sauss06 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I mean...3 days ago, YOU were under several inches of snow for tonight's storm. How much are you expecting now? It doesn't matter what you post - how many times this year has 4-8" been reduced to 3-5" to be reduced to 2-3" and then to nothing? Do you realize how far you'll need to drive to see snow tonight? i'd go to Candersons parents house 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Road Trip to Detroit tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: For tonight's storm the southern extend of the snow zone has shifted northwest like 250 miles over the past 3 days... The models that kept the primary more dominant into the Ohio Valley (CMC comes to mind) will probably score better on this system from what we are seeing in short term trends. The Euro had a weak surface reflection get into Ohio but had (apparently) incorrectly started the transfer near the Delmarva and turning surface winds here sooner than what is probably going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 We talked about this last week, I think, living on the edge of p types. It is going to come down to game time with these models it is the winter pattern of sorts with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i'd go to Candersons parents house Truth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 When in doubt turn to the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM gives serious pause to Thursday. Way more amped and likely zero snow here as depicted. Because it's keying all of the energy on the lead vort heading west, our winds are very unfavorably out of the SW. (just as Nut said a few hours ago) I liked this threat yesterday assuming NE flow with confluence - we need that or we're cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: NAM gives serious pause to Thursday. Way more amped and likely zero snow here as depicted. Because it's keying all of the energy on the lead vort heading west, our winds are very unfavorably out of the SW. (just as Nut said a few hours ago) I liked this threat yesterday assuming NE flow with confluence - we need that or we're cooked. Between the Globals and HI-Res models it is ridiculous right now in differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I know it’s the long range NAM, but it was absolutely the first model that sniffed out how progressive this system would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The ICON is a good ole fashion rainstorm tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Meanwhile at my parents’ in East Texas it’s 8 degrees and they have 9” snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Meanwhile at my parents’ in East Texas it’s 8 degrees and they have 9” snow. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, paweather said: The ICON is a good ole fashion rainstorm tonight and tomorrow. So is the Nam, GFS, Rgem, Hrrr, etc....Nam gets a light period of Frz before rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I lost interest on the Monday/Tuesday thing 3 or 4 days ago. I never really believed the snow or ice that was being shown on models (at least for LSV).More interest for Thursday. I do feel there will be a good thump of snow. Just how much and how long we hold on will be the key.We will switch over to sleet or sleet/freezing rain and over to drizzle/dry slot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: So is the Nam, GFS, Rgem, Hrrr, etc....Nam gets a light period of Frz before rain. Yep. What was modeled last week with the Monday/Tuesday system isn't now. This low cuts west and that is a given for warm air in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The ICON is nicely on board for Thursday so that should make everyone happy now! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambria County Wx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Moderate snow falling here. Looks like maybe a coating so far. Not looking forward to all the sleet and freezing rain tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 WOW, GFS is a major snowstorm south of us through 75. A bit of suppression. Moderate snow in LSV. Edit-Heavier snow gets up into PA a bit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Flip at 0z on the GFS. but a good front end thump I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Nice Snow map LOL. Let's hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Nice Snow map LOL. Let's hope! You know that includes ice, right? :-). Its more like 5-7" on Pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: You know that includes ice, right? :-). Its more like 5-7" on Pivotal. yeah sleet/ice. I'll take it all just will be a concrete yard better than dang wet. :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I guess it is time to look beyond this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Para looks to be the same as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, paweather said: Para looks to be the same as the GFS. Heaviest snow looks to target areas to our south. Right where we want it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Heaviest snow looks to target areas to our south. Right where we want it Yeah not buying that at all. I think per GFS and Para they get a front end thump that is good for us. This low is coming north and attacking the high to our north. There is no suppression worries at least right now. It is actually a good sign to see the level of cold air drawn down into the MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Here' the map with no sleet. I used Kuchera because temps are in the low 20's for nearly all of the snow portion. About 8-10" for all of us. Roughly same as previous 0Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said: Here' the map with no sleet. I used Kuchera because temps are in the low 20's for nearly all of the snow portion. About 8-10" for all of us. Roughly same as previous 0Z. Hey Carlisle, That is actually 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 26 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Heaviest snow looks to target areas to our south. Right where we want it I feel much more comfortable seeing it south than north - especially in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Hey Carlisle, That is actually 6Z. Oops! Fooled again. I'll go look and see if there are any significant differences... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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