Jns2183 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Read up on the Brier score if you want to know how the NWS scores itself, models, forecasts, etchttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: True but not reality anymore unless we take away the drugs. The AFD's themselves are littered with model references now. 20-30 years ago a model as rarely mentioned but now the AFD's are much a model run down vs. meteorology. This is a great point. So often now a significant portion of the AFDs is just a rundown of the latest model guidance. Don't get me wrong, I still like reading them and enjoy the technical aspects but their deference to modelology is much more noticeable these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: This is a great point. So often now a significant portion of the AFDs is just a rundown of the latest model guidance. Don't get me wrong, I still like reading them and enjoy the technical aspects but their deference to modelology is much more noticeable these days. Yes it is. It has been for years now. Same with on air weather folks (except for Allweather). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Read up on the Brier score if you want to know how the NWS scores itself, models, forecasts, etc https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score . Good stuff, reminds me of the least squares method for determining a line of best fit in statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: and I 100% agree with that but what is causing the trends in models today? I know he doesn't really explain it other than twitter posts but what is it. For most of this season storms have been modeled too high with QPF only to see a reduction in the final 24-48 hours. I think there's a correlation to that being Nina influenced. That's a guess based on my perception, perhaps @MAG5035 could actually provide real analysis. We've been saying for a few days that 10, perhaps 12" was the max for this storm in a few lucky spots - this was never going to be a prolific snow maker. Flow is WAY too progressive to allow for monster totals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: For most of this season storms have been modeled too high with QPF only to see a reduction in the final 24-48 hours. I think there's a correlation to that being Nina influenced. That's a guess based on my perception, perhaps @MAG5035 could actually provide real analysis. We've been saying for a few days that 10, perhaps 12" was the max for this storm in a few lucky spots - this was never going to be a prolific snow maker. Flow is WAY too progressive to allow for monster totals. That's it right there in my amateur mind. Progressive and models don't hone in on that until the 24-48 hour timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 A big key to what we're going to see snow wise with this system is what happens right up front late tonight into early tomorrow with that finger of early warm advection snows that develops and where it's placed as that probably will be the best snows ratio wise and could throw a stripe of a few inches right off the bat to whoever gets it.That's really been the name of the game with this system since last week, what it does on the front end... even with it being a much colder system overall than it was looking at that point. At any rate, it seemed like a good bit of guidance today (especially the short term and high res stuff) places this early stuff closer to a JST-UNV-IPT line than say a Cumberland to MDT one and then the main surge of precip fills in the rest where it will probably be heavier overall in the southern tier. This is actually most important for that corridor (JST/UNV/IPT/FIG) because this may be a low end advisory or worse without it in the central counties. I'd wager the folks that gets a good piece of the early stuff and transitions into the main surge without wasting a period of light or non-consequential rates are probably going to be the ones that see the best accumulations for the whole event. And if that actually does end up back as far as that JST-IPT corridor, I'd def be more worried about the implications of eventual mixing in the LSV counties. NAM and related near term guidance is the mixiest still, while generally everything else minimizes the mixing above the mason-dixon line. Still have the same concerns with the 500mb mean trough centered west over the central US as well as the mid-level features west of PA and associated WAA busting 0ºC somewhere in that 850-700 layer in esp the LSV. The trend the last couple days has been a bit of a SE shift in the heavy swath and especially an overall toning down on QPF. I think this is basically a 4-8" for all the regulars in here. Clearfield and Williamsport should eventually at least get to 3-4" by the end of this event. Places like AOO/UNV 5-6" and the best chance of a consistent 6"+ swath likely resides closer to the turnpike. Below the turnpike in the southern tier/LSV has the best QPF for widespread 6"+ but that directly depends on if the mixing happens. If it does, I still think everyone gets 3-4". The upper end of this is probably 10". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 HH GFS stays the course MA forum won't like it but it is still snowing Friday morning up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: A big key to what we're going to see snow wise with this system is what happens right up front late tonight into early tomorrow with that finger of early warm advection snows that develops and where it's placed as that probably will be the best snows ratio wise and could throw a stripe of a few inches right off the bat to whoever gets it.That's really been the name of the game with this system since last week, what it does on the front end... even with it being a much colder system overall than it was looking at that point. At any rate, it seemed like a good bit of guidance today (especially the short term and high res stuff) places this early stuff closer to a JST-UNV-IPT line than say a Cumberland to MDT one and then the main surge of precip fills in the rest where it will probably be heavier overall in the southern tier. This is