Ruin Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 hours ago, Voyager said: If you look at the ice hazard maps for the entire state (not just the CWA), Carbon County gets .25 to .50" of ice while Schuylkill gets .10 to .20". I guess the ice storm will stop right at the county line, which is how it's depicted on the map...lol yeah i never understood that stupid reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Wow this non stop nw sprint is getting unreal. Hopefully the late night run stops it. If not this could be a Detroit special and we move on to Thursday looking for white gold and not ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 this ice doesn't look good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM is a big dry slot so lets just move on to Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Agreed. It seems like a lot of the meso's are putting out some crazy ice accretions. Much higher than the NWS has. But, in my experience, the ice is usually far less than even what the NWS forecasts for me. It seems like we almost always get to a 33 surface temp quicker than indicated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, Voyager said: Agreed. It seems like a lot of the meso's are putting out some crazy ice accretions. Much higher than the NWS has. But, in my experience, the ice is usually far less than even what the NWS forecasts for me. It seems like we almost always get to a 33 surface temp quicker than indicated. i probably should have posted his tweet he had for this. apparently he's using a algorithm that more accurately predicts how much ice will fall compared to what the models are actually showing so what i posted is actually the lower end of what the hrrr was showing. i do agree ice is really hard to forecast and we always usually get much less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 IMO models can’t handle ice accretion well. NWS is much better at forecasting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, basehore said: Wow this non stop nw sprint is getting unreal. Hopefully the late night run stops it. If not this could be a Detroit special and we move on to Thursday looking for white gold and not ice. Yea it's not going to get that far over, it's too cold there lol. However, pretty much all guidance has moved to running this surface low up the west side of the Apps basically up to SW PA before it shows any signs of jumping to the coast. That's not going to cut it, we need this to stay under PA. Really the only difference this makes for central PA is it just makes thing's icier (more freezing rain) since there is enough of a CAD setup to hang in surface temps near or below freezing over all the area for a good portion of the event before maybe spiking above freezing into the LSV below the turnpike right at the end. This is going to affect the northern tier's snow accumulation's some as the mixing is likely going to drive pretty far into northern PA now with a track like that. Still should be a half decent snowfall up there though. A stripe somewhere in the central counties is probably going to see a decent sleet accumulation (1-2") where somewhat deeper cold likes to stay anchored. The silver lining? The majority of the main wave of precip associated with the surface low Monday night is out of the area in about 10hrs or so. Then we can focus in on the next incoming mess Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Thinking higher ice accumulation even up here now, inch of precip could be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I'm focusing on Thursday's storm right now...and it's looking quite promising that many of us have a significant snowfall with 6-12" for almost all of our subforum. For this snow map, all the snow amounts on an arc from Altoona to State College to Williamsport to Scranton running south and east are all from the Thursday storm. It only goes over to rain for a few hours at the end early Friday when temps crawl up into the mid 30's. Also, looking at Tuesday's storm, any ice accumulations we see are all going to melt as temps shoot up into the low to mid 40's for a few hours Tuesday afternoon before retreating back down below freezing. Other good news is that temps are only in the low 20's during all of the snow portion of the storm and then begin to rise as the transition to sleet, freezing rain and finally to rain takes place overnight into Friday morning. Temps Friday only peak in the mid 30's before crashing back down below freezing later Friday and then remain below freezing continuously through to Monday afternoon. I'm letting myself get "a little excited" for this one for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 New 0z HREF showing support for upgrading that swath of watches to what would likely be an ice storm warning. This is the accrual algorithm. 24 hr snowfall: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The 0z GFS & GFS Para look great for our front end snow thump early Thursday. I like where the LSV is sitting this run with the old GFS bullseye slightly north & the Para bullseye slightly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Can't help but marvel at the craziness of this weather event down in Texas. San Antonio socked in with heavy snow and FOURTEEN DEGREES. Brownsville, TX sitting colder than MDT right now at 32ºF and reporting light snow. The Brownsville NWS was saying in their discussion their ASOS sites aren't even equipped with freezing rain sensors bc well, guess that stuff never happens down there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Freezing rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 https://weather.com/weather/alerts/localalerts/l/bcbef9dd6735313b38526794638037c4c7c0a7073f6a132db0d3d6e72d718bae?phenomena=TSL&significance=S&areaid=PAZ057&office=KCTP&etn=0000 downgraded us to a wwa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The 0z Euro was great with the front end thump of snow for the LSV on Thursday. This run keeps the LSV as snow until mid afternoon Thursday before the mixing gets underway in the southern tier. Here is the 4pm Thursday panel. The snow map is nice because it gives us room for a north shift to not hurt too much at this range in terms of snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The 6z GFS is impressive as well and it gives room for adjustments in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The ensembles are continuing to ramp up snow amounts for Thursday. Here is the 6z GEFS & 0z EPS . The trends are getting Better as the event approaches. We are only 3 days out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This Thursday storm setting up with really good thump potential.