sauss06 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 bring it home blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: A big key to what we're going to see snow wise with this system is what happens right up front late tonight into early tomorrow with that finger of early warm advection snows that develops and where it's placed as that probably will be the best snows ratio wise and could throw a stripe of a few inches right off the bat to whoever gets it.That's really been the name of the game with this system since last week, what it does on the front end... even with it being a much colder system overall than it was looking at that point. At any rate, it seemed like a good bit of guidance today (especially the short term and high res stuff) places this early stuff closer to a JST-UNV-IPT line than say a Cumberland to MDT one and then the main surge of precip fills in the rest where it will probably be heavier overall in the southern tier. This is actually most important for that corridor (JST/UNV/IPT/FIG) because this may be a low end advisory or worse without it in the central counties. I'd wager the folks that gets a good piece of the early stuff and transitions into the main surge without wasting a period of light or non-consequential rates are probably going to be the ones that see the best accumulations for the whole event. And if that actually does end up back as far as that JST-IPT corridor, I'd def be more worried about the implications of eventual mixing in the LSV counties. NAM and related near term guidance is the mixiest still, while generally everything else minimizes the mixing above the mason-dixon line. Still have the same concerns with the 500mb mean trough centered west over the central US as well as the mid-level features west of PA and associated WAA busting 0ºC somewhere in that 850-700 layer in esp the LSV. The trend the last couple days has been a bit of a SE shift in the heavy swath and especially an overall toning down on QPF. I think this is basically a 4-8" for all the regulars in here. Clearfield and Williamsport should eventually at least get to 3-4" by the end of this event. Places like AOO/UNV 5-6" and the best chance of a consistent 6"+ swath likely resides closer to the turnpike. Below the turnpike in the southern tier/LSV has the best QPF for widespread 6"+ but that directly depends on if the mixing happens. If it does, I still think everyone gets 3-4". The upper end of this is probably 10". Great post! I agree... 4 to 8 inches of snow tomorrow is a great call for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I'm standing tall 8-10" lollipops of 12" location not yet determined until I meet this criteria to win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Radar looks great down south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol... sun angle talk on February 18th... It wasn’t a problem in March of 2017, 2018 or 2019... For the record, I do NOT believe this is an issue tomorrow - I was stunned that he mentioned it. Glenn is one of the best around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Mount Holly's writeup also mentioned the sun angle, so it isn't just Glenn. Here's the website I use (both for meteo and other pursuits) plotting solar azimuth for basically any location on earth on any given day (but here linked to Philly): https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/philadelphia. We're up to 38.7 degrees tomorrow at 12:14pm, vs Decem when our angle maxes in the upper 26 degree range. We're heading into the part of the year where the sun angle, day length delta (etc) are all rising rapidly day-to-day. I don't think it matters much for "the thump" but it matters later in the day--so it isn't just cya messaging. They're not wrong. Fun fact: 50 degrees of azimuth is about what you need for UV-B light to reach the surface, and thus, for your skin to produce vitamin D. That's a post from the Philly thread - the pros at Mt. Holly are discussing sun angle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Anyway - if we're thumping, sun angle isn't a worry. If it's light snow and 30 degrees at midday, it becomes a concern. On to the Euro... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Sun angle is an issue if it is light snow. That won’t accumulate well. But moderate to heavy will accumulate in April sun. .EDIT: Itstrainingtime beat me to the punch!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I had a sun angle talk yesterday with a bunch of Texans. Ironically I was explaining how it can work i their favor and help clear the roads today despite marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Euro even drier - looks like .25" - .50" QPF through tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Euro even drier - looks like .25" - .50" QPF through tomorrow evening Our lot may be something a bit less than some of us hoped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Riding my 3-6"...we'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: For the record, I do NOT believe this is an issue tomorrow - I was stunned that he mentioned it. Glenn is one of the best around. Yes he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I’m done with DR. No. Time to ride the Nam and HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 18 minutes ago, anotherman said: I'm like 10 miles from less than 4 inches on a Kuchera map. That's not ideal! Hopefully it's the Euro being too dry, but can't take another haircut on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 we're in storm mode. the silence in here is deafening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: we're in storm mode. the silence in here is deafening. It’s gonna snow. Nothing special, but fresh snow to cover the green grass. Be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: we're in storm mode. the silence in here is deafening. Sorry. I'm at FHS' bushcraft hut made of pine needles and hopes and dreams tryna penetrate his nanny with a crowbar. Gonna have to go radio silent for a few hours. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, canderson said: It’s gonna snow. Nothing special, but fresh snow to cover the green grass. Be happy! Oh i am bro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 How about the good old SREF...? It seems to look much like the CTP forecast. In their wheelhouse right now. If they were ever gonna shine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 This is more in line with my thinking Dude that cutoff line is brutal north of the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Can we start the radar obs?......It looks good down south. Quick to the draw... early off the blocks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 48 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Riding my 3-6"...we'll see. The 18z EPS says that we are all in good shape for 5 to 6 inches in the LSV. This ensemble is only available in 10-1 ratio, so we could possibly add 1 or 2 inches of snow to this in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Trust it or not the Hrrr is very kind to the lsv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Trust it or not the Hrrr is very kind to the lsv. For the first time should tell you something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Trust it or not the Hrrr is very kind to the lsv. Yeah def adjusted moisture to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 That North Trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: That North Trend. Keeps going longer. Second wave for the win 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 17 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Yeah def adjusted moisture to the west That is the first time I noticed it pushing some of the 36+ dBZ returns near us and it really gets into in areas of the LSV to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now