Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Final woof from MA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Trust it or not the Hrrr is very kind to the lsv. Yes, the 0z HRRR gives a solid 5 to 7 inches of snow to the LSV through Friday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I’m going to roll with LWX and project that 8–12” contour hits us bubbler. CTP continues to trim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 RAP loves York and Lancaster Counties 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Mshaffer526 said: RAP loves York and Lancaster Counties That is more what I expected the HRRR map to look like after seeing the sim radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: That is more what I expected the HRRR map to look like after seeing the sim radar. One thing that’s consistent is a narrow strip of higher amounts on the models. It’s 1-2 counties wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Let’s spin the wheel on the NAM to see what it decides to bring soon! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 Got some echoes overhead, just waiting for it to hit the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Let’s spin the wheel on the NAM to see what it decides to bring soon! Scrapes the southeast counties with the high qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Let’s spin the wheel on the NAM to see what it decides to bring soon! NAM is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 NAM is a PA special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: NAM is a PA special. Long round 2 snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: NAM is a PA special. Nam initialized better than hrrr going off the radar. Looked like a quick hit on pivatol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Long round 2 snows Yep. don't know if it will verify but we are closing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Nam initialized better than hrrr going off the radar. Looked like a quick hit on pivatol I think I’m looking at 3k. I’m not really sure which nam to look at or use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 Boy I bet the DC metro folks are loving seeing the 0z NAM and some of the differences between other models this close to game time (||GFS vs GFS and Euro). 3k gives them almost nothing snowy and 12k NAM isn't much better and the 0z HRRR hits them good. My only worry for this region is some sleet mixing in at some point for a little bit in the southern counties. At least none of us are riding THAT edge for this event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I think I’m looking at 3k. I’m not really sure which nam to look at or use What's the modelology handbook say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 12K is the model, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: What's the modelology handbook say? Easy, choose model that shows the most snow for your yard 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I think I’m looking at 3k. I’m not really sure which nam to look at or use That 12k snows into Friday am. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Boy I bet the DC metro folks are loving seeing the 0z NAM and some of the differences between other models this close to game time (||GFS vs GFS and Euro). 3k gives them almost nothing snowy and 12k NAM isn't much better and the 0z HRRR hits them good. My only worry for this region is some sleet mixing in at some point for a little bit in the southern counties. At least none of us are riding THAT edge for this event. To clarify a bit, holy crap the NAM is sleeting on DC. 2.5-3"+ on both the NAMs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Boy I bet the DC metro folks are loving seeing the 0z NAM and some of the differences between other models this close to game time (||GFS vs GFS and Euro). 3k gives them almost nothing snowy and 12k NAM isn't much better and the 0z HRRR hits them good. My only worry for this region is some sleet mixing in at some point for a little bit in the southern counties. At least none of us are riding THAT edge for this event. LWX 9pm update 00Z IAD sounding showed a warm nose of 1.8C at the 809 mb level. This is around 1C warmer than what most of the 18Z models initialized. The 18Z Canadian Regional had the best initialization of the 18Z guidance with a warm nose around 1C with the 00Z NAM now having caught up to the warmer air aloft. Although, there is a lot of dry air at that level which would result in wet-bulb cooling once precip arrives, the trend in the models has been for a faster changeover to mixed precip Thu morning. Will be incorporating more of the 00Z NAM and 18Z Canadian Regional in our update tonight. These two models have verified the best with temps aloft this winter, especially with the mid December 2020 and Feb 10 mixed precip events. There has also been a trend toward a faster exit of the precipitation late Thu night across the region with precip only lingering across southern MD and in the upslope areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That 12k snows into Friday am. Lol CTP forecast is looking good on the 12k NAM. It looks like 5 to 8 when the storm is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: LWX 9pm update 00Z IAD sounding showed a warm nose of 1.8C at the 809 mb level. This is around 1C warmer than what most of the 18Z models initialized. The 18Z Canadian Regional had the best initialization of the 18Z guidance with a warm nose around 1C with the 00Z NAM now having caught up to the warmer air aloft. Although, there is a lot of dry air at that level which would result in wet-bulb cooling once precip arrives, the trend in the models has been for a faster changeover to mixed precip Thu morning. Will be incorporating more of the 00Z NAM and 18Z Canadian Regional in our update tonight. These two models have verified the best with temps aloft this winter, especially with the mid December 2020 and Feb 10 mixed precip events. There has also been a trend toward a faster exit of the precipitation late Thu night across the region with precip only lingering across southern MD and in the upslope areas. That is some good nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: LWX 9pm update 00Z IAD sounding showed a warm nose of 1.8C at the 809 mb level. This is around 1C warmer than what most of the 18Z models initialized. The 18Z Canadian Regional had the best initialization of the 18Z guidance with a warm nose around 1C with the 00Z NAM now having caught up to the warmer air aloft. Although, there is a lot of dry air at that level which would result in wet-bulb cooling once precip arrives, the trend in the models has been for a faster changeover to mixed precip Thu morning. Will be incorporating more of the 00Z NAM and 18Z Canadian Regional in our update tonight. These two models have verified the best with temps aloft this winter, especially with the mid December 2020 and Feb 10 mixed precip events. There has also been a trend toward a faster exit of the precipitation late Thu night across the region with precip only lingering across southern MD and in the upslope areas. Great catch. And the 0z sounding (weather balloon) is hard data too. This was my worry about the southern tier in terms of a getting a warm layer somewhere in between 850-700mb. Yea it will wet bulb down, but more robust WAA there is already being noted. Fortunately for our region I think this has been trending towards minimizing the threat for sleet/mixed (0z NAM didn't have it getting very far across the mason-dixon). But there's still a decent possibility of pingers at some point to consider in likely the bottom tier of LSV counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 21z SREF still targets the LSV with the bullseye! I am riding the old school model train! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 21z SREF still targets the LSV with the bullseye! I am riding the old school model train! I must have hacked this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 Flurries starting here, 25ºF. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Let's go. Mag is starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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