Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: feel out da room???? lol I guess thats the psu thing you guys were chattin about? Dunno man, I just dont want to get set up once again. Yes its been a decent run, but down here in the lsv its not been near as good as what you snow hogs have been getting.... and yeah....I hate mondays (except the ones that are holidays ) Well, you have Horst on your side which definitely gives me pause. He's been saying that Thursday is a rainer in Lanco. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @pasnownut Here are more “non snow maps” just for you! I present the 6z Euro good sir... High pressure placement is even better & 850 temps are even colder as the good precip moves in. You know I'm just busting....but I'm trying to not set hopes too high. Yes we get a thump verbatim, but one needs reminded of how many "good looking" storms have gone north this year. Thats my worry bud, and I'm stickin to it. You bring this one in Blizz. I'm rootin for ya, but would be lying if I said i wasn't nervous. Heads for more coffee............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 As I said in my first post- Thursday is tenuous. It's a thread the needle deal for sure as we'll only have a small window of opportunity before we lose the air above our heads... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @pasnownut you are looking at 0z Friday which is well after the front end snow thump damage is done Thursday am into afternoon, Most models do show us mixing Thursday PM I agree, we should mix, but not until After we get a good snow thump! so heres the razors edge max thumpage panel that will adjust north like 75 miles till go time. I/we will be well south of the line where magic happens. With ridging in place, that screams taint at best. Just not enough wiggle for me to wanna jiggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Well, you have Horst on your side which definitely gives me pause. He's been saying that Thursday is a rainer in Lanco. thats just great.... #we r debbies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This looks Plenty cold leading in to the good precip Thursday am on the 6z EPS More “non snow maps” It sure looks like cold to....well... anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: so heres the razors edge max thumpage panel that will adjust north like 75 miles till go time. I/we will be well south of the line where magic happens. With ridging in place, that screams taint at best. Just not wiggle for me to wanna jiggle. Again... 18z is after a good chunk of the snow thump already moves through! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Again... 18z is after a good chunk of the snow thump already moves through! I know, I veiwed precip panels, but to get 4" and watch it all wash away.....meh. Guess what i'm sayin is verbatim is a far cry from reality...especially w/ models of late, so I take them w/ a large dose of caution. Thats all. It's yours to bring home. I'm just being real and sharing my worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Back to tonight, does everyone feel that this cold air will get scoured out of the Susquehanna Valley to avert major problem with ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: It's yours to bring home. I'm just being real and sharing my worries. Guess what i'm sayin is verbatim is a far cry from reality...especially w/ models of late, so I take them w/ a large dose of caution. Thats all. Here are Better maps of the good old 6z GFS that you thought didn’t look so good. Here are the 12z Thursday surface & 850 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Here are the 6z GFS surface & 850 temps at 18z Thursday. Still plenty cold even south of the MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Back to tonight, does everyone feel that this cold air will get scoured out of the Susquehanna Valley to avert major problem with ice? I am not real gung ho on tonight being a big deal on the roads at least. It will "help" the ice being at night but its above freezing at many LSV locations right now. Low pushing into S/W PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Here are the 6z GFS surface precip panels for 12z & 18z Thursday. The majority of the snow thump has already happened by 18z Thursday in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 We need to survive today’s model runs for Thursday. This is the range the past couple of storms where things trended the wrong way. currently it’s freezing rain and 29 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 After all of that, here is 1 snow map to show on the 6z GFS that most of the LSV snow has already occurred by 18z Thursday. Yes, this map ends at 18z Thursday from the 6z GFS. I don’t care what happens after this if I have over 7 inches of snow on the ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Back to tonight, does everyone feel that this cold air will get scoured out of the Susquehanna Valley to avert major problem with ice? currently 33 w/ dp of 23. todays high is supposed to be.....33. evap cooling may drop temp breifly, but wind is SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I know, I veiwed precip panels, but to get 4" and watch it all wash away.....meh. Guess what i'm sayin is verbatim is a far cry from reality...especially w/ models of late, so I take them w/ a large dose of caution. Thats all. It's yours to bring home. I'm just being real and sharing my worries. You woke up as me today. I don't disagree with anything you're suggesting. I thought yesterday I would take my skeptic hat off...I didn't realize that you were waiting to put it on so soon! