sauss06 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Or.....DT has broken nose....just sayin. Boy he can be arrogant as all hell. I owe him one. I'll do it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 CMC was taint free for us, and has Chesco adn pts east taintin. As we get closer and BY forecasts start to become increasingly more important...... a true must pull for the model that shows him/her what they want to see, and I approve of the CMC. Overall it was a step back from 0z in qpf, but still has me white not wet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Para for viewing purposes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 and in summary for nooners sans Euro, it seems like they tightened up the snow cone on norther and souther extents as well as a little drier overal. Were all still in the cone, so ride it....ride it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: CMC was taint free for us, and has Chesco adn pts east taintin. As we get closer and BY forecasts start to become increasingly more important...... a true must pull for the model that shows him/her what they want to see, and I approve of the CMC. Overall it was a step back from 0z in qpf, but still has me white not wet. It is like a double edge sword where is the north trend (then probably mix). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Para for viewing purposes:Seeing that heavy stripe that south would usually be a bit concerning if it wasn’t this year. This year it’s perfect for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 MDT needs 2.4” to hit 30.6”, it’s 30 year average from 1980-2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 sauss, you were right. -- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. -- 000 FXUS61 KCTP 171454 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 954 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and cold today with increasing clouds into tonight. A winter storm will bring widespread accumulating snow Thursday through Thursday night with 6 inches or more possible over the southeast half of the area. Leftover snow showers Friday will fade into the weekend with below normal temperatures. A fast moving system may bring another round of snow Sunday night into Monday. Behind this early week system, the pattern through the end of February looks less stormy with a temperature outlook that tilts the odds toward near to above average readings. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- A cold morning with a good deal of welcome sunshine in many areas. Surface high building into the Keystone State ensures fair and cold conditions today. Forecast highs in the low 20s over the Alleghenies to around 30 degrees in the lower Susq. Valley will be a solid 10 to 15 degrees below normal with a 24hr MaxT change of similar magnitude. Warm advection aloft ahead of deepening mid/upper trough over the Plains should result in increasing clouds this evening into tonight. -- End Changed Discussion -- && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Does anyone in here have a strong statistics background?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Does anyone in here have a strong statistics background? . Yes but I'm afraid to ask why haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, FHS said: That,s pretty interesting. We where just getting the wheels turning or already in a very strong la Nina by jan 2011 and solor activity was just ramping up its climb to maxims . Thats just two of the similarities i can think of between this winter and 2011. FHS thoughts on the impeding snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Yes but I'm afraid to ask why hahaHaha, I can message you this evening. It has to do with goodness of fit regarding a curve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, FHS said: lol really, well today is my birthday. Happy Birthday! Enjoy it and Enjoy a late Birthday gift tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 22 minutes ago, pasnownut said: sauss, you were right. -- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. -- 000 FXUS61 KCTP 171454 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 954 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and cold today with increasing clouds into tonight. A winter storm will bring widespread accumulating snow Thursday through Thursday night with 6 inches or more possible over the southeast half of the area. Leftover snow showers Friday will fade into the weekend with below normal temperatures. A fast moving system may bring another round of snow Sunday night into Monday. Behind this early week system, the pattern through the end of February looks less stormy with a temperature outlook that tilts the odds toward near to above average readings. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- A cold morning with a good deal of welcome sunshine in many areas. Surface high building into the Keystone State ensures fair and cold conditions today. Forecast highs in the low 20s over the Alleghenies to around 30 degrees in the lower Susq. Valley will be a solid 10 to 15 degrees below normal with a 24hr MaxT change of similar magnitude. Warm advection aloft ahead of deepening mid/upper trough over the Plains should result in increasing clouds this evening into tonight. -- End Changed Discussion -- && well, i started to wonder. Looked like the sun was trying to peak through. But ive been cold since 430 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intentionallove Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Festus said: Crazy reading the last page or 2 how close so many of us are geographically yet experience such different results this time of year. Whenever covid eases, we should have a gathering. I can only imagine how different most of us are in person versus how we are perceived on this board. That would be fun! I'm 5 miles WNW of Etown right inside Dauphin County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Haha, I can message you this evening. It has to do with goodness of fit regarding a curve . Boy, I am glad to be lost in this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Where is the EURO? LOL. It has to be here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: Boy, I am glad to be lost in this one. Yeah....Im not gonna touch that one either....Im sittin this one out. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: Yeah....Im not gonna touch that one either....Im sittin this one out. LOL Just get me to the EURO my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, paweather said: Just get me to the EURO my friend. Will it be Dr. No, or will there be a stay of execution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Mshaffer526 said: Will it be Dr. No, or will there be a stay of execution? Let's hope for a stay. 12z runs a little drier so let's hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 If you guys want a meetup I bartend at a local restaurant with locations in Harrisburg and camp hill. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I'll be honest and I don't want to poo poo on the party which is why my posts have been few and far between today... Since Sunday, I have felt exceptionally good AND confident about this storm. My faith in this storm is wavering big time today for 2 reasons: overall less QPF being modeled, and more importantly, mixing issues. Someone talk me back from the precipice. First one to alleviate my fear gets a free brewskie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I'll be honest and I don't want to poo poo on the party which is why my posts have been few and far between today... Since Sunday, I have felt exceptionally good AND confident about this storm. My faith in this storm is wavering big time today for 2 reasons: overall less QPF being modeled, and more importantly, mixing issues. Someone talk me back from the precipice. First one to alleviate my fear gets a free brewskie. (Once again), I would rather be where you are than where I am Expect the least and hope for the best. At this point, I just want things to be a mess outside. A few inches of fresh white followed by sleet, I can live with. The key difference here vs. the super-frustrating storm from a few weeks ago is that once the snow is finished, you can be at peace knowing it's just about done. That was sheer, unadulterated agony watching everyone switch back to snow with that storm while I kept pinging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, FHS said: Thank you . Good luck to you I hope you cash in big. hope its a great day Flathead.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'll be honest and I don't want to poo poo on the party which is why my posts have been few and far between today... Since Sunday, I have felt exceptionally good AND confident about this storm. My faith in this storm is wavering big time today for 2 reasons: overall less QPF being modeled, and more importantly, mixing issues. Someone talk me back from the precipice. First one to alleviate my fear gets a free brewskie. Easy. The world will continue to spin no matter what happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Overrunning is a given at this point. Yes, models seemed to be a bit drier a more south projected in super snow totals for that. But my interest is now with the Coastal and if we can achieve anything at this point with that. Trust the Nam to feel better if you don't right now. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I would be ecstatic if this was a low end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'll be honest and I don't want to poo poo on the party which is why my posts have been few and far between today... Since Sunday, I have felt exceptionally good AND confident about this storm. My faith in this storm is wavering big time today for 2 reasons: overall less QPF being modeled, and more importantly, mixing issues. Someone talk me back from the precipice. First one to alleviate my fear gets a free brewskie. I would love to alleviate your concerns but I'm having some of the same worries myself. Let's just put it this way, we should be in for a nice thump of snow sometime between roughly 7am-Noon before we have to even consider worrying about mixing, or at least that's the hope ha. Yes the heaviest rates may remain below the border but we should still be in for some nice amounts. Just enjoy whatever comes during the morning and the rest is gravy. The weather gods will have the final say, as they always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 @paweather, Euro PBP duty starts in 25 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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