paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: LOL. I cannot even tell what the JMA is doing in the 24 hour jumps but 850 does look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, dj88 said: Just went to an ice storm warning as well. Is a half inch of freezing rain realistic? Yea it's def attainable in the warning area. The main consequences of the models trending NW the last several runs are aloft, with much more robust warming at the 850mb and 925mb level, especially looking at today's runs. Surface CAD is still about the same which will maintain freezing rain, and I know it's above freezing in some spots right now but dew points are mostly in the 20s and this is coming overnight as well. I'm hoping more sleet is able to nose down and knock freezing rain down some here. This is my point and click for tonight, then 12ºF for a low tomorrow night, ugh. Quote Freezing rain and sleet before 4am, then a chance of freezing rain between 4am and 5am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet after 5am. Low around 28. East wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.3 to 0.5 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of around an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Well, I guess for Thursday at least we can use the Sun Angle excuse. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Weirdly MDT/Harrisburg isn’t in the ice storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Cloudy...36/30. Almost soupy out. Quite foggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Cloudy...36/30. Almost soupy out. Quite foggy. 30/28 on my side with a light glaze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 What is it like @canderson down in TX right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: 30/28 on my side with a light glaze I am being haunted by being on the other side of South Mountain. My valley is not a good one for weak CAD. We are down to less than 1/4 mile visibility. Snow pack killer today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I am being haunted by being on the other side of South Mountain. My valley is not a good one for weak CAD. We are down to less than 1/4 mile visibility. Snow pack killer today. You're not kidding - it really struck me on my way home from the office how the landscape changed today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 It is always Octoberfest for the win: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I am being haunted by being on the other side of South Mountain. My valley is not a good one for weak CAD. We are down to less than 1/4 mile visibility. Snow pack killer today. I never realized it was that different. It may help me get more ice for this event but it helped you during the big storm where I had sleet with the se flow and you stayed snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, paweather said: What is it like @canderson down in TX right now? Bad. 12” snow for my parents but power is out all over - go look at outage maps from DFW to Houston. My brother!s power has been out since 3 am and every sink has frozen pipes now. He left them dripping but they still froze solid. Parents might get to below zero tonight. Winds in the 20s too. Keep Texans in your thoughts. They and things there aren’t built for this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: I never realized it was that different. It may help me get more ice for this event but it helped you during the big storm where I had sleet with the se flow and you stayed snow Yea, being a little farther west helped me score earlier. Cad in particular is terrible here and when SLP's come up from the S/W I cave to taint pretty quickly. You are also quite a bit father north than I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: You're not kidding - it really struck me on my way home from the office how the landscape changed today. Yea, 45 and dry would have taken less snow than that 35-40 and saturated day here. I think we lost 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I was just looking at the newest update for Williamsport. After midnight the temperature will be 33-34 all night and we are supposed to get over half an inch of plain rain. I sure hope that's right and none of it is freezing rain. This is not what I was expecting but I guess many here are thinking that. Our James V. Brown Library here closes early or all day over very little snow but today they were closed all day over nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I am going to have to Deb and throw out this DP map and really question major Ice in Southern PA. Most people are nearly saturated and most DP's are in the 30's now. This is a DP map, FYI. Not air temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambria County Wx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 33 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Yea it's def attainable in the warning area. The main consequences of the models trending NW the last several runs are aloft, with much more robust warming at the 850mb and 925mb level, especially looking at today's runs. Surface CAD is still about the same which will maintain freezing rain, and I know it's above freezing in some spots right now but dew points are mostly in the 20s and this is coming overnight as well. I'm hoping more sleet is able to nose down and knock freezing rain down some here. This is my point and click for tonight, then 12ºF for a low tomorrow night, ugh. I'm really hoping for more sleet also. Plus I'm banking on hopefully crawling to the freezing mark. Usually around here the real bad ice is confined to Ebensburg, Cresson, Coupon, Richland areas due to higher elevation....usually we sneak above freezing due to our lower elevation(1594). But hoping that holds true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Had a high of 36 for a while now, down to 33. Hope the ZR is limited until the warm up. At least the temps today warmed some objects up a little and it is foggy here also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, canderson said: Bad. 12” snow for my parents but power is out all over - go look at outage maps from DFW to Houston. My brother!s power has been out since 3 am and every sink has frozen pipes now. He left them dripping but they still froze solid. Parents might get to below zero tonight. Winds in the 20s too. Keep Texans in your thoughts. They and things there aren’t built for this. Geez. I hope all remain safe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I am going to have to Deb and throw out this DP map and really question major Ice in Southern PA. Most people are nearly saturated and most DP's are in the 30's now. This is a DP map, FYI. Not air temp. I really think ICE down here is not even an event. Writing was on the wall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 43 minutes ago, canderson said: Weirdly MDT/Harrisburg isn’t in the ice storm warning. I live at the Dauphin/Northumberland county line so I'm 500ft from the ice storm warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Sweetness: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: I live at the Dauphin/Northumberland county line so I'm 500ft from the ice storm warning. Sweet - buy a lotto ticket! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Sweetness: GFS keeps most of us out of regular rain. Not a big snow but mostly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Back to snow @ 12z Friday. Great HH run for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: GFS keeps most of us out of regular rain. Not a big snow but mostly frozen. It would be major but a good thump concrete, and then back to snow for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Stolen from MA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Here is the 18z GFS 10-1 ratio map just for this storm on Thursday into Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I didn’t see the 12z Euro & 12z EPS posted from earlier... so here they are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The 18z Para GFS is on board the snow train as well ... Choo .... Choo!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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