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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


MAG5035
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14 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Here in Carlisle at 11:00am the snow has ended.  Looks like there's going to be a LONG lull.  2.1" storm total.  Temp back up to 24.4 degrees.  I had the heaviest rates of the storm about 20 minutes ago right before some sleet began to mix in.  I'm not giving up totally but I think the HRRR is going to be right.  (Sorry for sounding so down!  Not usually like this but all 3 big storms this winter I underperformed by a good margin.)  I know it will snow again, maybe this Monday?

Hrr goes to 18hrs, and many models have light snow well into tomorrow morning.  While best accums may be over for some, there is more snow to come.  Consider it mood flakes.  

BTW, your concern was my concern from days ago when N and W were showing big totals, greater than the LSV.  This storm has a progressive look to it (thinking trough axis)t, and not a diggy one (that is what you needed for the coastal numbers to verify.  Its more of a wave to weak coastal (and that's not bad at all)....but is just not good for everyone.  I think conshohocken folks approve of this event by a 14" margin.  

It seems like a general 4-8 is reasonable (NW to SE gradient), so I'm not complaining a bit...even as i hear pingers mixing in w/ my 4".  If I can eek 2 more inches out through tomorrow morning....thats fantastic.  

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Just now, Superstorm said:


Same here. I just want to get to 5” to meet WSW.


.

That would be nice - my 2 personal objectives were to reach my range, which I set to exceed my seasonal average, which I did. Right now I'm at 31.5" for the season, which is a HUGE win during a Nina. I went into the winter, and I shared this with Daxx, expecting 15-20" for the season. (he was more bullish than I was) So, anything from here on out is gravy. 

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11 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Depends what model you go with, but if hrrr is right, this thing is mostly over.

 

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Hrr goes to 18hrs, and many models have light snow well into tomorrow morning.  While best accums may be over for some, there is more snow to come.  Consider it mood flakes.  

BTW, your concern was my concern from days ago when N and W were showing big totals, greater than the LSV.  This storm has a progressive look to it (thinking trough axis)t, and not a diggy one (that is what you needed for the coastal numbers to verify.  Its more of a wave to weak coastal (and that's not bad at all)....but is just not good for everyone.  I think conshohocken folks approve of this event by a 14" margin.  

It seems like a general 4-8 is reasonable (NW to SE gradient), so I'm not complaining a bit...even as i hear pingers mixing in w/ my 4".  If I can eek 2 more inches out through tomorrow morning....thats fantastic.  

Well folks - going by these 2 posts, it's pretty clear who posts positively and who posts negatively. :)

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Horst (2 minutes ago) on more snow prospects:

The back edge is coming fast! A classic warm advection event that plays out in ~6 hours...and so the worst will soon be behind us. As mentioned earlier, a trailing upper-level system may yield a bit of "bonus" light snow tonight into Friday AM. But we'll see about that...

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12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Well folks - going by these 2 posts, it's pretty clear who posts positively and who posts negatively. :)

lol I’m just talking about up here wise, there may be more to come elsewhere. I can’t be negative about anything this winter, I could not see another flake rest of the year and it’d be the best I ever remembered.

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1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

lol I’m just talking about up here wise, there may be more to come elsewhere. I can’t be negative about anything this winter, I could not see another flake rest of the year and it’d be the best I ever remembered.

I was having fun. You've done well and it's been LONG overdue up your way. 

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10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

True that. And that PHL post of mine was WAY off - 2 hours ago the airport was at 0.6" :rolleyes:

was the conshohocken 14" verified?

Thats a small distance for such a HUGE qpf disparity.  

Looking at 511 cams, I think I answered my own question.  They've got snow, but I Dont see 14" in those cams....but if you add any 3 together then ok...maybe I'll bite.

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I know some folks to the far NW are disappointed, but this was a fun storm.  One of the biggest factors for me with storm enjoyment is start time--nothing better than getting up at 5 AM and brewing some coffee just as the sidewalks are dusting up, and knowing you have nowhere to be.  

We ended up with about 5.3" here before the sleet took over, and it's coming down hard.

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13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

was the conshohocken 14" verified?

Thats a small distance for such a HUGE qpf disparity.  

Looking at 511 cams, I think I answered my own question.  They've got snow, but I Dont see 14" in those cams....but if you add any 3 together then ok...maybe I'll bite.

 

11 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


I have only seen reports of snow approaching 9”. I have not seen any official 14” reports from that area.


.

Highest officially reported amount to Mt. Holly that I just checked was a 9.5". Some serious weenie reporting going on in the Philly thread, or a VERY localized dump in that area. I should have known better than to post weenie info - I take people for face value and assume they're reporting factual totals. My apologies. 

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Highest officially reported amount to Mt. Holly that I just checked was a 9.5". Some serious weenie reporting going on in the Philly thread, or a VERY localized dump in that area. I should have known better than to post weenie info - I take people for face value and assume they're reporting factual totals. My apologies. 

No biggie at all.  Just wondered if it was legit because nothing else close has been reported.  It's still a respectable number at 9.5".  

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Left for work at the store in Carlisle and made it to the exit before mine and met this blocking most of the north bound lane (there was another two tractor trailers behind them off on either side) and then got the call that the store was closing and to head home. Of course :p This was around 11:00am

150144166_10102551347187066_4886035576148329388_n.jpg

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4 minutes ago, paweather said:

I am still holding out hope that Part 2 overperforms. A nice little lull for 6 hours or so LOL. Dang 12K NAM don't let me down. 

If you don't start to see radar backfilling by 18z time, I've got some crow marinating. 

Just waiting to see if I have to eat the crow, or drink the marinade, and throw the crow in the garbage....:lol:

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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

 

If you don't start to see radar backfilling by 18z time, I've got some crow marinating. 

Just waiting to see if I have to eat the crow, or drink the marinade, and throw the crow in the garbage....:lol:

I'll be over. I guess onto the next one. Nice snow morning but I'm not satisfied. Too quick, Too Progressive and to think there are how many low's down in the GOM. I guess blame it on NINA. 

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

-NAO check, +PNA check, NS/SS Phase uncheck. I like we finally had a SS primary steamer and what seemed like a Miller A BUT we cannot win. I am ready for a Clipper we haven't had one in 2 years now. 

Oh no...I hate clippers. So many ways to fail with those. We've had some notable exceptions for sure, but I never count on much of anything from them. They really should be renamed "Mountain Shredders". 

One positive is they are high ratio events. You can score 3-4" of fluff from like .10" of QPF. So there's that. 

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