StormfanaticInd Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Painful 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I don't expect a lot of melting. The ground is frozen below the snow and the existing snow is dense. We had three inches of snow in Dayton Saturday night...and it rained all day Sunday with mid 30 temps....and still have a very compact inch or two....with an inch or two of fluff now on top. When the ground is not frozen its much easier for snow to melt....when the ground is frozen....not so much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Painful What's incredible with some of the arctic blasts weve seen lately, 2019, 2015, 2014… is the painful wind chills would look ungodly back in the days of the old wind chill formula. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Jim Martin said: That's pretty remarkable. Given that this snowpack will likely survive for most of us, it could certainly get very very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 31 minutes ago, Gino27 said: That's pretty remarkable. Given that this snowpack will likely survive for most of us, it could certainly get very very cold. For the record, here are the 1985 and 1994 time periods in reference for Columbus. 1985 High/Low/Mean/Departure/Precipitation/Snowfall/Snow Depth 18 33 20 27 1 0.2 3.1 6 19 27 -5 11 -15 Trace Trace 9 20 -5 -19 -12 -38 Trace 0.2 8 21 11 -16 -3 -29 0.02 0.6 8 22 21 11 16 -10 0.02 0.7 8 1994 16 15 -8 4 -22 0.12 1.2 2 17 28 0 14 -12 0.46 6.6 8 18 0 -17 -9 -35 0 0 9 19 -1 -22 -12 -38 0.07 1.1 9 20 15 -9 3 -23 0.04 0.4 9 21 16 -15 1 -25 Trace Trace 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 36 minutes ago, Gino27 said: That's pretty remarkable. Given that this snowpack will likely survive for most of us, it could certainly get very very cold. With the magnitude of the arctic blast coming, fresh snowpack, stale snowpack, or no snowpack will likely be a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I like cold but please no 2014 repeat.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Going to be a bad time being an outdoor essential worker coming up 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I'm a big fan of weather extremes, so I don't mind a few days of anomalous cold, but I just did a quick scroll through the GFS and I am no fan of the length of the arctic air hanging over the Lakes region. I mean come on, two solid weeks of the surface temps not getting over 20°? I really got depressed when I saw that the Euro is in agreement. And hard telling how long past the end of their runs? This is going to be the type of weather that only Beavis can love. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 It continues to look brutal for the long haul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 44 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: It continues to look brutal for the long haul. How is it even possible for Indy to not hit 50 in Jan even though temps were like 3 above normal ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 ride it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 It's the ICON!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 hours ago, IWXwx said: I'm a big fan of weather extremes, so I don't mind a few days of anomalous cold, but I just did a quick scroll through the GFS and I am no fan of the length of the arctic air hanging over the Lakes region. I mean come on, two solid weeks of the surface temps not getting over 20°? I really got depressed when I saw that the Euro is in agreement. And hard telling how long past the end of their runs? This is going to be the type of weather that only Beavis can love. The overall trend on the models (not necessarily each individual model) over the past 12-24 hours seems to be: (1) Delay the core of the arctic outbreak a bit (2) Initial shot of extreme cold focused a bit further north and west, even as the airmass/source region itself is still brutally cold (3) Prolong the residence time of the cold air around here, even if not as extreme on a given day. With that said, the various models are still not in agreement and are flipping a bit from run to run...possibly due to a potentially more organized storm system prior to the cold air dump. 12z GFS at hour 99 shows temps as low as -53 in NW Manitoba. Here's 12z Sunday morning: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 Other models besides the GFS are getting on board...although of course it's still a ways out. 12z GEM and UKMET are showing widespread -20s and even a few -30s in IA...with -20s poking into IL. Uncle Ukie needs a new scale... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Looks overdone if very little snow is included with that outbreak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 EURO doesn't even get CLE below 0 for a low now, typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 12z Euro has this in 2 waves now. The initial cold shot from Friday through Tuesday and then a reinforcement of cold air in the middle of next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenwald Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Yeah the Euro ends its run with a big cold wave pretty far south. GFS shows potent cold @384 as well. Wind chills of -15 in the texas panhandle. It would seem it's here for awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, Greenwald said: Yeah the Euro ends its run with a big cold wave pretty far south. GFS shows potent cold @384 as well. Wind chills of -15 in the texas panhandle. It would seem it's here for awhile. I mean at some point the higher sun angle and longer days have to put a stop to the cold, right ? Or is it just going to go on forever ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenwald Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 You would think so. Record low for Fort Wayne in the northeast part of Indiana is -19F for February and -10F for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I mean at some point the higher sun angle and longer days have to put a stop to the cold, right ? Or is it just going to go on forever ?Of course we will have spring and summer, but sensible weather is just going to get weirder and I think our idea of the traditional neat seasons is over. ice albedo feedback cycle keeps getting later and later, this year was the latest on record. our seasons are the product of a complex system and when the system parameters change of course the system output changes. Judah C says the new normal is go big or go home as the (global climate) system tries to rebalance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 hours ago, madwx said: 12z Euro has this in 2 waves now. The initial cold shot from Friday through Tuesday and then a reinforcement of cold air in the middle of next week Yeah, 12z Euro is a "delayed but not denied" situation. Usual caveats on a Day 10 op map...but you don't see this every day. 1058 mb high in MT, with temps 60F below normal. Not bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 11 hours ago, MIstorm97 said: Going to be a bad time being an outdoor essential worker coming up In my mind, it's just cold. If you get coated in water and it turns to ice, you actually feel warmer. COVID is the worst thing to deal with. I spend more time now with a respirator on than I have in the last 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I think this is going last a bit longer overall now that I've looked more at my model, especially my way. A little reprieve in there but overall, pretty much the dead of winter. I did mention how really cold Feb looked in my forecast for the upcoming month . Looks like it'll pan out with big storms afterward like Valentines Day that I have noted. We shall see about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 12 hours ago, MIstorm97 said: Going to be a bad time being an outdoor essential worker coming up Yeah Monday don't look fun at all for me. Good thing the weekend will be our coldest period as our company policy doesn't end outdoor work until -10F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 56 minutes ago, Brian D said: I think this is going last a bit longer overall now that I've looked more at my model, especially my way. A little reprieve in there but overall, pretty much the dead of winter. I did mention how really cold Feb looked in my forecast for the upcoming month . Looks like it'll pan out with big storms afterward like Valentines Day that I have noted. We shall see about that. Can you post some more about your model? What is it and how do you ingest data and such? Couldn't imagine the specs of a computer to accomplish such a feat at home. I recall Skilling used to state he had an inhouse RPM model, similar? I've been a lurker during my first umpteen years here and have not followed along with every system thread since then, until this year(Winter season). May have missed it, but I'm curious whether to add more weight to your postings or if it is a bit of BS. Not calling you out on it, just want a bit more info if you could. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Can you post some more about your model? everything he “models” is long range so my money is on teleconnections a la beiring sea rule or lezak recurring cycle or an “all blend” of both making “Brian’s proprietary model” copyright 2021 ps no diss Brian, while your maps are vague with farmers almanac levels of leaving yourself open to being accurate no matter what happens you have had some ringer level hits this season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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