paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 LOL Bubbler: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 If one looks at 12z NAM, you can see a warm layer "trapped" and thats why the sleet is likely happening. Good news is that as coastal takes shape, that layer quickly gets scoured out and column cools, so IMO sleet may be around but I think by afternoon, its back to a snow event (this is based of NAM which does pretty well wrt temp profiles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3" down, have now passed the 30" mark for the season. SN continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: If one looks at 12z NAM, you can see a warm layer "trapped" and thats why the sleet is likely happening. Good news is that as coastal takes shape, that layer quickly gets scoured out and column cools, so IMO sleet may be around but I think by afternoon, its back to a snow event (this is based of NAM which does pretty well wrt temp profiles). Your right and as I said OBS in VA that turned to sleet some are already back to SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, FHS said: Coronal hole faces Earth Thursday, 18 February 2021 - 13:19 UTC It's that time of the solar cycle again where coronal holes become more apparent at lower latitudes! Less than a week ago we already had a similar coronal hole facing our planet. The solar wind stream from that coronal hole caused active geomagnetic conditions on Tuesday. Right now we have yet another northward extension of the southern hemisphere polar coronal hole facing our planet today. Does this mean this is the last day on Earth? I just want to know so I can have my favorite meal and drink before it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Snow/Sleet mix here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Morning all. Just caught up on the 119 messages that were waiting for me. In Carlisle it is 24.4 degrees with moderate fine snow falling. I've had periods of larger flakes to the point where it was briefly heavy. Not sure when it started but I'm up to 1.7" of snow as of 9:20am. No sleet. Wonder how far north that line goes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Still mod snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said: Morning all. Just caught up on the 119 messages that were waiting for me. In Carlisle it is 24.4 degrees with moderate fine snow falling. I've had periods of larger flakes to the point where it was briefly heavy. Not sure when it started but I'm up to 1.7" of snow as of 9:20am. No sleet. Wonder how far north that line goes? Good morning! I don't think there's a traditional mix line with this event - I have sleet mixing in now, but there are reports of snow (mostly sleet, but some are snowing) well to my south across MD and VA. Some of it might be intensity driven, but it's not all of it. I think nut had a good explanation earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 In West Lancaster still all snow, but looking at CC I do see pockets of sleet.Closing in on 4”.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Sheesh, parts of the Delaware Valley at the 8" mark already - those people gave up 36 hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: In West Lancaster still all snow, but looking at CC I do see pockets of sleet. Closing in on 4”. . I'm at 3.2" here, back to all SN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Interesting, I was on a work call and looked outside and noticed it had that classic mixing look (scattered flakes falling quickly). I looked back five minutes later and it's back to SN/SN+, no mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm at 3.2" here, back to all SN. Not sure we're even at 2" in Harrisburg. I can't tell if its sleeting or very fine snow. I'm going to have to go out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: Interesting, I was on a work call and looked outside and noticed it had that classic mixing look (scattered flakes falling quickly). I looked back five minutes later and it's back to SN/SN+, no mixing. Your area over to parts of the DV really got the goods earlier this morning. You have to be around 5" or more now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Your area over to parts of the DV really got the goods earlier this morning. You have to be around 5" or more now. Sounds like they are pushing 10" in Wayne and over a foot near Conshohocken. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Here in Carlisle at 10:00am the snow has all but stopped. I picked up another 0.2" from my previous report for a storm total of 1.9". Temp holding at 24.4. Boy, I was encouraged by the 6Z and 12Z maps. But, has anyone been watching the HRRR? It gives the overall MDT area a storm total of 4"! Looks like it just spits for hours rest of the day and through the night. Disheartening to say the least. On the other hand, all the bare is covered again and snow is on the trees and it looks very scenic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 some good returns coming up from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, FHS said: im still a 100% believer that a boring sun makes boring winters and convection for parts of are country , I'm minoring in Space Weather and Heliophysics here at Millersville. I agree that the sun is without a doubt a huge driver to even our weather at times through the Global Electric Circuit. An active sun with plenty of solar activity has a higher chance to eject SEPs towards Earth which can interact with our ionosphere, transfer down into the lower atmospheric levels through the GEC.... The sun is important lets just say that haha. Still only light pixie dust falling here, might have around 3-4" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, sauss06 said: Not sure we're even at 2" in Harrisburg. I can't tell if its sleeting or very fine snow. I'm going to have to go out. The snowfall amounts aren't going to be uniform at all, nor is there going to be a gradual increase going south to north or north to south. Banding structure is supporting a wide disparity in accumulations - parts of the Philly area are at 8" already, for example. There are winners and losers scattered throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Mshaffer526 said: Sounds like they are pushing 10" in Wayne and over a foot near Conshohocken. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Keep in mind if you believe the NAM this has just started. Now, I want to believe the NAM but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Not sure we're even at 2" in Harrisburg. I can't tell if its sleeting or very fine snow. I'm going to have to go out. Been sleeting for at least 25 minutes. And looks around 1.75" give or take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, canderson said: Been sleeting for at least 25 minutes. And looks around 1.75" give or take. Must be the river influence. LOL. Mod snow here still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: The snowfall amounts aren't going to be uniform at all, nor is there going to be a gradual increase going south to north or north to south. Banding structure is supporting a wide disparity in accumulations - parts of the Philly area are at 8" already, for example. There are winners and losers scattered throughout. regardless, snow makes me happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Your area over to parts of the DV really got the goods earlier this morning. You have to be around 5" or more now. Just went out to measure, a hair over 5". Parkesburg is closer to 7.5", we *just* missed the beef of that heavier band to our SE earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, sauss06 said: regardless, snow makes me happy Heh, I'm bouncing around today like I did 50 years ago Jon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Mshaffer526 said: Just went out to measure, a hair over 5". Parkesburg is closer to 7.5", we *just* missed the beef of that heavier band to our SE earlier. Thanks for the update - Gap is only what...5 or so miles from Parkesburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Thanks for the update - Gap is only what...5 or so miles from Parkesburg? Yup. Game of inches (and miles!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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