pawatch Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 16 degrees here his morning. Yesterday's event didn't really effect me much other than freezing stuff on cars. Roads was pretty much bare. I see we got bumped down overnight. Still has been a much better winter than normal. Guess today grease and fuel up... Good Luck to everyone tomorrow!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: This thread is now about FHS being cast in the remake of "Roadhouse." LOLLLL. That is what I just said you know there is a storm coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, paweather said: You know there is a storm coming with some of these comments. It's about time for Nooners with Nut's so things will get back on track here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: It's about time for Nooners with Nut's so things will get back on track here. LOL. Yep we need the Nooners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, paweather said: LOL. Yep we need the Nooners. I just called @canderson's wife about a nooner. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: LOL. Yep we need the Nooners. HRRR is way south. A little worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Atomixwx said: I just called @canderson's wife about a nooner. Too much cold snap last night with this forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think the prudent call for the LSV is 8-12" or we just stay at 6-9 and be happy to overachieve.... i guess its all in how one looks at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: HRRR is way south. A little worrisome. Yes different. It clears us out before 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Overnight low here of 20. I see Bradford hit -1, although that's chump change compared to the -34 that Seagull Lake, MN bottomed out at, anyway.......currently 21/8 here with scattered high clouds. I think we'll start seeing the convection-allowing models pick up on the sneaky warm layers today and the increased chances for sleet intrusion along the southern tier counties but not before the initial morning thump brings us all a solid 4-8" of fluffy flakes. The standard northern shift inside of 24-36 hours seems likely as well but hopefully not to an extent that would bankrupt us southern folk, doubtful. WPC is on board with southern ridge and valley region/eastern CTP land being the best zone for solid totals. Onward and upward! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, paweather said: Yes different. It clears us out before 18z? It has that two phase look to the storm. Just keeps the really good stuff mostly south but clips Lancaster on the way by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: It has that two phase look to the storm. Just keeps the really mostly south but clips Lancaster on the way by. so many Low Pressures. It comes back around at 21z. So the idea is there will be breaks where everyone will think it is over and then comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, paweather said: so many Low Pressures. It comes back around at 21z. So the idea is there will be breaks where everyone will think it is over and then comes back. Yea, we get 2-3 more inch's with round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It has that two phase look to the storm. Just keeps the really good stuff mostly south but clips Lancaster on the way by. I’m not a big fan of the 2 wave idea. You get 2-4” round 1 then by the time 2nd wave starts you lose the mids and switch over. (Past storms) I’m hoping we get the qpf bomb where the snow starts hot and heavy, and continues with no let up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, paweather said: so many Low Pressures. It comes back around at 21z. So the idea is there will be breaks where everyone will think it is over and then comes back. yeah i dont think you were done w/ the run when you posted that. Truth is we are getting close enough that most in our forum are in for something, but so long as nooners hold or even tick back north at many of us expect, we should still be fine w/ this event. Sligthly south is a great spot right now IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: I’m not a big fan of the 2 wave idea. You get 2-4” round 1 then by the time 2nd wave starts you lose the mids and switch over. I’m hoping we get the qpf bomb where the snow starts hot and heavy, and continues with no let up Yea, me as well. That was why I was a bit disappointed in the HRRR look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Yea, me as well. That was why I was a bit disappointed in the HRRR look. At range not too worried but don’t want to see a trend with other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I’m not a big fan of the 2 wave idea. You get 2-4” round 1 then by the time 2nd wave starts you lose the mids and switch over. I’m hoping we get the qpf bomb where the snow starts hot and heavy, and continues with no let up Yeah as MAG so eloquently stated, w/ part 2 we need coastal to wrap up and get us an easterly fetch to throw the goods back this way, but even if that doesnt happen light overrunning events may attack the thermals, but may not wreck them, so I'm sorta ok w/ either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I’m not going to sweat precip types. Just show me the qpf. I want 1”+ liquid equivalent 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It has that two phase look to the storm. Just keeps the really mostly south but clips Lancaster on the way by. Yes it does have that two-parter look to it that we've seen on some globals for a while now. With that said, I put VERY little stock in the HRRR at anything past hours 8-10ish, just hot garbage at range. But it can be useful at sniffing out trends as the start time becomes imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yes it does have that two-parter look to it that we've seen on some globals for a while now. With that said, I put VERY little stock in the HRRR at anything past hours 8-10ish, just hot garbage at range. But it can be useful at sniffing out trends as the start time becomes imminent. Agreed, it was just the only 12Z out at the point I looked. Nam is getting close to being at the game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Agreed, it was just the only 12Z out at the point I looked. Nam is getting close to being at the game time. haha yes I know the feeling, just itching for something to look at. I'm right there with ya, always looking even when I know there's little value to be had. NAM looks almost unchanged to my eyes early on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Definitely moisture laden: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, paweather said: Definitely moisture laden: Will be good haul for much of southern PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Someone's going to bust hard in Lanco - Horst going for 2-5" south of Rt. 30 and 4-8" north...and once again, believes that a changeover will occur long before models say it will... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I’m not going to sweat precip types. Just show me the qpf. I want 1”+ liquid equivalent Yes. Can't agree more - can't get good amounts of snow without the QPF to produce it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The NAM showing the 2 part storm again pretty well modeled now. Overrunning to the coastal and if we can score twice then it will be the upper snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Someone's going to bust hard in Lanco - Horst going for 2-5" south of Rt. 30 and 4-8" north...and once again, believes that a changeover will occur long before models say it will... Yep the man knows. This is what I was getting at earlier with the near-term Meso models picking up on the sleet intrusion as we progress through the day. The resolutions of the globals always struggle with those narrow layers. Already seeing that a bit with the NAM, even more so with the 3k. Hopefully those of us north of 30 can stave it off until the heaviest rates have come through, which it seems we will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I’m not going to sweat precip types. Just show me the qpf. I want 1”+ liquid equivalent Nam is over 1" right up through Adams 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yep the man knows. This is what I was getting at earlier with the near-term Meso models picking up on the sleet intrusion as we progress through the day. The resolutions of the globals always struggle with those narrow layers. Already seeing that a bit with the NAM, even more so with the 3k. Hopefully those of us north of 30 can stave it off until the heaviest rates have come through, which it seems we will. Yes, he's not afraid to go against ALL guidance...and he's usually spot on OR even he underplays the advancement of the warmth aloft. Sterling is going 6-8" in Harford and Cecil counties, hence my post that someone is going to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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