Cashtown_Coop Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Only if the Nam allows it. If the Nam starts drying out in 90 min I am pulling the plug! :-). If euro is least amount and worst case, I’ll take it. Still gives me 6-7” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Three other Euro points... 1) The primary SLP is so weak that it never shows on the Pivotal maps. One has to play the "find the bagginess game". Even when I zoom in there is no "L" until the Low has transferred off the coast 2) Monday's 1-3" refresher is still in play. 3-The majority of the Non mountainous Continental US is above freezing at 7PM on February 23rd but its only in the mid 50's in N Central Florida at that same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: If euro is least amount and worst case, I’ll take it. Still gives me 6-7” Yea, I meant pulling the plug on this being anything more than the low end WSW type storm. I should have clarified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 So will this be the storm that finally breaks the north shifts within 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Euro continues the drying trend I alluded to earlier with the GFS and RGEM. The primary Low is just, blah, doesn't pack enough punch. Even when it hits the coast there's nothing remotely resembling any type of bombing out or real intensification. But hey, should still be a solid few hours in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 43 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: It's really not *that* bad. 4-8 has been my thoughts since I bought in and got chips late yesterday. Will likely tick north a pinch and that’s where it’ll ride IMO. trough axis and progressive theme was always supportive of WAA event but notsomuch of a bombing coastal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Three other Euro points... 1) The primary SLP is so weak that it never shows on the Pivotal maps. One has to play the "find the bagginess game". Even when I zoom in there is no "L" until the Low has transferred off the coast 2) Monday's 1-3" refresher is still in play. 3-The majority of the Non mountainous Continental US is above freezing at 7PM on February 23rd but its only in the mid 50's in N Central Florida at that same time frame. I'll bite on point #3 - we've been lacking a large temperature gradient for much of the winter that has hampered the development of large storms. This is an overexaggerated example - as we roll into March, I'd anticipate a bigger range (gradient) and the opportunity for larger storms to present itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I'd love to be sitting in the office at CTP right now. You have WSW for the majority of your CWA and guidance suggests dropping to WWA for the southern 2/3 of the CWA and nothing for the rest, but I don't even know if that's allowed. What do you do for those areas? Issue a HWO? Downgrade to WWA even though that may not verify? Tough call. Their silence this afternoon is pretty noticable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I'd love to be sitting in the office at CTP right now. You have WSW for the majority of your CWA and guidance suggests dropping to WWA for the southern 2/3 of the CWA and nothing for the rest, but I don't even know if that's allowed. What do you do for those areas? Issue a HWO? Downgrade to WWA even though that may not verify? Tough call. Their silence this afternoon is pretty noticable. I say they update between 3:30 -4:00. They want to take a good look at the king first. (NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6-10” is a nice storm but mixing aside, this has been modeled for the SE 1/2 of pa since yesterday. My bud said last night “hey the cabin is in for 6-8”. I told him no way that happens and we’ll b lucky to get 3-4 in Tioga. I stand by that. Still think 4-8 is reasonable nw to se. nothing wrong with that at all. furthermore 10” in what’s been looking like a 12-18 hr event is nothing to complain about. If we lose coastal it’s a 12 hrish event. That said 4-8 ” is reasonable IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The HRRR with its southern precip max and dry slot looks a lot like a Miller B to me. Though it still keys on that second wave love it or hate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Haven't seen this posted yet, updated at 1:35.....looks like a slight reduction in totals if I recall correctly from the previous version.... uuuuuhhhhh for whatever reason when I try to copy the recent one it's pasting the older version from 7:35 last night, not sure why...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: Haven't seen this posted yet, updated at 1:35.....looks like a slight reduction in totals if I recall correctly from the previous version.... They cut it by 1/3. LNS was 9" on the previous map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 That is yesterday's map. This is today's: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 That was like three graphics ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 @Mshaffer526 I think CTP had a map this morning with 9" "Expected" for LNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambria County Wx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Good afternoon everyone. I can't believe how bright it is outside. There's this bright ball in the sky....haven't seen it around for awhile. How is the storm looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: @Mshaffer526 I think CTP had a map this morning with 9" "Expected" for LNS. They did, but the one they just updated a little bit ago didn't really cut totals that much. 8" for pretty much the entire southern tier east of I-81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Mshaffer526 said: That is yesterday's map. This is today's: Thank you that is what I was trying to post haha, literally staring at the new one on my screen but then when I go to copy and paste the image an older version shows up, who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambria County Wx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 For the LSV crew URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 239 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 PAZ036-056>059-063>066-181245- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0007.210218T0900Z-210219T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0005.210218T0600Z-210219T1500Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 239 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected along with a light glaze of ice. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of sleet mixed with freezing rain is possible late Thursday afternoon which may produce a light glaze of ice. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambria County Wx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 For everyone else: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 239 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 PAZ024>026-033-034-181245- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0007.210218T0600Z-210219T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0015.210218T0600Z-210219T1500Z/ Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Somerset-Bedford- Including the cities of Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Somerset, and Bedford 239 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Cambria, Blair, Huntingdon, Somerset and Bedford Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 239 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 PAZ012-017>019-027-028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-181245- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0007.210218T0900Z-210219T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0015.210218T0600Z-210219T1500Z/ Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre- Mifflin-Juniata-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Including the cities of Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, and Berwick 239 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @Mshaffer526 I think CTP had a map this morning with 9" "Expected" for LNS. correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The Nam is not going to go Euro on us. A longer event with more qpf. Not done the event yet for a qpf map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The Nam is not going to go Euro on us. A longer event with more qpf. Not done the event yet for a qpf map. Looks to be following the cutback on NW side of the storm though. Purple ticklin the Mason Dixon line at 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 someone needs to call Blizz boss. His work should not interfere while we're in storm mode for christ sakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 CTP just hoisted warnings from Perry County down to Franklin and SE of there it looks like. Edit: Fulton County on east. Edit (2): That includes the Skook as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Looks to be following the cutback on NW side of the storm though. Purple ticklin the Mason Dixon line at 23 Definitely less snow through 33 far N/W vs. 12Z. A little less south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Definitely less snow through 33 far N/W vs. 12Z. A little less south and east. Euro, NAM, and Icon all look similar now. (except for the NAM's second max up into true CPA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Gotta say verbatim coastal looks to be tucked a bit more than GFS's depiction. Not bad....not bad. Not sure how well N and W crew will do, but it wasnt hard to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Euro, NAM, and Icon all look similar now. (except for the NAM's second max up into true CPA) that second max is achieved in WAA side of event. Just remember how well that did the other week.....just sayin. I'd shave 2" off that n be giddy if I lived under it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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