Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 FWIW, the 3K says the LSV might not even need a WWA much less a WSW, Ugly. Low QPF output. I rarely look at the 3K as its qpf output is questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 FWIW, the 3K says the LSV might not even need a WWA much less a WSW, Ugly. Low QPF output. I rarely look at the 3K as its qpf output is questionable. It says 4.4” on .55”qpf. Sleet?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I'm not backing out. I'm staying with my call 5-8" IMBY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 HH 12K NAM and call it a day snows through Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: It says 4.4” on .55”qpf. Sleet? . I see it saying 2-3" in most areas of the LSV. This is Kuch but 10-1 is basically the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I honestly don't know the verification on the 12K versus 3K NAM but I always thought the 3K but the 3K was never really enthused by this storm I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 It’s saying one big sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 There is no model consensus as always this winter with these storms. This one should be the easy one I would have thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: There is no model consensus as always this winter with these storms. This one should be the easy one I would have thought. I know...nothing easy about PA snows in a Nina. We have to scratch and claw our way to victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 There is no model consensus as always this winter with these storms. This one should be the easy one I would have thought. Part of the problem is the amount of models we have. We suffer from a gluttony of data, but a dearth of wisdom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I know...nothing easy about PA snows in a Nina. We have to scratch and claw our way to victory. Yep. I agree you have been a stickler about that this winter and good for you. I wouldn't want to be a forecaster right now. I know we have warnings up but this again will be a game time decision on whether we get 2-3, 6-8, 8-10. I really thought the overrunning part of the storm was 99% given and we would capitalize on that and any additional on the coastal would be great. Now nothing is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 To read each model correctly we would need a bounty of verification scores for each model that is fairly localized. And it seems that info is all behind a noaa login. I’ve spent hours looking and it appears I cannot get access to the data I want because I’m not a noaa employee. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Posted by one of the mets in the MA forum. I vote let's just go with this and close the thread from further discussion. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Part of the problem is the amount of models we have. We suffer from a gluttony of data, but a dearth of wisdom . 3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: To read each model correctly we would need a bounty of verification scores for each model that is fairly localized. And it seems that info is all behind a noaa login. I’ve spent hours looking and it appears I cannot get access to the data I want because I’m not a noaa employee. . I know but you would think technology would be better, we are in 2021. Being this hobby for years it is really the same every year with models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 @Festus Here is Mark Ellinwood's map - I always thought he did a tremendous job with snowfall predictions: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Sticking with my 4-6” for MDT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I'm going all in 8-10" lollipops of 12". I know I am wrong, and I admit it right now to get it out of the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Sticking with my 4-6” for MDT. I think MDT sees 6.5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: I'm going all in 8-10" lollipops of 12". I know I am wrong, and I admit it right now to get it out of the way. LOL, then no credit if you are right. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: LOL, then no credit if you are right. LOL. LOL. I'll be fine with that Bubbler! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Part of the problem is the amount of models we have. We suffer from a gluttony of data, but a dearth of wisdom . Truer words have never been spoken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: Truer words have never been spoken. We probably could do much better seeing one model run per day up until 48 hours then 2 a day. So many forecasts are wrong by using model watching...myself included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: We probably could do much better seeing one model run per day up until 48 hours then 2 a day. So many forecasts are wrong by using model watching...myself included. It would certainly eliminate some of the back and forth nature of this hobby. The highs and lows come at you quick when you live and die by each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We probably could do much better seeing one model run per day up until 48 hours then 2 a day. So many forecasts are wrong by using model watching...myself included. me too you know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: It would certainly eliminate some of the back and forth nature of this hobby. The highs and lows come at you quick when you live and die by each model run. This board may deflate though. When within a week of an event the every 6 hours makes the bread here. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: It would certainly eliminate some of the back and forth nature of this hobby. The highs and lows come at you quick when you live and die by each model run. As Eric says "folks...it's Meteorology, not Modelology" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I think MDT sees 6.5” . The more the merrier. This has been a great winter, any snow at all is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: As Eric says "folks...it's Meteorology, not Modelology" True but not reality anymore unless we take away the drugs. The AFD's themselves are littered with model references now. 20-30 years ago a model was rarely mentioned but now the AFD's are as much a model run down vs. meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: As Eric says "folks...it's Meteorology, not Modelology" and I 100% agree with that but what is causing the trends in models today? I know he doesn't really explain it other than twitter posts but what is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Will this be a wet or dry snow? And what ratio are we looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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