can't go wrong wither way. Nice 1060 high in MT at Day 8-9 on the 12z GFS; the Euro showed something similar yesterday. I'm sure there are maps showing this data...but I don't think the lower 48 has ever had a pressure this high in February in recorded history. Fun times ahead... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Ha. Now that there is extensive snow cover, I'd rather put all of our chips in on the cold. But if the choices are "cold with snow" or "extreme cold with not as much snow"...can't go wrong wither way. Nice 1060 high in MT at Day 8-9 on the 12z GFS; the Euro showed something similar yesterday. I'm sure there are maps showing this data...but I don't think the lower 48 has ever had a pressure this high in February in recorded history. Fun times ahead... Correct! Looks like it's 1058.5 mb 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 the second blast of cold air definitely looks stronger. Maybe getting a reprieve into the teens on Tuesday or Wednesday before it hits. All in all this is looking like a 10 day stretch of much below normal temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The latest models show the arctic cold parking over the northern US for at least ten days. That would be impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: The latest models show the arctic cold parking over the northern US for at least ten days. That would be impressive. Would be a good idea to have the faucet trickling so to prevent the pipes from freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 in the span of 3 EURO runs CLE has gone from below 0 tuesday morning to near 33 right when the precip moves in, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 You know, with long range showing prolonged arctic cold, this could very well give 1912 a run for it's money (12 days of highs at 9F or below). Not saying that it's going to happen but it might. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 How does this arctic outbreak compare to Dec 2017/Jan 2018 ? Indy had 12 straight days of 20 or below and 12 days of 6 degrees or lower in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenwald Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 12z Euro @240 is showing some really abnormal cold still hanging around for Saturday morning. I really don't see that happening. The short term has regressed back to the plains for the most part. Monday morning in my area was forecast to be -12F, now its up to 14F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 21 hours ago, WeatherMonger said: Can you post some more about your model? What is it and how do you ingest data and such? Couldn't imagine the specs of a computer to accomplish such a feat at home. I recall Skilling used to state he had an inhouse RPM model, similar? I've been a lurker during my first umpteen years here and have not followed along with every system thread since then, until this year(Winter season). May have missed it, but I'm curious whether to add more weight to your postings or if it is a bit of BS. Not calling you out on it, just want a bit more info if you could. I don't get into my methods. I keep that close. I'm not trying to BS anyone, just having fun with this hobby. Have been doing it off and on over the years. I don't charge anything for forecasts like some out there do. I try to be honest and if I blow it, I own up to it. Whatever you wish to think about what I do, or how good or bad I am at it, I'll leave up to you. Thanks for your interest, and if the forum wishes me to stop doing this, I'll respect their wishes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 This map is probably overdone with the cold...but I think it's reasonable to expect some -10 to -15 temps in N IL on Sunday morning 2/7. Chicago's record low is -10 set in 1875...could be threatened. Rockford's record low is -16 set in 1972...that could be in jeopardy too. And some nice -52F temps in N Manitoba. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 hours ago, Brian D said: I don't get into my methods. I keep that close. I'm not trying to BS anyone, just having fun with this hobby. Have been doing it off and on over the years. I don't charge anything for forecasts like some out there do. I try to be honest and if I blow it, I own up to it. Whatever you wish to think about what I do, or how good or bad I am at it, I'll leave up to you. Thanks for your interest, and if the forum wishes me to stop doing this, I'll respect their wishes. No worries man, up until your 3rd-5th thread and seeing you mention it in a post on this thread I haven't seen your other predictions and how they have panned out. You said "your model" so I figured you had somehow delved a way to incorporate an algorythm/program to actually forecast. We never know who we are really interacting with on the internet, you could have the wealth of Bezos for all I know and have your own weather predictor I like your terminology in this post a lot better in using "method" rather than model, in weather forecasting the difference in definition is vastly different. Good luck with it, and if it works it works. If not, try and try again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenwald Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z Euro is still going all out @240. Negative temps all the way down to South Carolina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Something to shoot for? Oofta! 2-3 weeks of nasty cold blasts coming up is a rough month. Was in the service in Jersey back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 looking like we could have 10 straight days with the temps staying below 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 And here come the headlines. From NWS Grand Forks...wind chill watch in effect for 5 consecutive days. Wind Chill Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 244 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-072045- /O.CON.KFGF.WC.A.0001.210206T0000Z-210209T1800Z/ West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena, Menahga, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, Barrett, Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, Wahpeton, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin 244 PM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 ...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as low as 45 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northwest and west central Minnesota and northeast and southeast North Dakota. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 18z GFS just casually going with -25 air temps for southern ohio lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Is there any end in sight ? Are we headed to the next ice age ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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