beavis1729 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Time for a separate thread...I'll start with madwx's comments from the long range thread, and a Day 7 Euro prog. The cold arrives sooner on the GFS, and is more intense. ---------- Euro in agreement with cold starting Friday after the EOW system with the core of the coldest temps on Sunday thru Tuesday with some slight moderation after that. Some relevant record mins and low maxes for the period at MSN 5 -21 1936 -8 1895 6 -19 1977 -5 1875 7 -21 1875 -2 1893 8 -22 1899 -7 1875 9 -28 1899 -15 1899 10 -25 1899 -5 1899 11 -22 1885 -6 1899 Notable that all those 1899 dates are during the great Arctic outbreak where ice floes came out of the mouth of the Mississippi and New Orleans got down to their all time record of 6. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Euro 12z never let up thru day 10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 KIND says two of the top analogs for this weekend are 1-18-94 and 1-20-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Still could change but this airmass looks pretty potent. I know some here aren't fans of extreme cold, but from my point of view, I wish we could've brought this in during January for maximum effect. Not that it can't get extremely cold in February (especially early in the month) but generally speaking the coldest records are in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Welp. Looks like I may have to put on a coat when I head out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I'm all aboard this threat. Will probably have to extend the timing of this as the cold looks to extend until the end of next week. Long range GFS is probably overdone but definitely seeing the possibility of some below zero high temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Hoosier said: Still could change but this airmass looks pretty potent. I know some here aren't fans of extreme cold, but from my point of view, I wish we could've brought this in during January for maximum effect. Not that it can't get extremely cold in February (especially early in the month) but generally speaking the coldest records are in January, especially outside of the northern tier. On the other hand, in February it is a bit easier to break records because it doens't usually have these mega cold outbreaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Here's that part of the IND afd Several of the CIPS analogs for late weekend align with some notable dates. Of particular interest are favored analogs for 1/20/1985 and 1/18/1994...two dates/events responsible for some of the coldest temperatures in recorded history in our area. Those events though also had the aid of a deep snowpack and a cold airmass that had recycled repeatedly in the 7-10 days prior to those dates. Want to stress that we are not anticipating record cold as suggested above. But those dates being highlighted drive home the idea and increase the confidence that this is an anomalous level of cold that will be impacting the region by Sunday and Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 ready 2 vortex 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Indy probably wont even have a snowpack by the time next weekend rolls around. Going to be hard to get below 0 with a bare ground ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, Baum said: Welp. Looks like I may have to put on a coat when I head out. My favorite part of winter is watching the fat guys who refuse to not wear shorts frantically run across a parking lot. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Still could change but this airmass looks pretty potent. I know some here aren't fans of extreme cold, but from my point of view, I wish we could've brought this in during January for maximum effect. Not that it can't get extremely cold in February (especially early in the month) but generally speaking the coldest records are in January. Something something sun angle yadda yadda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Why is it always guys who wear shorts in the cold ? Have you noticed that guys seem to do this more than women ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 KLOT The main story though looks to be the arrival of a true arctic airmass over the weekend. Timing differences in the global guidance remain, but the signal in the deterministic and ensemble output for a period of significant cold is impressive at this range. The heart of the arctic airmass may not arrive until later on Sunday into monday, but lingering breezes and high temperatures that may not rise much above 0 result in wind chill values during the overnight periods that may fall below -20 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Snownado said: Why is it always guys who wear shorts in the cold ? Have you noticed that guys seem to do this more than women ? Because guys are dumb. Although have seen women wearing skirts/dresses outside while it's in the single digits, but it's less common and they're usually (a) not outside for very long and (b) heavily bundled up top. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Snownado said: Indy probably wont even have a snowpack by the time next weekend rolls around. Going to be hard to get below 0 with a bare ground ! I think as progged, this airmass would be able to get below zero at IND even without snowcover. It is hard to get way below zero without snowcover though (say colder than -10F), especially around 40N. We'll see though... maybe IND will have a snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Hoosier said: I think as progged, this airmass would be able to get below zero at IND even without snowcover. It is hard to get way below zero without snowcover though (say colder than -10F), especially around 40N. We'll see though... maybe IND will have a snow pack. I think it was early January 2019, we had an Arctic outbreak where it was in the single digits either side of zero with bare ground. Puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I think as progged, this airmass would be able to get below zero at IND even without snowcover. It is hard to get way below zero without snowcover though (say colder than -10F), especially around 40N. We'll see though... maybe IND will have a snow pack. God I hope there's a snowpack, because it would suck to have days of freezing cold with a bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Current battle: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Brief but potent. Should be the coldest of the season for me. -17F was from the last blast (colder -20's west of me). -20's with this one, again, and more widespread. Many days of -10 to -25 lows with 5 to -5 highs is pretty rough from past winters. This will be a short one. Like them like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 31 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I think as progged, this airmass would be able to get below zero at IND even without snowcover. It is hard to get way below zero without snowcover though (say colder than -10F), especially around 40N. We'll see though... maybe IND will have a snow pack. Usually if its going to get this cold it finds a way to snow here in Indy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Bare ground and frigid temps. Can’t beat that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 18z GFS doubles down. Not expecting it to verify this cold, but crazy to see this on a day 6-7 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: 18z GFS doubles down. Not expecting it to verify this cold, but crazy to see this on a day 6-7 map. The Sunday 2/7 daytime temperature map brings back memories of 1/30/2019. I remember the GFS having lows in the -30s in Chicago, even at short lead times. Obviously ended up being overdone, though did have -30 readings in northwest/north central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I think it'll end up 10 or 15 degrees warmer but a good chance to break some record lows. Super Bowl Sunday is gonna be cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 This sucks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 19 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The Sunday 2/7 daytime temperature map brings back memories of 1/30/2019. I remember the GFS having lows in the -30s in Chicago, even at short lead times. Obviously ended up being overdone, though did have -30 readings in northwest/north central IL. Yep. The source region for this airmass is modeled to be brutally cold on the GFS - see this wind chill map for hour 114. At the very top of this image in far NW Manitoba (around 59N), the color is off the scale...but the point WCs are as low as -89F. It just keeps getting colder up there on each subsequent GFS run. Yesterday, the modeled WCs in that area were -75F to -80F. I haven't seen this type of cold in Canada in a very long time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Looks like we could string together a few days of below zero highs here. Will definitely need a couple inches of refresher to maximize potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Going into potentially historic cold again right after 38 and rain to melt the 3 inches of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Some of these GFS runs (with some support of GEFS) just keep reloading the cold over and over again through the middle of the month; very Feb 2019 style. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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