Jns2183 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Man it felt balmy in the sun. The clouds rolled in and I feel the wet cold in my bones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Euro is ALL SNOW now!! . Totally all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Man it felt balmy in the sun. The clouds rolled in and I feel the wet cold in my bones . Snow is getting killed. My garden is bare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, canderson said: Snow is getting killed. My garden is bare. It will be coming back on Thursday prep the garden! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This is what you like to see!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Superstorm said: This is what you like to see! . It's coming Superstorm. Unless we get a 24hr major shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 On 2/14/2021 at 1:24 PM, Itstrainingtime said: I made a post last night basically saying that I was moving on from the upcoming week and focusing on the end of the month. I deleted it moments later because I just had a feeling about Thursday. I'm optimistic that something good comes from that. I like the flow aloft MUCH better than I did at any point for Tuesday's storm. #itshappeningthursday Exactly 48 hours later... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Exactly 48 hours later...Bingo!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 It's fascinating how these events can change so much as we head into game time. This had been looking like a fairly quick hitter but now seems to be morphing into a prolonged, almost two-parter, type of storm with a nice initial thump thursday morning, then a bit of a wind down period later in the day thursday, followed by some backbuilding precipitation that runs through thursday night perhaps even lasting into friday morning as the coastal gets going. Trending colder as well to these eyes. Either way, all the guidance agrees that we are in for a nice winter storm. Now, how the heck am I going to get up to the Poconos on thursday ha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Dang EURO has a Monday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 When one of the best METs is on board, I start to REALLY get excited.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: When one of the best METs is on board, I start to REALLY get excited. . He says quick hitting but models seem to be slowing this down as well today. But always like his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Lol watch this one trend suppressed after last one made a run through strong polar high. Weather can be tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Lol watch this one trend suppressed after last one made a run through strong polar high. Weather can be tricky. no where near suppressed. In fact the trending is the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, paweather said: no where near suppressed. In fact the trending is the opposite. I don't think we'll miss this watching it all go south of us. However, the best forcing initially is "trending" south, at least on the models. The first burst of snow associated with the frontogenesis is actually targeting DC south. We still snow but not at the rate it will further south...initially. We end up with more as we snow longer and hopefully with less mix, but he's not completely wrong in that aspect. It's also very possible that the thumpiest of the initial thump moves back north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I don't think we'll miss this watching it all go south of us. However, the best forcing initially is "trending" south, at least on the models. The first burst of snow associated with the frontogenesis is actually targeting DC south. We still snow but not at the rate it will further south...initially. We end up with more as we snow longer and hopefully with less mix, but he's not completely wrong in that aspect. It's also very possible that the thumpiest of the initial thump moves back north as well. I think we are getting into such minor details. Every model today outside of the NAM was all snow for us for the most part. We do get into heavier bands on some models and will likely. EURO snows until Friday morning. 6-8" 8-10" I think we would all be happy. I think it is all minor now in the details. Horst calling for 5-10". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 We had roughly 4 tenths of an inch of ice accrual last night and several mid size limbs snapping and coming down, but combo of some sun and 40ish degrees have nicely melted most out of the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, paweather said: I think we are getting into such minor details. Every model today outside of the NAM was all snow for us for the most part. We do get into heavier bands on some models and will likely. EURO snows until Friday morning. 6-8" 8-10" I think we would all be happy. I think it is all minor now in the details. Horst calling for 5-10". Agree with this and PSU pointed out that the trend today is south with the big thump but also trending to more coastal interaction for us. It’s been a net positive. We don’t flirt as closely with the sleet line and get in on some coastal action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Agree with this and PSU pointed out that the trend today is south with the big thump but also trending to more coastal interaction for us. It’s been a net positive. We don’t flirt as closely with the sleet line and get in on some coastal action. Thanks, this is exactly what I was trying to say but failed. Lousy trainer I am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 It’s time to get Nam’ed. If this is really happening, I want to see some crazy nam run that shows 12-18”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 It’s time to get Nam’ed. If this is really happening, I want to see some crazy nam run that shows 12-18”. Lmbo, might get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 WSW in MD/DC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Holy wind, batman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 39 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: It’s time to get Nam’ed. If this is really happening, I want to see some crazy nam run that shows 12-18”. Nam is pointing out who he is going to Nam. The LSV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Gotta love this setup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 CTP weighs in....... .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 3:00pm update for the Thurs/Fri storm: Models are shifting the track of the low pressure more south and towards the coast than past runs. From this, the axis of heaviest QPF in theory will shift southeast. We ever so slightly bumped down totals in the NW and bumped up totals in the southeast following the recent trend in a more southerly Miller A type track. This would favor more snow in our South/Southeast counties, but there is still time for the track to shift around. Models have been trending colder as well, but based on how the models initially showed this past storm colder and it ended up be very warm, I`m skeptical that this will be an all snow event. Soundings show a warm nose poking up into the Lower Susquehanna Thursday night, so included the chance of freezing rain and sleet for overnight TThursday. Again some uncertainty exists in how far north and west this wintry mix will go, but if the cold trend stays the mix may be confined to just our southeast counties. Confidence is increasing in an impactful winter storm occurring before sunrise Thursday and continuing until Friday morning, with lingering light snow showers in the mountains Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Gotta love this setup: That’s a Miller A all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Forecast has gusts as high as 31, just had several past 40. And still blowing strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: That’s a Miller A all the way CASH! You called it. Nam'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I have been reading a variety of start times. This is about a 6-7 am start time for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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