paweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The Low is still in the GULF @ 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, paweather said: The Low is still in the GULF @ 45. It's transferring to the VA Capes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Forecast has gusts as high as 31, just had several past 40. And still blowing strong. My day has been fulfilled. I've been waiting for this post. You never let me down. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: My day has been fulfilled. I've been waiting for this post. You never let me down. If there's a W/NW wind, I get hammered and pray siding isn't ripped from the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, anotherman said: I'd be happy with half that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 #faithintheflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 That's a classic 18z NAM job if i've ever seen one lol. 10"+ roughly southeast half of PA on the 10:1, and Kuchera coming out to be pretty close to the 10:1 in that stripe. DC and surrounding has 2-4" of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I have been reading a variety of start times. This is about a 6-7 am start time for us? Model dependent but yeah pretty much right after you get to work.....look out :0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM came full circle a little break and then coastal action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It's transferring to the VA Capes. Den dats a B...... not an A wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Aaaaand just like that the forum gets NAMed...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: That's a classic 18z NAM job if i've ever seen one lol. 10"+ roughly southeast half of PA on the 10:1, and Kuchera coming out to be pretty close to the 10:1 in that stripe. DC and surrounding has 2-4" of sleet. I’d like to see the qpf map. Must be in the 1.5 to 2” range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I'd be happy with half that Yep, cut it in half and let's call it a day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Den dats a B...... not an A wtf It's got pressure maxes all over the palce as if you look at TT's 48 hour panel and see the whole Eastern half of the US it shows an L down in the Gulf but the zoom in look shows this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: I’d like to see the qpf map. Must be in the 1.5 to 2” range ask and you shall receive.....mind you the coastal is still going and starting to overspread MD and VA with more precip at this time, hold tight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I’d like to see the qpf map. Must be in the 1.5 to 2” range Pretty close. MDT is getting 14.1 Kuchera on 1.36" QPF.. so basically a 10.4 to 1 avg snow ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Now let's move the southern edge a little more...southerly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: Pretty close. MDT is getting 14.1 Kuchera on 1.36" QPF. I noticed a slower less progressive look at 12z wrt MSLP eekin its way NE off the Chessy bay area. Was hoping that was legit as its likely helping w/ backbuiling of qpf for part 2 of the event. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 That NAM tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Now let's move the southern edge a little more...southerly. the techy term is SOUTHER get w/ da program pal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Here's the sleet total map, good lord lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Gotta love HH NAM runs! That was filthy. As others have pointed out, I love the look of all that overrunning with the surface low still in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 WSW up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 York and Lancaster WSW version - WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...York and Lancaster Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3k NAM is similar to the 12k, a bit less juicy but basically holds serve. Gotta love a good off-hour NAM run haha. I'll wait for the 0z suite but I think we're locking in here pretty good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The caution with this NAM run is indeed is it having trouble where to focus. The primary surface low (if you count the lowest pressure as primary) is actually off the VA coast at hour 54 not in the Gulf as some maps show. There are at least 3 areas of low pressure at hour 54 so the Nam is fighting with the "ejection of energy in pieces" issue the Globals have been as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 WSW headline for the rest of the region URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 335 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 PAZ017>019-026>028-035-036-049>053-056>059-063-064-170845- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0007.210218T0800Z-210219T1800Z/ Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland- Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 335 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of heavy snow is possible Thursday morning into the afternoon, especially in south-central Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The caution with this NAM run is indeed is it having trouble where to focus. The primary surface low (if you count the lowest pressure as primary) is actually off the VA coast at hour 54 not in the Gulf as some maps show. There are at least 3 areas of low pressure at hour 54 so the Nam is fighting with the "ejection of energy in pieces" issue the Globals have been as well. It's a pretty weak low pressure system overall that's trying to press up into what will be a much better positioned high pressure this go around. I don't think it's really fighting anything, it's actually more focused with a singular significant press of overrunning precip vs the Euro or the ||GFS which seems to have two separate surges of heavier precip. Euro op looked somewhat stronger with the high pressure so that likely had a hand in kind of focusing on the southern tier more. The surface "low" you see west of the mountains is part of the overall low pressure area but the colder denser air draining down via the high pressure in place gives it that two low look. This is an A with a pretty weak surface low. Classic overrunning look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: It's a pretty weak low pressure system overall that's trying to press up into what will be a much better positioned high pressure this go around. I don't think it's really fighting anything, it's actually more focused with a singular significant press of overrunning precip vs the Euro or the ||GFS which seems to have two separate surges of heavier precip. Euro op looked somewhat stronger with the high pressure so that likely had a hand in kind of focusing on the southern tier more. The surface "low" you see west of the mountains is part of the overall low pressure area but the colder denser air draining down via the high pressure in place gives it that two low look. This is an A with a pretty weak surface low. Yea, its very weak but if you notice the SLP in the gulf just sort of hangs around while the precip cuts off up north a bit after 48. On 57 it shows the low in SC and 3 hours later it is off NJ and scoots out to sea. I guess the point of my post is that this is not a typical Gulf low and that this really is a bit of a hybrid overrunning situation with potential big changes last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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