Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, canderson said: My vernal thing in winter: Much like a woman, you take the 4-6” you get and be happy with it. I shared your sentiment with my wife. Her eyes got really big and all she said was "if only." (She was thinking we're getting 1-3" of SNOW so this surprised her) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 to 6 snow is always a win. In some years that would be the biggest event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I just came from the Philly thread (this forum...not Philly weather) and Ralphie Simpson is making it sound like storm cancel. I don't think the 0z guidance looks too bad? I mean - if we're expecting 12-18" well yeah, but this should still be a 3-6", 4-8", 5-10" kind of deal. I'll take that. Yea this wasn't really looking like much more than a 6-12" type event at any point in the heavy axis, other than like the 18z NAM. Another thing I didn't mention on my long post earlier going over the mid-level lows was that we're not really deepening the coastal storm. It's just an overrunning wave attacking a cold high pressure with overrunning WAA precip in either one or two separate heavier precip areas depending on the model. And the weak 850mb low never goes to the coast nor strengthens much, with the parent low staying west of here. So you don't develop the anomalous easterly flow you want to look for to start getting the widespread big amounts and intense banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 This will be a solid 2 to 5 or 3 to 6 type storm. A few runs of the nam didn’t change what this storm initially was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 21 hours ago, anotherman said: Every one of your posts is filled with whining. Come on, man! It could be last winter! Well when it comes down to it yes I complain when 12 hours out they cant get a forecast right. Im glad it isnt last winter Im just saying when I hear the most accurate forecast from local news I just wonder what the % is like 20? lol when every one else is like 15. I dont want to complain but it feels like forecasts have got worse vs when I was a kid they felt 9 times out of 10 spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Well when it comes down to it yes I complain when 12 hours out they cant get a forecast right. Im glad it isnt last winter Im just saying when I hear the most accurate forecast from local news I just wonder what the % is like 20? lol when every one else is like 15. I dont want to complain but it feels like forecasts have got worse vs when I was a kid they felt 9 times out of 10 spot on.How much did you scrutinize a weather forecast as a kid? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Wunderground calling for 5” IMBY. 2” downgrade from last night. Odd move given uptick in guidance Kuchera maps unless they think that’s due to mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I did a lot actually. Most of the times like I said they were pretty right. I mean the blizzard of 93 and 96 both were called a week plus out. Other storms like in high school we pretty much got the snow they called for every time if they called for 6 inchs we got about that. if they said 4 inchs then change to sleet at noon. right on the dot it changed at noon. now it feels like they put to much stock in models and dont forecast or go instincts. I mean how many times have you heard a model was thrown out cause of a error or a problem with the initialization ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The 0z Euro & EPS held serve overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 CTP freshened up the Watch a few hours ago. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 254 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 PAZ027-028-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-172315- /O.EXT.KCTP.WS.A.0007.210218T0900Z-210219T1500Z/ Mifflin-Juniata-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland- Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- Including the cities of Lewistown, Mifflintown, Chambersburg, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 254 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From late tonight through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning and evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour are possible Thursday morning. The risk of a wintry mix Thursday night has been reduced and shifted farther to the southeast toward I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Here is the morning discussion from CTP: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Clouds continue to thicken into a mid to high level overcast sky by late evening. Attention turns to the next round of accumulating snowfall in central PA Thursday/Thursday night into Friday morning. Shortwave energy emerging from the southern Rockies out into the Plains leads to increasing warm advection downstream with moisture influx from the GOMEX. 700mb low will track northeast and cause WAA precipitation to overrun a cold wedge entrenched along the Appalachians. Model guidance trended deeper with the cold air for this cycle. This lead to a primary or dominant ptype of snow in CPA and therefore reduced/shifted icing risk farther to the southeast toward the I-95 corridor. We were keen to ride the winter storm watch on this shift, but some important call-outs would include 1) lower confidence in warning numbers for the northern portion of the watch area and 2) lower probs for wintry mix impacting areas to the southeast of I-81. Still can`t rule out a mix period Thursday night over the far southeast zones, but again the colder model trend has shifted axis of sleet/freezing rain farther southeast along the I-95 corridor. Updated storm total snow from tonight into early Friday morning shows a modest decrease/increase in numbers across the northwest/southeast portions of central PA. Max amounts are around 6-8 inches along the PA Turnpike/I-78 corridor. HREF and latest HRRR agree in an onset just prior to midnight over the south-central Alleghenies with potential for a "thump" of moderate-heavy snow Thursday morning as it spreads to the northeast with rates ~ 1"/hr most likely focused over the southern tier counties near the PA Turnpike/I-78 corridor. Another period of moderate snow looks possible Thursday evening with longer duration light snow intensity Thursday night Friday morning. Snow ends by Friday afternoon, but some lake-effect and upslope snow showers may linger over the northwest Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Here is the updated CTP “Expected” snow map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 59 minutes ago, medmax said: . Ah yes, the ole delete job. What was so important that it felt needed to be shared until the moment it actually was? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I found this to be interesting from an Accuwether article this morning. "Already 73.2% of the lower 48 U.S. is covered in snow and we will build on the existing amount of snow on the ground with this next storm," Rayno said. Since snow cover began being tracked regularly in 2003, this is the highest percentage of the contiguous 48 states to be covered by snow. The old record was 70.9% on Jan. 12, 2011.“ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I found this to be interesting from an Accuwether article this morning. "Already 73.2% of the lower 48 U.S. is covered in snow and we will build on the existing amount of snow on the ground with this next storm," Rayno said. Since snow cover began being tracked regularly in 2003, this is the highest percentage of the contiguous 48 states to be covered by snow. The old record was 70.9% on Jan. 12, 2011.“ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 36 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the updated CTP “Expected” snow map. Definitely anticipating that axis to shift NW by a good bit over the next 24 hours. Climo starting to flex its muscle again. I'll be happy with 4" in Gap, hopefully it can survive to the weekend for sledding with the kids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Definitely anticipating that axis to shift NW by a good bit over the next 24 hours. Climo starting to flex its muscle again. I'll be happy with 4" in Gap, hopefully it can survive to the weekend for sledding with the kids. If you get only 4 inches of snow in Gap, that will be because you got a whole lot of sleet. That will make it last a lot longer than if it were pure snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the morning discussion from CTP: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Clouds continue to thicken into a mid to high level overcast sky by late evening. Attention turns to the next round of accumulating snowfall in central PA Thursday/Thursday night into Friday morning. Shortwave energy emerging from the southern Rockies out into the Plains leads to increasing warm advection downstream with moisture influx from the GOMEX. 700mb low will track northeast and cause WAA precipitation to overrun a cold wedge entrenched along the Appalachians. Model guidance trended deeper with the cold air for this cycle. This lead to a primary or dominant ptype of snow in CPA and therefore reduced/shifted icing risk farther to the southeast toward the I-95 corridor. We were keen to ride the winter storm watch on this shift, but some important call-outs would include 1) lower confidence in warning numbers for the northern portion of the watch area and 2) lower probs for wintry mix impacting areas to the southeast of I-81. Still can`t rule out a mix period Thursday night over the far southeast zones, but again the colder model trend has shifted axis of sleet/freezing rain farther southeast along the I-95 corridor. Updated storm total snow from tonight into early Friday morning shows a modest decrease/increase in numbers across the northwest/southeast portions of central PA. Max amounts are around 6-8 inches along the PA Turnpike/I-78 corridor. HREF and latest HRRR agree in an onset just prior to midnight over the south-central Alleghenies with potential for a "thump" of moderate-heavy snow Thursday morning as it spreads to the northeast with rates ~ 1"/hr most likely focused over the southern tier counties near the PA Turnpike/I-78 corridor. Another period of moderate snow looks possible Thursday evening with longer duration light snow intensity Thursday night Friday morning. Snow ends by Friday afternoon, but some lake-effect and upslope snow showers may linger over the northwest Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands. Thats about as good as one could expect to hear from CTP. Ok....I'm in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Early morning NAM and Euro look to have cut back some of our snow, but that probably just means more sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, anotherman said: Early morning NAM and Euro look to have cut back some of our snow, but that probably just means more sleet. 6Z NAM looked fine to me. Negligible difference from 0Z. The Euro was the lowest snow model at 0Z and may have reduced at 6Z, could be right but it's a bit on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, GrandmasterB said: 6Z NAM looked fine to me. Negligible difference from 0Z. The Euro was the lowest snow model at 0Z and may have reduced at 6Z, could be right but it's a bit on its own. Just saw the full 6Z Euro map in Midatl forum and...yeah it's fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Just saw the full 6Z Euro map in Midatl forum and...yeah it's fine. Yeah, it looks fine. My bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I think the prudent call for the LSV is 8-12" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 This could be MDT 3rd double digit snowfall of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, FHS said: I remember in the 90s when Chuck Roads dropped the ball on a December storm the whole town of Etters and Lewisberry myself included drove to his hose in Leewood village Marysville packing heat and also tar and sheep's wool torches . We drug that lying sob and his whole family out of his house to hang and burn but being the nice people we are around here I just gouged his fkn eyes while every one took turns kicking him in the nuts, even his family joined in for some reason. it was the only one old Chuck ever got wrong but needless to say Chuck retired the next day. True story I worked on a lot of houses in Leewood in phase 1 and 2. I Don't remember Chuck living there. Maybe he came later. Chuck lived outside of Duncannon behind my buddys house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 You know there is a storm coming with some of these comments. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: I worked on a lot of houses in Leewood in phase 1 and 2. I Don't remember Chuck living there. Maybe he came later. Chuck lived outside of Duncannon behind my buddys house. Read the story closely...that was Chuck Roads that Flathead beat up, not Chuck Rhodes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I believe we stay below freezing all day. Looks like mid 20s when precip arrives in the morning. It seems like snow gets here sooner then I thought too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 This thread is now about FHS being cast in the remake of "Roadhouse." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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