actually most important for that corridor (JST/UNV/IPT/FIG) because this may be a low end advisory or worse without it in the central counties. I'd wager the folks that gets a good piece of the early stuff and transitions into the main surge without wasting a period of light or non-consequential rates are probably going to be the ones that see the best accumulations for the whole event. And if that actually does end up back as far as that JST-IPT corridor, I'd def be more worried about the implications of eventual mixing in the LSV counties. NAM and related near term guidance is the mixiest still, while generally everything else minimizes the mixing above the mason-dixon line. Still have the same concerns with the 500mb mean trough centered west over the central US as well as the mid-level features west of PA and associated WAA busting 0ºC somewhere in that 850-700 layer in esp the LSV. The trend the last couple days has been a bit of a SE shift in the heavy swath and especially an overall toning down on QPF. I think this is basically a 4-8" for all the regulars in here. Clearfield and Williamsport should eventually at least get to 3-4" by the end of this event. Places like AOO/UNV 5-6" and the best chance of a consistent 6"+ swath likely resides closer to the turnpike. Below the turnpike in the southern tier/LSV has the best QPF for widespread 6"+ but that directly depends on if the mixing happens. If it does, I still think everyone gets 3-4". The upper end of this is probably 10". Thanks Mag great writeup as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, paweather said: HH GFS stays the course MA forum won't like it but it is still snowing Friday morning up here. Para gives me 6-7". GFS gives me 2. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Para gives me 6-7". GFS gives me 2. LOL Gosh I didn't realize the sharp cutoff. GFS/Para gives me pretty much 6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Gosh I didn't realize the sharp cutoff. GFS/Para gives me pretty much 6-7. I am mostly sleet on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I am mostly sleet on the GFS. OH. Well it should be interesting tomorrow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Can we start the radar obs?......It looks good down south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 43 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: For most of this season storms have been modeled too high with QPF only to see a reduction in the final 24-48 hours. I think there's a correlation to that being Nina influenced. That's a guess based on my perception, perhaps @MAG5035 could actually provide real analysis. We've been saying for a few days that 10, perhaps 12" was the max for this storm in a few lucky spots - this was never going to be a prolific snow maker. Flow is WAY too progressive to allow for monster totals. I don't know if it's necessarily a Nina thing. Models being too high with QPF certainly isn't anything new.. especially on the high resolution short range stuff like the NAM and also the RGEM at times too. Pattern is progressive but we're also not phasing shortwaves or amplifying a big time low here in this alignment, and that's a good thing with where that 500mb trough is postioned currently with no NAO/AO blocking anymore. That's why the overrunning aspect of this wave is probably going to be the main part of the storm with the weak surface low and weak mid-level features. We've had a few of these type events this year too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Hug the HRDPS. Nice thump before mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Mshaffer526 said: Hug the HRDPS. Nice thump before mix. what a cutoff, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, sauss06 said: what a cutoff, wow Yeah NW cutoff is a B. Hoping that softens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: Hug the HRDPS. Nice thump before mix. What does the Cras say at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: Hug the HRDPS. Nice thump before mix. To quote my Adams county friend, I approve. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Do we need to worry about the sun angle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: Do we need to worry about the sun angle? As the morning drags on, will definitely be tougher. The good news looks like this will be coming in earlier than initially thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: Hug the HRDPS. Nice thump before mix. This is more in line with my thinking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Do we need to worry about the sun angle? Well...Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz was discussing this live on TV at 4... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Mshaffer526 said: As the morning drags on, will definitely be tougher. The good news looks like this will be coming in earlier than initially thought. I'm joking....been doing this too long sorry. I am ready to make my top ten excuse post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Well...Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz was discussing this live on TV at 4... Seriously? OK. well then I cannot make it an excuse for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: This is more in line with my thinking we need blizz to come in to save the day with the Marysvlle model giving us 12-18" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, sauss06 said: we need blizz to come in to save the day with the Marysvlle model giving us 12-18" How about the good old SREF...? It seems to look much like the CTP forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: How about the good old SREF...? It seems to look much like the CTP forecast. Keep them comin Blizz. These models are all over the place look at DC on this one. WOW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Well...Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz was discussing this live on TV at 4... Lol... sun angle talk on February 18th... It wasn’t a problem in March of 2017, 2018 or 2019... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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