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I'm not exactly liking this set-up for today. We have a slight glaze from a bit of light freezing rain, but the bulk of the precipitation seems to come in after sunset tonight. Seeing as I'm a second shift truck driver, conditions will be good enough for me to start my shift, then deteriorate halfway through, and then I might get caught up in a potentially bad situation. I'd rather this come in now, or at noon so I could just legitimately stay home and stay safe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: I made a post last night basically saying that I was moving on from the upcoming week and focusing on the end of the month. I deleted it moments later because I just had a feeling about Thursday. I'm optimistic that something good comes from that. I like the flow aloft MUCH better than I did at any point for Tuesday's storm. #itshappeningthursday Keeping those positive vibes going! This is still a somewhat precarious setup, and timing is critical, but for now... #itshappeningthursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Keeping those positive vibes going! This is still a somewhat precarious setup, and timing is critical, but for now... #itshappeningthursday Dunno....By thursday, it may be a state college to Erie special..at best. The norther adjustments are just relentless, and quite frankly....pissin me off. Go loop the GFS...thursday setup looks alot like tonights. I just dont feel it like you do. Hope I'm wrong but someone needs to show me something more than snow maps to make me "feel better". too much ridging and HP like tonight wont anchor. I feel like Thursday may end up at best, slightly south of tonights mess. Sorry to piss in ya'lls morning cheerios, but I just dont see anything thats going to keep from getting cut once again. 500's for tonight. Thurday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 @pasnownut the difference is the Arctic air gets to move in by Wednesday after this early week storm to set the stage for better CAD for Thursday. We have a good amount of room to maneuver. Heck the Para right now is targeting South of the MD line with the best snow. Right now there is a major model Op & Ensemble consensus for a solid front end thump of snow on Thursday. This is 3 days out, not 3 weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Dunno....By thursday, it may be a state college to Erie special..at best. The norther adjustments are just relentless, and quite frankly....pissin me off. Go loop the GFS...thursday setup looks alot like tonights. I just dont feel it like you do. Hope I'm wrong but someone needs to show me something more than snow maps to make me "feel better". too much ridging and HP like tonight wont anchor. I feel like Thursday may end up at best, slightly south of tonights mess. Sorry to piss in ya'lls morning cheerios, but I just dont see anything thats going to keep from getting cut once again. 500's for tonight. Oh boy you are up the creek now. You did not feel out the room before posting this! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This set up looks very good for a front end thump of snow on Thursday even looking at the old GFS. A large area of High pressure to the north, a moisture laden storm developing well to the south and good 850 temps extending deep into central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Oh boy you are up the creek now. You did not feel out the room before posting this! Someone woke up on the wrong side of the bed in Lancaster County! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @pasnownut the difference is the Arctic air gets to move in by Wednesday after this early week storm to set the stage for better CAD for Thursday. We have a good amount of room to maneuver. Heck the Para right now is targeting South of the MD line with the best snow. Right now there is a major model Op & Ensemble consensus for a solid front end thump of snow on Thursday. This is 3 days out, not 3 weeks! confluence is further north on thusday to my snakebit eyes. Yes it is a bit more pronounced, but verbatim its another norther deal for most. I dont see the arctic air you do, but ok. tonight thusday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 @pasnownut Here are more “non snow maps” just for you! I present the 6z Euro good sir... High pressure placement is even better & 850 temps are even colder as the good precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Oh boy you are up the creek now. You did not feel out the room before posting this! feel out da room???? lol I guess thats the psu thing you guys were chattin about? Dunno man, I just dont want to get set up once again. Yes its been a decent run, but down here in the lsv its not been near as good as what you snow hogs have been getting.... and yeah....I hate mondays (except the ones that are holidays ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 @pasnownut you are looking at 0z Friday which is well after the front end snow thump damage is done Thursday am into afternoon, Most models do show us mixing Thursday PM I agree, we should mix, but not until After we get a good snow thump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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