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: We need to survive today’s model runs for Thursday. This is the range the past couple of storms where things trended the wrong way. currently it’s freezing rain and 29 here I agree. If we don't see bleeding today I'll feel better. Even if we're in the "snow zone" tomorrow but have lost ground from where we're at now, I'm taking my skeptic hat back from Nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here are the 6z GFS surface & 850 temps at 18z Thursday. Still plenty cold even south of the MD line. and 540 line running right along I80 at same timestamp w/ a steady SW wind. Ice ICE baby. sleet n zr at 24-25 deg. BTW this is the "money" panel that shows your front end lovin. Its beyond a razors edge IMO. I'm not here to argue, so dont think I am. We normally sit on same side of the snow fence, but think we need to temper expectations. Thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 King Nam now takes the low up into Eastern Ohio overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I agree. If we don't see bleeding today I'll feel better. Even if we're in the "snow zone" tomorrow but have lost ground from where we're at now, I'm taking my skeptic hat back from Nut. lols.. you can have it bud. As much as i want and love snow, I'm a realist to the core, and that's how I roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: King Nam now takes the low up into Eastern Ohio overnight. NAM also looked last night like it was going to be farther N/W of other guidance for Thursday. NAM is riding the hot hand right now... Sorta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: NAM also looked last night like it was going to be farther N/W of other guidance for Thursday. NAM is riding the hot hand right now... Sorta. Yea, Nam is not enthused about Thursday but I am hoping it is going to correct on that....but we are indeed on the edge not getting snow Thursday ala what the Nam does but being there means we also could jackpot with that whole "you have to smell the sleet to get big snow" line of thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: NAM also looked last night like it was going to be farther N/W of other guidance for Thursday. NAM is riding the hot hand right now... Sorta. I see what you did there..... not funny.....but true. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I don’t know what else to post... some of you guys would still be worried on precip type if we were 5 degrees with -20 at 850s ... Lol ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, Nam is not enthused about Thursday but I am hoping it is going to correct on that....but we are indeed on the edge not getting snow Thursday ala what the Nam does but being there means we also could jackpot with that whole "you have to smell the sleet to get big snow" line of thinking. and to get that thumpage in marginal thermal profiles....we need best lift/forcing. Verbatim (my new favorite word), we dont have that down here. I80 does and only briefly. Sorry guys. I'm not wanting to poo poo. I want a good snow/sleet event as much as ya'll do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I don’t know what else to post... some of you guys would still be worried on precip type if we were 5 degrees with -20 at 850s ... Lol ! Blizz, I think everyone is just discussing model output, trends and climatology. A few days ago tonight's system looked like a bad ice storm if not a snow storm and now its looking a lot more wet and a lot less ice for at least the Southeastern part of the state. I know there will be some areas that hold on to frz longer due to being valley bound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I don’t know what else to post... some of you guys would still be worried on precip type if we were 5 degrees with -20 at 850s ... Lol ! I mean...3 days ago, YOU were under several inches of snow for tonight's storm. How much are you expecting now? It doesn't matter what you post - how many times this year has 4-8" been reduced to 3-5" to be reduced to 2-3" and then to nothing? Do you realize how far you'll need to drive to see snow tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 For tonight's storm the southern extend of the snow zone has shifted northwest like 250 miles over the past 3 days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I mean...3 days ago, YOU were under several inches of snow for tonight's storm. How much are you expecting now? It doesn't matter what you post - how many times this year has 4-8" been reduced to 3-5" to be reduced to 2-3" and then to nothing? Do you realize how far you'll need to drive to see snow tonight? I do indeed... just having some fun and posting model output to get the whole story out there for the snow & temps part of the event on Thursday. I am good... we are well above normal snow for the date. I am just not wired to worry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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